A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWlittleIW 18z NAM probably won't change much. edit: energy a little east in rockies and heights don't look like this run will shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking through things right now and it looks like just another East Coast blizzard to me (maybe not for the I-95 crowd though) . I see what Baro is saying but I would lower my probability to 10-20 percent for a possible farther west phase/negative tilt. Otherwise...a potential advisory or low end warning event near the I-70 corridor and Ohio River. Still plenty of details to work out here with this event being many periods away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 slight changes by 42 on 18z compared to 6z 6z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looking through things right now and it looks like just another East Coast blizzard to me (maybe not for the I-95 crowd though) . I see what Baro is saying but I would lower my probability to 10-20 percent for a possible farther west phase/negative tilt. Otherwise...a potential advisory or low end warning event near the I-70 corridor and Ohio River. Still plenty of details to work out here with this event being many periods away. When I was talking about a phase--I wasn't talking farther NW. In fact, I never said that--but instead a phase and a wrapped negative tilt storm akin to the CMC. OV would be the winners in that. I think southern Indiana into KY will get in on the fun in some way or another regardless of how this develops. My probability was for a full phase and a developing bomb heading E. Chicago and others will likely not fare nearly as well with a amplified bomb--and I think there is a good chance of that--40% or more. NAM looks to continue its trend through 48 and may even phase better here based on the placement of the western trough. Winners and losers in these events--no other way around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When I was talking about a phase--I wasn't talking farther NW. In fact, I never said that--but instead a phase and a wrapped negative tilt storm akin to the CMC. OV would be the winners in that. I think southern Indiana into KY will get in regardless on the fun. My probability was for a full phase and a developing bomb heading E. Chicago and others will likely not fare nearly as well with a amplified bomb--and I think there is a good chance of that--40% or more. NAM looks to continue its trend through 48 and may even phase better here. Winners and losers in these events--no other way around it. Ah ok, that makes much more sense. I misunderstood your posts from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hard to tell what this NAM run will do since it has a slight E component to the northern stream diving S and less influence of the East Pac. ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hard to tell what this NAM run will do since it has a slight E component to the northern stream diving S and less influence of the East Pac. ridge. looks like it should still be a big hit for areas that looked good at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hard to tell what this NAM run will do since it has a slight E component to the northern stream diving S and less influence of the East Pac. ridge. My initial thought was perhaps a jog southeast but minor and I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 East and south she goes on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like it should still be a big hit for areas that looked good at 12z. My initial thought was perhaps a jog southeast but minor and I'm not sure. Talking purely from a developing bomb perspective, northern stream needs to dive farther S for a CMC, but this is still good. OV still cashes in as do a lot of other areas. This is going to be a fun one to watch develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I see Beau lurking too--he would cash in nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Talking purely from a developing bomb perspective, northern stream needs to dive farther S for a CMC, but this is still good. OV still cashes in as do a lot of other areas. This is going to be a fun one to watch develop. Dumb question alert-what is this and what does it stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 KY to OH getting it good on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wish this could just be set in stone! Love this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Dumb question alert-what is this and what does it stand for? Canadian Meteorological Center--old school for Global GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Talking purely from a developing bomb perspective, northern stream needs to dive farther S for a CMC, but this is still good. OV still cashes in as do a lot of other areas. This is going to be a fun one to watch develop. yup i agree...definitely would like to see that drop in further south. What has the seasonal trend been on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Really nice run for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 big eastern OV hit....especially along the river valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 about .35 to ,4 qpf here, I can take it..but lets see if we can up the ante on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z nam is unrealistic. It tries and keeps the stj up with the northern stream(previous runs were doing the same thing) but I don't see it in that manner. It is all about the northern stream right now, either it digs enough for a storm or it gets squashed. What do you mean it is unrealistic?? What is so unrealistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 big eastern OV hit....especially along the river valley This would be a great hit from Columbus to Pittsburgh. Still could be many changes but looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What do you mean it is unrealistic?? What is so unrealistic? considering it's angrysummons, I'm imagining it's unrealistic to him because it gives ohio a snowstorm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 LOL. Considering the weakness in the northern stream, it would not allow the stj to be a "factor". You can still get snow from the northern impulse itself. just mess'n with ya....it's just that your pessimistic reputation precedes you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 well, I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ILN AFD....sounds about right FORECAST WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER S/WV ENERGY ORIGINATING OUT OF THE PAC NW WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING UPR LVL TROF MOVING FROM S CNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TN VLY ON THURSDAY...PUSHING NE TOWARD THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ...THERE STILL WOULD BE ENOUGH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A DECENT SNOWFALL. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NW...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 well, I like it. Nice. Probably can extend that 10% threat area east into BMG, IND, CVG, DAY, and CMH. Not that everyone will get 8"...probably not anyone really, but that has to be the zone where it could happen. Still a general 3-6" looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ILN AFD....sounds about right FORECAST WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER S/WV ENERGY ORIGINATING OUT OF THE PAC NW WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING UPR LVL TROF MOVING FROM S CNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TN VLY ON THURSDAY...PUSHING NE TOWARD THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ...THERE STILL WOULD BE ENOUGH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A DECENT SNOWFALL. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NW...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. Wow impressive, stating it is coming from ILN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow impressive, stating it is coming from ILN Was thinking the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS nearly identical through 48--could argue the northern stream is going to be a tad more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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