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Early discussion Winter 2014/15


SACRUS

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jerseysnow2010: remember that time 7 years ago when it snowed really hard for 12 hours?

snowlover238: yeah! it was like that time 16 years ago when it also snowed really hard for 12 hours! i got more snow 7 years ago though so it was better

jerseysnow2010: well i got more snow 16 years ago so that storm was better

euroblizzardi95: you're both wrong, there was more wind with the storm 9 years ago and there wasn't a lull so that storm was better

:weenie:

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longbeachdendrites: yeah but the storm 9 years ago had temps in the 50s the next day so it kind of sucked

jerseysnow2010: agree but the storm 4 years ago tops them all. no wind so the dendrites fell perfectly intact and didn't mess up ratios like the storm 9 years ago

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longbeachdendrites: yeah but the storm 9 years ago had temps in the 50s the next day so it kind of sucked

jerseysnow2010: agree but the storm 4 years ago tops them all. no wind so the dendrites fell perfectly intact and didn't mess up ratios like the storm 9 years ago

You should write for the oatmeal

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This storm was purely elevation dependent. Those areas away from the higher terrain received about 10-15" of very heavy wet snow, depending on where your exact location is. Once you got a few hundred feet in your pocket the snow totals dramatically increased. I remember driving up to my ex girlfriends house who lived in West Milford at the time and she had three times what I got.

 

I received over 20" in flat land, urban Queens.

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This storm was purely elevation dependent. Those areas away from the higher terrain received about 10-15" of very heavy wet snow, depending on where your exact location is. Once you got a few hundred feet in your pocket the snow totals dramatically increased. I remember driving up to my ex girlfriends house who lived in West Milford at the time and she had three times what I got.

Central Park had nearly 2 feet and other spots around the city had upwards of 20", so it wasn't all elevation dependent. I was in Manhattan that day and it was a raging blizzard. The R/S line literally split Queens in half for much of the storm and it didn't snow very much where I live until that night. But overnight it went to town as the low pivoted NW into New England and we ended up with nearly a foot of paste here. It was almost NYC's version of the April Fools storm.

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Central Park had nearly 2 feet and other spots around the city had upwards of 20", so it wasn't all elevation dependent. I was in Manhattan that day and it was a raging blizzard. The R/S line literally split Queens in half for much of the storm and it didn't snow very much where I live until that night. But overnight it went to town as the low pivoted NW into New England and we ended up with nearly a foot of paste here. It was almost NYC's version of the April Fools storm.

 

Yup. It was a very rare storm where Western Queens received more then NE Queens.

I left my house in Astoria (NW Queens at 8:00a.m.) and it had already been snowing for 2 hours with 3" on the ground. When I passed LGA, it changed to rain and in Bayside (NE Queens), it never changed over until around 11:00a.m. Only a 7-8 miles away with a 4-5 hour changeover difference.

In fact, in Astoria, it never rained 1 drop.

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I think we'll have at least 5-10 events just like 12/19/09 where Long Island and coastal NJ get slammed but northwest of I-95 has nothing but cirrus and some flurries. Just a hunch. And hey, that was a Nino winter!!

Love you, lol    

in a manly way . BTW my thoughts are the same . 

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Yup. It was a very rare storm where Western Queens received more then NE Queens.

I left my house in Astoria (NW Queens at 8:00a.m.) and it had already been snowing for 2 hours with 3" on the ground. When I passed LGA, it changed to rain and in Bayside (NE Queens), it never changed over until around 11:00a.m. Only a 7-8 miles away with a 4-5 hour changeover difference.

In fact, in Astoria, it never rained 1 drop.

It rained plenty in Long Beach-we had maybe 1.50" of rain before we had one flake. I remember on the LIRR that day that the ground became white early that afternoon just east of Jamaica station. Snow mixed in at home around 4pm, but soon after we had a break and snow did not start in earnest until that night. The heaviest was from 4am-6am; we had probably 2-3" per hour then. It was a very windy storm too, we had gusts easily over 50 mph.

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It rained plenty in Long Beach-we had maybe 1.50" of rain before we had one flake. I remember on the LIRR that day that the ground became white early that afternoon just east of Jamaica station. Snow mixed in at home around 4pm, but soon after we had a break and snow did not start in earnest until that night. The heaviest was from 4am-6am; we had probably 2-3" per hour then. It was a very windy storm too, we had gusts easily over 50 mph.

Yeah once the heavy snow took over that night (and I remember all the storm cancel calls) it snowed heavy everywhere and piled up quickly. It was the first part of the storm where elevation helped and other areas went back and forth from rain to wet snow

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Couldn't agree more. Give me 1995-96, 2002-03, 2010-11 or give me death.

 

You can keep 2009-2010, that was a terrible winter north of Rt. 80. Epic from DC to Philly.

 

 

There was a sharp gradient even in Monmouth with 2009-10. I had 72" while someone 8 miles north in northern Holmdel had 58-59".

 

Surprised you only recorded 13" with the Feb 25-26 2010 storm, I ended up with the same here.

 

We got lucky in CNJ in that we were on the northern edge of the 09-10 winter and toward the southern edge of the big totals of 10-11.

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Not only are we like only one of three cool spots on the entire planet but we're also the one farthest below normal, haha.

Well not too long ago we were basically the warmest spot on the entire globe so this kind of makes sense. It also kind of fits the global warming model that we and Europe are colder than normal.

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Central Park had nearly 2 feet and other spots around the city had upwards of 20", so it wasn't all elevation dependent. I was in Manhattan that day and it was a raging blizzard. The R/S line literally split Queens in half for much of the storm and it didn't snow very much where I live until that night. But overnight it went to town as the low pivoted NW into New England and we ended up with nearly a foot of paste here. It was almost NYC's version of the April Fools storm.

Must have been a deform band that setup and nailed that area. I can only speak for what happened out here. 13" of cement IMBY, over 30" of fluff in West Milford.

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If we can get that -EPO, weak el nino and a solid west based -NAO weenies will be coming out of the wood work in 95/96 numbers. Not saying it will be like that but its a fairly solid case should those three choose to work in tandem winter of 14/15

Why must you always go to the extreme ?  Ha .

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FWIW, CFSv2 is very warm as PB GFI posted, what's alarming is its complete flip in the pacific which should be noted and watched. 

 

Actually, the CFS does this a lot before a cold and snowy winter. It didn't do it for 2011. So if the CFS is showing a warm winter, it will gradually reverse in the next several months. 

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Why must you always go to the extreme ? Ha .

GO BIG OR GO HOME! But seriously paul am i that far off saying this upcoming winter would rock if all three of those teleconnectors worked in unison? 95/96 i threw in there because many weenies when they see a weak el nino the pants tents start popping up and when a -NAO is forecasted weenies just burst with excitement :lol: this is a general statement not a forecast mind you ;)

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GO BIG OR GO HOME! But seriously paul am i that far off saying this upcoming winter would rock if all three of those teleconnectors worked in unison? 95/96 i threw in there because many weenies when they see a weak el nino the pants tents start popping up and when a -NAO is forecasted weenies just burst with excitement :lol: this is a general statement not a forecast mind you ;)

This is why we get along so well.

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the winter doesn't have to be like 1995-96 to be a great winter...To me any winter with near or over 40" of snowfall in KNYC is a great winter...If I was going to orchestrate a winter without being to greedy it would be a winter similar to 1963-64...December was cold with snow at the right time...7" Christmas eve...January had a blizzard with over a foot of snow...After a good thaw February had frequent snowfalls with one significant accumulation...March had 5" on the 22nd...1995-96 was 1963-64 on steroids... winters with 10" or less for the season are the worst to live thru...They are...

1972-73

1988-89

1996-97

1997-98

2001-02

2011-12

 

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GO BIG OR GO HOME! But seriously paul am i that far off saying this upcoming winter would rock if all three of those teleconnectors worked in unison? 95/96 i threw in there because many weenies when they see a weak el nino the pants tents start popping up and when a -NAO is forecasted weenies just burst with excitement :lol: this is a general statement not a forecast mind you ;)

Even with all the three or four letter acronyms in the book being favorable you still need some luck to get 95-96 numbers.

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