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Pattern beyond Jan 21st


Ginx snewx

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Yeah, I was looking at that as was thinking this was more northern stream driven, with like you said, a residual southern s/w. Given the propensity as of late for the northern stream to come in more dominant, it's certainly a plausible solution.

i can't say i feel one is more likely than the other but what you end up with essentially is hybrid miller b vs. miller a and we know how that tends to work our for SNE.

the timing is key on this. if it's delayed too much we are going to see that HP slip seaward...obviously it's an arctic air mass and would be tough to scour out away from the shore...but we'd probably have all sorts of mid-level issues etc after any initial front end thump...in some respects...think boxing day storm.

would help to see that LP that develops offshore the MA on sunday really bomb and temporarily set-up shop well to our NE.

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i can't say i feel one is more likely than the other but what you end up with essentially is hybrid miller b vs. miller a and we know how that tends to work our for SNE.

the timing is key on this. if it's delayed too much we are going to see that HP slip seaward...obviously it's an arctic air mass and would be tough to scour out away from the shore...but we'd probably have all sorts of mid-level issues etc after any initial front end thump...in some respects...think boxing day storm.

would help to see that LP that develops offshore the MA on sunday really bomb and temporarily set-up shop well to our NE.

Agree on all points. Boxing Day is still my best storm. of the season. The thing that irks me this year is for the 500 to blow up by the NY Bight. Seasonal trends need to be weighed heavily. It has the potential though to be a bit colder of a solution given we a re a month later into the season and we will be dealing with a colder air mass leading up to the storm.

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gfs ensembles don't really agree with the op with respect to mid-week. they are definitely still in the dig and ride up the coast camp. low looks like it cuts over E SNE/cape/ack in general...but not before going from hatteras due north.

So mixing or it will be cold enough for all snow from Boston north?

Nevermind just saw the comments posted above.

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Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA.

eh

it goes against season trends, which you can dismiss all you want....but they are real.

i wouldnt be too worried at this range,

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Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA.

Yeah I could definitely see an amped up warmer soluution but we'll see. Certainly has some potential!

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Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA.

I'm already concerned for mixing in SE CT and the shoreline...but we'll see how things trend over the weekend. Should at least be better than the 1" slop to rain event that area saw on Tuesday.

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eh

it goes against season trends, which you can dismiss all you want....but they are real.

i wouldnt be too worried at this range,

well it's just this is another system with a pretty sick negative tilt so that alone is going to favor a more west solution than east solution, plus if this thing closes off to far south and west that wouldn't be entirely good either...south yes...west...no.

Yeah I could definitely see an amped up warmer soluution but we'll see. Certainly has some potential!

Whoever gets all snow out of this is going to get slammed.

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Early call...SW CT cashes in once again arrowheadsmiley.png

:lmao:

SW CT year. Been saying it since Boxing Day. And before I even get the chance to ask I see you're concerned for mixing issues. Man, that would be a tough one to take after the arctic plunge. I sure hope you all stay SN.

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The 12z GFS can lock this for BDR. Love the shift to concrete in the middle but we're all good.

  Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
110125/1500Z  99  06008KT  17.2F  SNOW    18:1| 0.3|| 0.3    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110125/1800Z 102  07010KT  20.5F  SNOW    20:1| 0.7|| 1.0    0.035|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110125/2100Z 105  06014KT  21.0F  SNOW    14:1| 0.3|| 1.3    0.024|| 0.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/0000Z 108  05019KT  19.9F  SNOW    10:1| 0.5|| 1.8    0.051|| 0.13     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110126/0300Z 111  05020KT  19.6F  SNOW    10:1| 0.6|| 2.4    0.055|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/0600Z 114  05023KT  20.5F  SNOW    12:1| 0.6|| 3.0    0.047|| 0.23     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/0900Z 117  04022KT  21.9F  SNOW    15:1| 2.3|| 5.2    0.154|| 0.38     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/1200Z 120  03026KT  24.1F  SNOW    16:1| 4.0|| 9.2    0.244|| 0.63     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110126/1500Z 123  02029KT  24.6F  SNOW    23:1| 5.4||14.6    0.236|| 0.86     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/1800Z 126  01031KT  25.2F  SNOW     7:1| 0.7||15.3    0.098|| 0.96     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110126/2100Z 129  36026KT  23.0F  SNOW     8:1| 0.1||15.4    0.016|| 0.98     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0000Z 132  35022KT  25.0F  SNOW    17:1| 0.3||15.7    0.016|| 0.99     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110127/0300Z 135  35019KT  27.7F  SNOW    18:1| 0.4||16.0    0.020|| 1.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0600Z 138  34014KT  27.7F  SNOW    11:1| 0.4||16.5    0.039|| 1.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110127/0900Z 141  33013KT  26.8F  SNOW    15:1| 0.5||17.0    0.035|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

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The trough axis also appears to be a bit further to the west than what we have seen with past storm this winter and given how were already seeing a negative tilt before it gets to GA that would allow potential for some decent westward movement/tracking. I suppose that strong high to our north though sliding off to our NE and the favorable teleconnector setup Tip pointed out could try to work and keep this system from coming too far west but we'll see.

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