580 replies to this topic

[Rainman]

snowstormcanuck, on 12 January 2012 - 10:42 PM, said:

Eh, this winter has been an exemplar as to why LRF should be taken with more than a grain of salt. So I'm not going to get my hopes up. But I do take solace in the fact that it can't get any worse at least.

And there were a lot of other crappy winters before 1999-00. 1994-95, 1982-83, etc. It just seem like the recent "bad" winters have been particularly bad.

I don't know man. When it comes to LRF, I think it's more about the forecaster that you follow (or the science/method that you choose to use that particular winter). Harry, for example, is mopping the floor with everyone else (as far as I can tell) so far this year, and it's not as if he took a wild guess and just got lucky. Unlike synoptic or even mesoscale meteorology, I put virtually zero value in forecaster consensus when it comes to LRF. This winter was going to be mild - 99% chance. But this mild? Ouch...I won't be a fool and say I saw it being this bad.

Look on the bright side...even if we all get dry slotted for 75% of this storm, it'll still be one of our best snows of the 2011-2012 winter season!!!

[Rainman]

Ajdos, on 12 January 2012 - 11:20 PM, said:

What a nice rain storm next week.. Very nice I like...NOT...Whatever happened to the arctic air??...this honestly sucks.....

Next week's rainstorm is pulling it south. Right now, the cold air is hardly even in Canada. Pattern change in progress. 144 hour 00z GFS brings the -20C at 850 down to the OH/MI border.

[Angrysummons]

Rainman, on 12 January 2012 - 11:31 PM, said:

Next week's rainstorm is pulling it south. Right now, the cold air is hardly even in Canada. Pattern change in progress. 144 hour 00z GFS brings the -20C at 850 down to the OH/MI border.

Hardly a surprise this winter on the GFS in the triple digit timeframe. Probably end up a bit more zonal.

[buckeye]

Rainman, on 12 January 2012 - 11:31 PM, said:

Next week's rainstorm is pulling it south. Right now, the cold air is hardly even in Canada. Pattern change in progress. 144 hour 00z GFS brings the -20C at 850 down to the OH/MI border.

I never trust a gfs arctic outbreak. posted this evening in the philly region thread:

am19psu, on 12 January 2012 - 08:18 PM, said:

Hey guys. I have a quick second. Literally, I've never seen the weeklies this warm vs. normal. Week 2 is +10 at least across the whole country. Unreal.

[BeastFromtheEast]

Angrysummons, on 12 January 2012 - 11:38 PM, said:

Hardly a surprise this winter on the GFS in the triple digit timeframe. Probably end up a bit more zonal.

Good to know, i'll get buried up in MKE and you'll be torching...

[Hoosier]

There's good agreement on it being fairly cold in the northern tier after early next week.  The question is how long it lasts and obviously the trends aren't looking very good.  I'm still going to hope that with all of that cold air in Canada that some of it can bleed south and give a colder look than what it looks like right now but low confidence.

[snowstormcanuck]

Rainman, on 12 January 2012 - 11:05 PM, said:

I don't know man. When it comes to LRF, I think it's more about the forecaster that you follow (or the science/method that you choose to use that particular winter). Harry, for example, is mopping the floor with everyone else (as far as I can tell) so far this year, and it's not as if he took a wild guess and just got lucky. Unlike synoptic or even mesoscale meteorology, I put virtually zero value in forecaster consensus when it comes to LRF. This winter was going to be mild - 99% chance. But this mild? Ouch...I won't be a fool and say I saw it being this bad.

Look on the bright side...even if we all get dry slotted for 75% of this storm, it'll still be one of our best snows of the 2011-2012 winter season!!!

Interesting thesis. But how do you determine which forecaster to follow? I know you can automatically throw out the charlatans (JB, Henry M, etc). But by accepting Harry's forecast (who I infer forecasted warm this winter?) you must believe he has some sort of statistical skill advantage over the other forecasters. How did you come to that determination? Intuition? Assessing previous forecasts?

Sorry for all the questions. Want to learn.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hoosier, on 12 January 2012 - 11:44 PM, said:

There's good agreement on it being fairly cold in the northern tier after early next week. The question is how long it lasts and obviously the trends aren't looking very good. I'm still going to hope that with all of that cold air in Canada that some of it can bleed south and give a colder look than what it looks like right now but low confidence.

I thought Chicago_Wx and I were jerks for mentioning that?

[Hoosier]

snowstormcanuck, on 12 January 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

I thought Chicago_Wx and I were jerks for mentioning that?

Let's not go there again.

[Thunder Road]

ok this dryslot can fill in any time now, thanks

[Chicago WX]

snowstormcanuck, on 12 January 2012 - 11:48 PM, said:

I thought Chicago_Wx and I were jerks for mentioning that?

Haters gonna hate.

[Hoosier]

Chicago WX, on 12 January 2012 - 11:57 PM, said:

Haters gonna hate.

GFS starting to show signs.....by 384 hours

[Chicago WX]

Hoosier, on 13 January 2012 - 12:01 AM, said:

GFS starting to show signs.....by 384 hours

I'll take that into consideration.

[Mottster]

Really not much to complain about here. Ended up with just under 3", have a few 6-7" drifts around the house. Looks very winter like, I'm ready for spring now..

[SpartyOn]

God... Put this winter out of its misery. Shoot it with a fireball torch Mario style. I'm ready to start getting weenie wood over CAPE and shear values.

[michsnowfreak]

SpartyOn, on 13 January 2012 - 08:30 AM, said:

God... Put this winter out of its misery. Shoot it with a fireball torch Mario style. I'm ready to start getting weenie wood over CAPE and shear values.

The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm.

[dmc76]

michsnowfreak, on 13 January 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm.

Didn't realize not only in sports and politics to we rival Chicago... now its Snowfall...

[Powerball]

michsnowfreak, on 13 January 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm.

Yeah, but the gap has definitely been completely closed.

It's funny they got much of their seasonal snowfall in one powdery storm while we've been penny and nickeling it with numerous low ratio rain-to-snow events.

These things do have a way of evening themselve out one way or another of course...

[dmc76]

Powerball, on 13 January 2012 - 08:45 AM, said:

Yeah, but the gap has definitely been completely closed.

It's funny they got much of their seasonal snowfall in one powdery storm while we've been penny and nickeling it with numerous low ratio rain-to-snow events.

These things do have a way of evening themselve out one way or another of course...

That's why I said Boston winters are better earlier in the season. Detroit is the KING for nickle and dimes snow events.

[weatherbo]

IWX busted bigtime. The funny thing is, the writing was on the was from noon on yesterday and they continued to ride their ridiculous amounts even as I went to bed. My forecast was still for 6-9" N of hwy 30 with locally heavier amounts. I just laughed and went to bed and woke up to 3" I'd say.
Lake effect looks to be sagging southward some so maybe another 1-2" they say. It's still pretty and white and I'm happy with what fell.

[Stevo6899]

dmc76, on 13 January 2012 - 08:48 AM, said:

That's why I said Boston winters are better earlier in the season. Detroit is the KING for nickle and dimes snow events.

Agreed. As long as the snow doesnt melt for a few days ill take boston winters. Lol still at your priceless map of advisories. Its all good. We've had alot of good winters the last 10 years.

[Powerball]

I'll take a Chicago winter over a Boston or Detroit winter.

They have higher bomb potential/frequency, the winters are sunnier, AND you can still maintain good snow packs and get hit by clippers often.

Yeah, I would miss out on the nice lake effect snow squalls Detroit can get, but I'll live (it'll also mean better severe weather events).

[SpartyOn]

michsnowfreak, on 13 January 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm.

Good luck with that next storm. Looks like a rinse wash repeat of this current system. (per euro..kinda) let's let our Chicago friends enjoy this. I think it would be great if they smoke us on seasonal totals. We have no powder storms. The majority of that DTW snow was a non issue.

[SpartyOn]

Yea. I would most def take a Chicago over a Detroit winter.

[weatherpsycho]

SpartyOn, on 13 January 2012 - 10:02 AM, said:

Yea. I would most def take a Chicago over a Detroit winter.

Too similar. I would much rather have a GRR or Allegan winter.

[Alek]

michsnowfreak, on 13 January 2012 - 08:30 AM, said:

People think Im SO optimistic all the time? I will throw a f*cking fit if that happens in ORD/MKE and we get rain or mostly rain! Im going to start treating the weather gods with as much ignorance and disrespect as many others on here do. Oh, futility records blah blah blah, it doesnt matter if theres 3 months of snow chances left....cant you see? A crappy start is undeniable sign that the entire snow season will remain that way. Its probably never ever going to snow!! Maybe SSC can give me some pointers on how to piss them off just right, luckily havent had to do that in a long time in Detroit...until this winter.

[dmc76]

O.k guys we get the picture. stop burying Josh in the ground. Hes a great guy he's just getting frustrated. No big deal.. will get our winter blah blah blah

[blue60007]

Here's to hoping next weeks storm isn't rain here.

[Chicago WX]

blue60007, on 13 January 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

Here's to hoping next weeks storm isn't rain here.

It gonna rain.

Green Bay looks like a good spot right now...for snow.

[hm8]

I can't help but get frusterated when all of these kids from California and Florida here at UofM experiencing winter for the first time will think this is as bad as it usually gets

[Angrysummons]

Chicago WX, on 13 January 2012 - 02:16 PM, said:

It gonna rain.

Green Bay looks like a good spot right now...for snow.

Don't worry, February is going to be our month.

[buckeye]

it would appear the 850's near chicago are warmer than Ft. Lauderdale. Sometimes you just gotta

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[Angrysummons]

buckeye, on 13 January 2012 - 05:21 PM, said:

it would appear the 850's near chicago are warmer than Ft. Lauderdale. Sometimes you just gotta

Yeah, gotta love these truncated fantasies. Lets go 2nd half of February 2000 before February lol.

[AppsRunner]

Other than buckeye, why is Ohio included in this?

[buckeye]

looking at the euro 2m temps on accuwx... not as toasty as it might appear, albeit still toasty. Chicago gets around 55 and the 65 line is around the ohio river. 60ish in central OH