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January 26-27 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Time to roll out a new thread for the upcoming storm. There are some key differences in how the energy coming out of the mid-west is handled. The GFS does not want to dig this as much as the Euro is doing hence the differences in the outcomes. Euro being a slightly warmer more interior threat and the GFS being a colder more widespread event. These details should be ironed out in the next 24-36 hours as we get into day 3-4 with the models.

12z runs will hopefully start to she d some light.

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Time to roll out a new thread for the upcoming storm. There are some key differences in how the energy coming out of the mid-west is handled. The GFS does not want to dig this as much as the Euro is doing hence the differences in the outcomes. Euro being a slightly warmer more interior threat and the GFS being a colder more widespread event. These details should be ironed out in the next 24-36 hours as we get into day 3-4 with the models.

12z runs will hopefully start to she d some light.

A meeting in the middle would seem most likely and best overall for everyones BY

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should be an interesting weekend.

everything really hinges on how far south / west the energy dropping into the plains digs early in the week. the ggem and ec continue to drive it all the way to the northern GOM and really strengthen the southern portion of the two regions of vorticity in question, which allows it to close off very far southwest...you've essentially got a negatively tilted full lat trough at like 90W...blech. the result is LP developing in the gulf, becoming a water-loaded miller A but really wrapping up and tucking very far west (relatively speaking). i would say the ec ens look a bit like the op but they just don't dig as far (not too surprising given ens vs op).

the gfs (and to some extent last night's UKMET run) just don't handle the energy this way. they swing it through but don't dig nearly as far south, and concurrently don't strengthen the vorticity max until later/further east.

one side will/should give pretty soon. all the other details won't work out for several days but whether this is more of a interior or everyone threat should be known *somewhat* soon...in a relative sense.

I had this in the other thread just before it closed.

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What do you folks think about this part...

ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD

THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE

ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF

THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE

SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL

MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO

SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

Too cold and dry???

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What do you folks think about this part...

ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD

THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE

ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF

THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE

SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL

MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO

SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

Too cold and dry???

If the euro is right...the colder and drieir the better for you.

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Good point, ray.

The author of the long term discussion at KBOX said that they are accepting the Euro version of the setup (deep digging of energy into the GOM) but then are discounting the Euro track and warmer solution that develops, presumably as a consequence of this.

Guess there really is some uncertainty here.

I fear that in the contest between the irresistible force (the GOM track with early phasing and negative tilt) and the immovable object (the Arctic HP), the latter loses a lot more than the former - but I'm a terrible pessimist and ignorant to boot.......

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What do you folks think about this part...

ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD

THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE

ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF

THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE

SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL

MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO

SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

Too cold and dry???

wall of snow...feb 6 1978. delayed but not denied

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Looks like it might be a torching rainstorm

But the ETA looks good! lol....

Lets see what the globals say, but to have the Nam move toward the Euro is cool I think. Nam can be overamped as we all know...perhaps it is our west warm amped outlier, the GFS is the east outlier and the Euro is right on target. Then it is a question of whether the synopics and teleconnections nudge the Euro colder/offshore or warmer/close to the coast.

Pretty decent chance I win either way.

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The trough axis seems awfully far west. The SREF's were much further east

Yeah its even a tad further W than the Euro was...but similar.

We'll see what happens on the rest of the 12z suite, but we definitely don't want to see the 12z NAM imitated.

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I love this discussion. Unreal.

Coming storm, another cold shot, +PNA and next shortwave diving down late week.

I have highlighted a few things for your reading pleasure.

Bid Winter Incoming Ongoing.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011

RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS

NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER

IN THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT OVER THE

WEST WHERE AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY THU/D5 AND

SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF RAPID

CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR

IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK AS RIDGING

SURGES UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN ALASKA.

FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST COAST

WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EASTERN

SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

THE 06Z GFS/GEFS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT STRETCH OF RUNS WITH A

FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE

ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS

IS QUICKER THAN THE GEFS MEAN... BUT EVEN THE MEAN IS ABOUT 12 TO

18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS

MEAN IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS

WITH ONGOING CONTINUITY. BY WED/D4... THE 00Z UKMET POSITIONS THE

LOW QUITE NICELY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER

WEST BUT TRENDING A BIT TO THE EAST RECENTLY... AND THE 00Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAS BEEN EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST ALONG THE

COAST IN RECENT RUNS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO AN INLAND RUNNER

AND TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COASTAL FRONT

DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD

ATLANTIC AIR TOWARD THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM

FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM MAKING FOR

QUITE A MESS FROM I-81 EASTWARD... BUT THE FORECAST RAIN/SNOW

LINE... AND PROBABLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AREA TOO... WILL SHIFT

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE

WORLD CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY

SLOWLY BUT STEADILY.

NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AFTER SPILLING OVER THE

WESTERN NOAM RIDGING. 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED STRONGER AS WELL. A

BLEND OF BOTH SHOULD FIT THE BILL FOR NOW. END RESULT IS LIKELY

YET ANOTHER COLD PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO ROUND

OUT THE MONTH.

FRACASSO

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I agree with Phil, that I'm not entirely sold on the tasty solutions of the ensembles given this pattern may be something where the euro handles the synoptics better. However, the ensembles have been rather consistent for a day or so now...so that is something to take into account, esp the euro ensembles.

I'd feel pretty good if I were Will and Pete..up through srn NH. I can see why they would be optimistic. The arctic airmass will help, but I hate retreating highs for my area....hate them. If we can get the vortmax to keep chugging east and stop digging and going negative tilt before New Orleans, then that would help out areas further east for sure...despite the retreating high. This high is still over 1030mb and had a nice ridging arc into New England.

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"The L/W lengths don't really offer much room for the GGEM type scenarios, particularly with the emerging -NAO in the time period drilling the escape latitude of the westerlies more under LI"

The above was from TT's writeup . That GGEM solution is similar to the 0z EC and 12z NAM. Still don't know what to make of the ensembles all being east of the OPS (GFS aside)

.ote name='ORH_wxman' timestamp='1295708030' post='336003']

Yeah its even a tad further W than the Euro was...but similar.

We'll see what happens on the rest of the 12z suite, but we definitely don't want to see the 12z NAM imitated.

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Good point, ray.

I can't stand this glitch in the configuration of the board that precludes the quoting of posts from closed threads; not sure why that is.

Anyway, I can't even comprehend the ramifications of what I am leaning towards so I won't event say it.

I'll just wait for a mainly rain event to derail that because climo should step in and intervene at some point.

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