Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree with Phil, that I'm not entirely sold on the tasty solutions of the ensembles given this pattern may be something where the euro handles the synoptics better. However, the ensembles have been rather consistent for a day or so now...so that is something to take into account, esp the euro ensembles. I'd feel pretty good if I were Will and Pete..up through srn NH. I can see why they would be optimistic. The arctic airmass will help, but I hate retreating highs for my area....hate them. If we can get the vortmax to keep chugging east and stop digging and going negative tilt before New Orleans, then that would help out areas further east for sure...despite the retreating high. This high is still over 1030mb and had a nice ridging arc into New England. Yeah if this energy is going to dig to the miss. Delta I'd like to be logan11 right now. Obviously areas further east (MRG orh etc.) would be in the game but meh. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I can't stand this glitch in the configuration of the board that percludes the quoting of posts from closed threads; not sure why that is. Anyway, I can't even comprehend the ramifications of what I am leaning towards so I won't event say it. I'll just wait for a mainly rain event to derail that because climo should step in and intervene at some point. Do not know why that thread was locked anyway, that is a pattern thread this is a storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The euro op is definitely on the sw edge of the spaghetti plots at 500mb. Of course it is. I would not worry about the 84 hr NAM.....it always overamps coastals in this range; just like this past event that it tried to nuke us with in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I can't stand this glitch in the configuration of the board that percludes the quoting of posts from closed threads; not sure why that is. Anyway, I can't even comprehend the ramifications of what I am leaning towards so I won't event say it. I'll just wait for a mainly rain event to derail that because climo should step in and intervene at some point. I think there's a decent chc you'd make out ok...net gain or neutral at least...with even some of the more craptastic solutions out there right now...especially if they proved slightly too amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah its even a tad further W than the Euro was...but similar. We'll see what happens on the rest of the 12z suite, but we definitely don't want to see the 12z NAM imitated. The DGEX was a PD I, last night Garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Of course it is. I would not worry about the 84 hr NAM.....it always overamps coastals in this range; just like this past event that it tried to nuke us with in this range. No worries about it here. These solutions will change for the better or worse several times before gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Awesome graphic from the Globe today. http://www.boston.co.../?p1=News_links very nice, thanks for the link. i remember in 07-08 when our newspapers started busting out graphics like this.....good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think there's a decent chc you'd make out ok...net gain or neutral at least...with even some of the more craptastic solutions out there right now...especially if they proved slightly too amped up. I agree, but even "breaking even" isn't really breaking even because under those curcumstances, you transform a pristine winter landscape into something resembling the bottom of a toilet bowl after a heavy bout of rhea.....keep it. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Of course it is. I would not worry about the 84 hr NAM.....it always overamps coastals in this range; just like this past event that it tried to nuke us with in this range. I'm not, but I walk the line with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm not, but I walk the line with this storm. Right....not saying to discount the possibilitiy of p-type issues, but rather that the 84 hr NAM won't rob me of any sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I can't stand this glitch in the configuration of the board that precludes the quoting of posts from closed threads; not sure why that is. Anyway, I can't even comprehend the ramifications of what I am leaning towards so I won't event say it. I'll just wait for a mainly rain event to derail that because climo should step in and intervene at some point. it doesnt even matter at this point.....even if you go snow to mix, you have a great pack and a ton of water content.....so you are in fine shape for the rest of the season to make a run at 'ramifications'.....even if its not this one, there will be another one, no torch in sight. the snowiest part of the year is still to come, so you should prepare yourself......buy a ladder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What do I objectively think should happen....follow the ens, young man. What would climo dictate at this point....clear the storm drains. Tough dilemma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There may be 7 or so solutions out of the 51 members of the euro suite that have a solution even deeper than the euro op. Good to see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What does my weenie in me think should happen....follow the ens, young man. What would climo dictate at this point....clear the storm drains. Tough dilemma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree with Phil, that I'm not entirely sold on the tasty solutions of the ensembles given this pattern may be something where the euro handles the synoptics better. However, the ensembles have been rather consistent for a day or so now...so that is something to take into account, esp the euro ensembles. I'd feel pretty good if I were Will and Pete..up through srn NH. I can see why they would be optimistic. The arctic airmass will help, but I hate retreating highs for my area....hate them. If we can get the vortmax to keep chugging east and stop digging and going negative tilt before New Orleans, then that would help out areas further east for sure...despite the retreating high. This high is still over 1030mb and had a nice ridging arc into New England. Problem for even Will and I with a track this far west is the dry slot. Could end up being a snowfall distribution similar to Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Scott, you know me....that is really is an objective take.....if my weenie took over, I'd be discounting that because it's too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Problem for even Will and I with a track this far west is the dry slot. Could end up being a snowfall distribution similar to Boxing Day. Waaaaay too far ahead of yourself...ensure p-type, then contemplate deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 John, how's the correction vector hangn' this mornin'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 There may be 7 or so solutions out of the 51 members of the euro suite that have a solution even deeper than the euro op. Good to see I guess. What's the resolution difference between the Euro Op and Ensm.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Scott, you know me....that is really is an objective take.....if my weenie took over, I'd be discounting that because it's too good to be true. I know..just messin'. I will say that it was nice to see the ensembles hold serve. The GFS op is off its rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There may be 7 or so solutions out of the 51 members of the euro suite that have a solution even deeper than the euro op. Good to see I guess. We saw a similar ratio with respect to the Boxing day event at this stage....I remember Gibbs divulging that detail; everything ended up ots shortly thereafter, only to come back a tic too far west at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'd feel pretty good if I were Will and Pete..up through srn NH. Another run showing a little bit of snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Feb '69 Just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 What's the resolution difference between the Euro Op and Ensm.? Jeez, good question. I used to know. Maybe 32KM?? I forget..maybe someone can google it or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 corecast on FB is saying we could be facing a blizzard come wed from nyc to boston ,he has been really good this season with his forcasts. I wonder if hes a member on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Jeez, good question. I used to know. Maybe 32KM?? I forget..maybe someone can google it or something. Op is T1279/91 levs (~16km)....ens are double that with T639/62 levs (~32km). IOW the EC ens have higher resolution than the op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Op is T1279/91 levs (~16km)....ens are double that with T639/62 levs (~32km). IOW the EC ens have higher resolution than the op GFS. Oh good..I thought it was 32KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I agree with Phil, that I'm not entirely sold on the tasty solutions of the ensembles given this pattern may be something where the euro handles the synoptics better. However, the ensembles have been rather consistent for a day or so now...so that is something to take into account, esp the euro ensembles. I'd feel pretty good if I were Will and Pete..up through srn NH. I can see why they would be optimistic. The arctic airmass will help, but I hate retreating highs for my area....hate them. If we can get the vortmax to keep chugging east and stop digging and going negative tilt before New Orleans, then that would help out areas further east for sure...despite the retreating high. This high is still over 1030mb and had a nice ridging arc into New England. I feel pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 There must be a bat signal that dendrite sees when somebody has a resolution or core sample question. *POW* he's there. Kinda expecting the GFS to make its trek to its ensembles soon .. perhaps starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 SNE has to hope that a Miller B wins the day. If it does then I have no doubt you all get deconstructed again while I get another run of the mill event. If the Miller A truly does come up as the dominant low then I totally believe the close hugger or coastal plain scraping track. Either way most of SNE would get a major dump, but the latter would probably dry slot eventually or end as some mix. What do I objectively think should happen....follow the ens, young man. What would climo dictate at this point....clear the storm drains. Tough dilemma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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