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There’s an eternity Seriously. Odds always favor OTS, but it’s too early to lock in any model or ensemble solution.

Thanks. Yeah its the usual aging treated lumber. I replaced some a few years ago, now a few more. They were originally nailed and ofc the ends of the boards split, the nails rust away and the top of the joists start to rot. Repairing that, doing some sistering in some cases, and offsetting the new boards as much as possible so the ends are attached to different joists. And using deck screws ofc. Any experience in cleaning log cabins? Can't power wash-maybe at very low pressure- but no one I have hired ever does it right. Ends up uneven and with streaks and I have to go over it anyway. What I have always done myself is scrub the logs from bottom up with oxyclean and warm water by hand and rinse, then using a ladder as I go higher and continuing the process(scaffolding would be easier and safer lol). Works great but very laborious and it has gotten really old. I use a tinted Woodguard finish(oil based penetrating) and brush it on, which is also getting old. The result is fantastic but fuck am I getting tired of doing it every few years. The finish last longer than that but with all the farming around here, plus tree debris/pollen it gets dark and skanky looking pretty quick.

We’re onto winter

Nicee I appreciate the input!!

So I guess we just have to live with the fact that smoke is always near. Recording 2025-08-09 143644.mp4

Next time you do the Beartooth’s you’ll only be 2 hours away from me! Felt amazing last night rolling into Billings with no humidity and low 60’s. Walked to downtown and back and didn’t sweat, I could get use to this lol.

Trade seems to be early fall cold front with gorgeous weather or cat 5 up the Bay

Gorgeous here in Riverdale, NJ as well. Spend 2.5 hours pool side this AM. May go again later this afternoon. Definitely will be there again tomorrow AM.

Euro starts out wayyyy too far northeast. If that's correct it's Bermuda or bust.

Not enough time to wobble a bit?

Feels like October out there. So weird as they kept saying it was going to be hot again by the end of the week. Need some rain but other than that pretty much perfect.

Ginxy probably could.

Ha yeah that wasn't meant for you to answer. It was more of a forum question if anyone could verify.

May-July has high-level similarities to a 2013/2022 blend. Would be a fairly severe winter, and probably not a La Nina technically, more cold-neutral. It's the pseudo cold AMO/Atlantic May-July look with strong highs by NE Asia. It is dislocated further south on the Pacific side though. CFS has essentially La Nina conditions until Dec, then neutral. For Albuquerque I've always found a strong direct correlation in La Nina in Nov-Feb cold days/cold waves (5F or more below daily mean) and ACE. But it doesn't work in Neutrals. ACE ahead of 2024-25 was 161.6. Cold day projection (ACE correlation image is from my 2022 winter forecast) Cold Days = (-0.1177 x 161.6) + (42.063) = 23 cold days Nov-Feb (daily average 5F or more below avg). So the 2024-25 La Nina strengthened the long-term trend. Observed cold days in 2024-2025 - Nov: 6 Dec: 1 Jan: 17 Feb: 0 Total: 24 Love it or hate it, the math is the math. Right now there is no sign of an imminent huge burst in the Atlantic and we should have borderline La Nina conditions in the Fall. I don't expect the actual winter to be cold here, but I could see Oct 15-Jan 15 running cold, or Feb 15-Apr 15 running cold. Most likely outcome? Three of five months in those two periods cold here from what I can see. In 2022, we had already had a major hurricane by now and finished below 100 ACE for what its worth while 2013 had no hurricanes until September. I can see the late Fall turning pretty cold nationally after a warm start. But it should be centered on the Plains and only bleed out to the West and East.

Tonight might be the coolest night of this this beautiful stretch of weather, with HP nearly overhead, calm winds, and mostly clear skies.

I restore decks for a living. Let me know if you need anything. This is rare air for this time of the year. It's amazing out here.

You could tell pretty early that the 12z Euro would be OTS. All just noise at this point. No model is going to nail the strength of ridges/troughs and the placement of weaknesses at this range.

Bring it on. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1BzbQkworb/

I'm outside replacing some deck boards. Fucking amazing, except for one damn mosquito that keeps trailing me. 78/58

Euro east. It’s over.

Why are you creeping ages of posters? Amazing that they ever let you anywhere near youth sporting events. Don't they have background checks In Connecticut?

Ok…

Take it up with the author. He claims to be a climate guy??? Verification is not in my job description. Posting s*** I see on Twitter is what I do.

Hold up. Where in CT has gone 12-13 days without a dew point greater than 70F only once since 1949? I feel like we used to have entire summer months, even down there, without dew points in the 70s?

12z Euro ots