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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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yeah i suppose that makes sense. cold is so marginal on every model though i think the max area is going to be pretty small horizontally if there is one. heck the weaker 500mb vort on the nam sorta makes sense with more waves trailing right behind it and the way this season has gone.

There will be a thin stripe where the precip is heavy enough to pile up snow and cool the surface. East of that will be rain and west will be the fringe zone. Nailing this all down will be super-tough.

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The strung out 500h is the culprit the run. Without the evaporational cooling it would warm at the surface.

i have a hard time trusting the nam in this range on those details so i guess ill toss it for now

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yeah i suppose that makes sense. cold is so marginal on every model though i think the max area is going to be pretty small horizontally if there is one. heck the weaker 500mb vort on the nam sorta makes sense with more waves trailing right behind it and the way this season has gone.

The weaker 500h does make sense with so many impulses on its heals. That doesn't mean it's right but does mean you can't just toss it.

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4-8 for dc?

I suppose I should copypasta a bit from my blog to get some better context...

Rain and mixed precipitation is a huge concern for the coastal and southern parts of the region, which is the main reason why my confidence in this forecast is low. There is a very narrow area of opportunity for higher amounts of snowfall, and while I have more confidence that there will be a narrow strip of higher totals, where that ends up being remains a mystery.

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I suppose I should copypasta a bit from my blog to get some better context...

Rain and mixed precipitation is a huge concern for the coastal and southern parts of the region, which is the main reason why my confidence in this forecast is low. There is a very narrow area of opportunity for higher amounts of snowfall, and while I have more confidence that there will be a narrow strip of higher totals, where that ends up being remains a mystery.

I like the orientation and amounts, you might just need to slide left or right depending on track and temps.

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LWX Discussion post-12z:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTERAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOWTHAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. NOT TOO SURPRISED TOSEE THIS SLOWER TREND AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN SOME OF THE PAST BIGGERSTORMS SO FAR THIS WINTER WHILE THE MODELS TRIED TO HANDLE THECOMPLEX NATURE OF SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEPERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM THE LOW IS NOW DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUE NGTWITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY WED. PRECIP EVEN MAY LINGERUNTIL WED EVE. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THE STORM TRACKSWEST OF THE AREA...AND LESS LIKELY THAT IT TRACKS OUT TO SEA ANDMISSES THE REGION ENTIRELY.ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRYPRECIP TO THE AREA IS INCREASING...THE EXACT PTYPE...RAIN AND/ORSNOW...STILL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT ISSUE YET TO BE DETERMINED.ALTHOUGH CLIMO SAYS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST/NRNROCKIES...AND THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM CAPEHATTERAS TO 50-150 MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WOULD FAVOR AN I-95SNOWSTORM...THERMAL PROFILES SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ARA/SN MIX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SN BUT LESS PRECIPFARTHER WEST. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIPRES THAT IS CURRENTLY SUPPLYINGTHE REGION WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALREADY WILL HAVE MOVED WELLEAST OF THE AREA AND OUT INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC BY THE START OF THEEVENT. WITHOUT THIS HIGH TO THE WEST OR NORTH...THE MID-ATLANTICREGION WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITHDURING THE EVENT /ASIDE FROM DYNAMICAL COOLING AND NE FLOW AROUNDTHE DEVELOPING LOW/. ALSO...SINCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULDFALL DURING THE DAY WED...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FCSTD TOBE ABOVE FREEZING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MELTING OF SNOW TO SOMEDEGREE.

Looks like they are favoring a track close enough to give us precip but are unsure of the type (rightly so).

I like their discussion - very logical.

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I like the orientation and amounts, you might just need to slide left or right depending on track and temps.

The 12Z GFS doesn't bring the good precipitation north of a line from Charles County to Dover Delaware.

The 18Z NAM is even a smidge SE of the 12Z GFS. However, the SREF gives 0.5" from hour 63 to hour 87.

IF the SREF is taking the lead, the Ellinwood map could verify, at least DC north.

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The 12Z GFS doesn't bring the good precipitation north of a line from Charles County to Dover Delaware.

The 18Z NAM is even a smidge SE of the 12Z GFS. However, the SREF gives 0.5" from hour 63 to hour 87.

IF the SREF is taking the lead, the Ellinwood map could verify, at least DC north.

The 18Z NAM is well SE of the 12Z GFS.

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