tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 heres the ggem 6 hr..takes a ches bay to nyc then just west of bos track http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 heres the ggem 6 hr..takes a ches bay to nyc then just west of bos track http://www.meteo.psu...zA/cmcloop.html also picking up the storm potential at 6+ out that the GFS is trying to advertise if nothing else, at least we can't complain about lack of activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 heres the ggem 6 hr..takes a ches bay to nyc then just west of bos track It's actually well south of NYC. You can tell when you look at the pressure contours that it's tucked in S of LI. That's why the 850 temps remain plenty cold. All of this is useless bickering, though..it won't make a difference when it changes in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 heres the ggem 6 hr..takes a ches bay to nyc then just west of bos track http://www.meteo.psu...zA/cmcloop.html Aargh. Quick thump snow to rain here. But a great track for interior PA and NY, which have largely been shafted so far this winter. Euro upcoming, let's hope it still shows a sheared out and weaker/less phased storm. If it's significantly more amped, it's a very bad sign for the coast, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 With the thermal gradient on this storm, all you might need to be is west of the low, even if it is only about 5-10 miles or so, to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The euro has started, lets see where it takes the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's actually well south of NYC. You can tell when you look at the pressure contours that it's tucked in S of LI. That's why the 850 temps remain plenty cold. All of this is useless bickering, though..it won't make a difference when it changes in 6 hours. Well to be fair, despite the 84hr and 90hr frames showing below 0 850s in NYC, there is probably a time in between that 6 hr period where they go above or at least experience a warm layer somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Better look at the GGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Heavy snow to a brief period of rain for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Oops...that was my bad. I was looking at old images as I was on my laptop which doesn't auto-clear the cache. The low does go pretty much directly over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 With the thermal gradient on this storm, all you might need to be is west of the low, even if it is only about 5-10 miles or so, to stay all snow. Yep. The storm's riding on the arctic boundary, so there's bound to be a huge gradient. I'm sure ultimately the low bombs as a result of it too because of the major baroclinicity from such a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yep. The storm's riding on the arctic boundary, so there's bound to be a huge gradient. I'm sure ultimately the low bombs as a result of it too because of the major baroclinicity from such a setup. The thing is, you're going to go back to heavy snow after the low passes you even if it does track over NYC, so it's probably a win-win situation. A stronger low pressure will track further north and cause more changeover issues, but may also have a better deformation band as the coastal bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Major analog in my opinion, Feb 3-5 1995. Especially given the current look of the models, with the ggem almost being a carbon copy of that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us0204.php NESIS 1 http://www1.ncdc.noa...950204-1.43.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through hr 42 the euro is slightly less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through 48 hrs same theme, also its not holding the energy back like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Major analog in my opinion, Feb 3-5 1995. Especially given the current look of the models, with the ggem almost being a carbon copy of that storm http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us0204.php NESIS 1 http://www1.ncdc.noa...950204-1.43.jpg Wouldn't mind that one in the least bit. Even though we changed over to rain, we dumped 6-10" in the NYC area before it happened. Also, the rain lasted for maybe an hour at most before we dryslotted. I was only 9 at the time, but distinctly remember being up for most of the storm. Some freakishly heavy snow during the early morning before ending as a brief period of much lighter rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through hr 60, same theme, not holding the energy back and about the same amplification as the 12z or maybe slightly less amplfied...hr 60 has lgt to mod precip from tx to indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Euro looks much better aloft through 66 hours..but doesn't look like it's phasing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 through hr 72 its a little more amplified now than 12z...850 running across southern va...lgt to mod precip from wpa to eastern tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GGEM 90 hours Where did you get those images of the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The thing is, you're going to go back to heavy snow after the low passes you even if it does track over NYC, so it's probably a win-win situation. A stronger low pressure will track further north and cause more changeover issues, but may also have a better deformation band as the coastal bombs out. The 0z Canadian forms a mid-level cutoff late and further north than its two previous runs. So it's mostly a front side storm and less impressive overall. I'm not sure there would be significant snow following any change back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Aargh. Quick thump snow to rain here. But a great track for interior PA and NY, which have largely been shafted so far this winter. Euro upcoming, let's hope it still shows a sheared out and weaker/less phased storm. If it's significantly more amped, it's a very bad sign for the coast, IMO. Speak for yourself.. I could use something to track after this icy mess today(Tuesday). It does look like 0z NAM is an outlier though and the GGEM is a good compromise between the GFS and NAM. Still awaiting the euro tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 78 has a sub 1008 low bout over dc....850 line north of ric, but south of fredricksburg. frz line just south of m/d line...lgt precip for all of pa...with some mod precip in wpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Major analog in my opinion, Feb 3-5 1995. Especially given the current look of the models, with the ggem almost being a carbon copy of that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us0204.php NESIS 1 http://www1.ncdc.noa...950204-1.43.jpg Nice analog--has a very similar look to the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 84 has a sub 1004 low about 100-125 miles east of toms river....lgt precip every where.. .1-.25 precip ttn to orh... its the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Where did you get those images of the ggem? Go to this. Scroll down to "Vizaweb: web access to CMC products". It takes a day to learn, but is a treasure trove of GGEM and RGEM products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 hr 84 has a sub 1004 low about 100-125 miles east of toms river....lgt precip every where.. .1-.25 precip ttn to orh... its the same as 12z so it just doesnt amplify enough ehh? Not the worst solution at this juncture as too amplified means rain for many locales. Something in between like the gfs I guess would be ideal with a nice 3-6/4-8" type event followed by a cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 so it just doesnt amplify enough ehh? Not the worst solution at this juncture as too amplified means rain for many locales. Something in between like the gfs I guess would be ideal with a nice 3-6/4-8" type event followed by a cold snap. yea its nowhere near amplified as the nam or ggem. its prob like an inch from phl to dc and 1-2 for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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