2001kx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 -- A few pics -- This is total snow on the ground Top of table is from the recent storm bottom is total from both storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 2001kx Nice pictures! Looks like you live in the thickens. What's your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 2001kx Nice pictures! Looks like you live in the thickens. What's your elevation? yeah we live in the middle of the woods on a dirt road...but we are only 3 miles from town. i love it here...would love it more if i was sitting above 2000' we are at 1212' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My dad reports a total of 5" at home in Lebanon County. Amazingly, that's our largest January snowfall since 1/22/2005, when 6" fell....yikes. Our last January snowfall of greater than 6" was 1/6-7/2002, when 8" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My dad reports a total of 5" at home in Lebanon County. Amazingly, that's our largest January snowfall since 1/22/2005, when 6" fell....yikes. Our last January snowfall of greater than 6" was 1/6-7/2002, when 8" fell. He didn't get more than 5" in either back to back blizzards last Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 He didn't get more than 5" in either back to back blizzards last Feb? Well yeah, 16.5" and 17" for those, but they were in February. I'm strictly talking January snowfalls here, which have become scarce in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yeah we live in the middle of the woods on a dirt road...but we are only 3 miles from town. i love it here...would love it more if i was sitting above 2000' we are at 1212' How do you compare to last year at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 How do you compare to last year at this time? i didnt keep a written record. i always just used the info in my sig. but since EUSWX forum went down i lost all my info i had on there...grrrrr. but if my memory is right we are ahead of last year at this time. i dont think winter(snow) really started for us until the end of jan into feb. but like i said i could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 How do you compare to last year at this time? what do you think of the threat next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 what do you think of the threat next week? It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 CTP's grid for next Tuesday makes me laugh. Tuesday Cloudy with a chance of rain...freezing rain...snow and sleet. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. They might as well put up an image of a guy shrugging his shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 First off, I compiled a map from the PNS statements to get a general idea how my forecast map did. All in all not too bad, a tad light in places.. but everyone got some decent snows, just not the insanity that happened further northeast. Forecasted: Actual: It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune! Yea i'm surprised that Euro currently is being the one that is more supressed of the two models. The 12z GGEM was also similar to the Euro for the storm and the GFS has been all sorts of a mess trying to make a storm. Yesterdays afternoon euro run had what appeared to be a high thickness (in between 540-546) snow event for most of CPA and not very much mixing with the 850 and 925 0's being all the way down to VA under the western 2/3rds of the state. Without the -NAO and as u mentioned, the mean trough comin back a bit, this should def be a miller-B eventually I think, and probably more of a true one than this storm now (no front running gulf wave). Precip types should be fun to determine, hopefully it stays mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Guys, where is the nest place to get snowfall totals? Like the obs reports you see posted in the Sphilly thread from Mt Hilly that lists cities by counties. I couldn't find anything like that on CTPs site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune! Yea i'm surprised that Euro currently is being the one that is more supressed of the two models. The 12z GGEM was also similar to the Euro for the storm and the GFS has been all sorts of a mess trying to make a storm. Yesterdays afternoon euro run had what appeared to be a high thickness (in between 540-546) snow event for most of CPA and not very much mixing with the 850 and 925 0's being all the way down to VA under the western 2/3rds of the state. Without the -NAO and as u mentioned, the mean trough comin back a bit, this should def be a miller-B eventually I think, and probably more of a true one than this storm now (no front running gulf wave). Precip types should be fun to determine, hopefully it stays mostly frozen. thanks for the info....6 days and counting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS now has a legit GLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS now has a legit GLC. yeah i just checked it out...lots of precip in pa as well. good thing we have almost a week to let things change a bit...for the better i hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 canadian is much better , has a low off the coast. no lake cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Guys, where is the nest place to get snowfall totals? Like the obs reports you see posted in the Sphilly thread from Mt Hilly that lists cities by counties. I couldn't find anything like that on CTPs site. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=PHLPNSCTP this is usually updated often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well yeah, 16.5" and 17" for those, but they were in February. I'm strictly talking January snowfalls here, which have become scarce in recent years. Doh. That's what I get for skimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It's legitimate. With the mean trough backing up a bit, we should see the next storm further west than this past one. GFS looks a little out or sorts with its upper features early next week... while the Euro looks a bit flat. A compromise would have a primary low to our west, transferring in a classic miller b fashion. My guess right now would be snow-to-ice, then back to snow. Certainly lots of time to fine tune! Maybe i will just let the spreader and plow attached to the trucks here at work for now then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 2001kx Nice pictures! Looks like you live in the thickens. What's your elevation? his pics are always cool. I feel like I know that backhoe near his house personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS now has a legit GLC. http://www.erh.noaa....oduct=PHLPNSCTP this is usually updated often The latest GFS seems to have more frozen for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The latest GFS seems to have more frozen for that storm. It's def trending southward. Here's an interesting note from NOAA that could change the models a bit over the next few days: North American Winter Storm Forecasts to Get Boost from High-Tech NOAA Plane NOAA has dispatched one of its highly specialized research aircraft to collect atmospheric data over the North Pacific Ocean to enhance forecasts of winter storms for the entire North American continent. NOAA’s high-altitude, twin-engine Gulfstream IV-SP jet will be stationed at Yokota Air Force Base in Japan through February before repositioning to Honolulu in March. From these locations, the aircraft will be tasked by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service — to collect information such as wind speed and direction, pressure, temperature and humidity. The data will be sent via satellite to global operational weather forecasting centers and fed into sophisticated computer forecast models. “Data collected from these flights will help provide a more refined snapshot of the atmosphere, which in turn improves forecasts,” said Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, in Camp Springs, Md. The reconnaissance missions have had a positive impact on global numerical weather prediction models which means better storm intensity and track forecasts, plus improved wind and precipitation forecasts. Atmospheric data from the western Pacific, where most of North America’s weather originates, is scarce so NOAA incorporated the Japan-based missions into its annual Winter Storms Reconnaissance program in early 2009. Prior missions were flown from Alaska, Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast. “By expanding our reach to Japan, we are able to gather data upstream of winter storms, thereby gaining more lead time for emergency managers and responders to prepare for the impacts of severe winter weather on lives and property,” said meteorologist and flight director Jack Parrish with the NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations. The Gulfstream IV is based at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla. The plane is part of the NOAA fleet of research aircraft and ships operated, managed and maintained by the NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The GFS does cool things down, but it still paints a nasty ice storm for parts of Central PA and especially NE PA it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 his pics are always cool. I feel like I know that backhoe near his house personally the crane is gone...she had someone come in and cut it up for scrap just a few months ago.RIP -lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Looking at the GFS/ECMWF I have that feeling we may trend all the way to a low over Detroit. What are your thoughts JST? PSU8315? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the crane is gone...she had someone come in and cut it up for scrap just a few months ago.RIP -lol. That was a crane? Hell i thought that was your mail box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm ready for a nice rain event next week. Perhaps we can reshuffle the deck and start over thereafter? It looks like there might be other opportunities for fun down the road, we may actually want this to turn wet so we have a more realistic chance of white later? Just wondering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That was a crane? Hell i thought that was your mail box i do have a big mailbox but not quite that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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