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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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The GFS is pretty close, but still didn't pick up on the northern stream being as robust as it looks currently. Makes me wonder if we may see some forecast changes over the next 12 to 18 hours. There has been some mentions of what happens if the northern piece is stronger as it swings over TN, and that models haven't been handling that piece of energy well. Could up the accumulations across Northern MS, AL, GA, and Most of TN, but by robbing moisture from further south.

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Folks in parts to the south east of here are going to see some of the z devil, and if the amounts trend higher closer to the storm it will be a hammering. Temps cold enough to get those folks down there iced up should protect folks north from the bad hit, I hope. I would wish 1 inch or higher of frozen rain on no one. There is nothing fun about it. Lets hope we all get sleet instead. I'm certainly working on it here, lol. T

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Worried about temps here, if the precip begins too late we could be looking at nothing but a soaking rain. Inland areas will probably do better than areas at the coast though

It's going to depend on where that initial streak of moisture pops out. right now, I think inland coastal counties have a short of up to 1"-2" overnight Sunday night IF the bands out in front streak across. Such large dewpoint depressions have to be overcome which will thusly completely cool the column top-down and result at least in a period of snow/IP or all snow initially. the issue here is this and I'm feeling rather confident that heavier precip rates will induce more snow and sleet and lighter amounts will see more ZR/IP. The coastal communities will probably have some marinal influence later in the morning or early afternoon and probably climb above FRZ. Further inland you go, the more chances for snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. A precip type nightmare governed for about a 12 hour window or so by precipitation rates.

I would expect at least a WWA to be hoisted sometime tomorrow morning or afternoon for KCHS CWA, doubtful as of yet if WSW criteria will be reached.

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It's going to depend on where that initial streak of moisture pops out. right now, I think inland coastal counties have a short of up to 1"-2" overnight Sunday night IF the bands out in front streak across. Such large dewpoint depressions have to be overcome which will thusly completely cool the column top-down and result at least in a period of snow/IP or all snow initially. the issue here is this and I'm feeling rather confident that heavier precip rates will induce more snow and sleet and lighter amounts will see more ZR/IP. The coastal communities will probably have some marinal influence later in the morning or early afternoon and probably climb above FRZ. Further inland you go, the more chances for snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. A precip type nightmare governed for about a 12 hour window or so by precipitation rates.

I would expect at least a WWA to be hoisted sometime tomorrow morning or afternoon for KCHS CWA, doubtful as of yet if WSW criteria will be reached.

THANK YOU. These were my thoughts exactly. Because..I am thinking...wow..1.00 liquid for Columbia?? About half of that is snow. So you got to think/believe that the bulk of this will be moderate to heavy. So hopefully that will help keep it more snow and sleet....and keep the freezing rain away longer. Evaporation Cooling. But then again there are some things I don't understand... like is there normally a limit or duration Evap cooling can take place or last?

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Folks in parts to the south east of here are going to see some of the z devil, and if the amounts trend higher closer to the storm it will be a hammering. Temps cold enough to get those folks down there iced up should protect folks north from the bad hit, I hope. I would wish 1 inch or higher of frozen rain on no one. There is nothing fun about it. Lets hope we all get sleet instead. I'm certainly working on it here, lol. T

Tony, looks like MCN will be a 1/4 - 1/2 ZR. The IMBY forecast I wish someone could give me is how much will it cost to remove pine trees from my roof !:(

Shack

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THANK YOU. These were my thoughts exactly. Because..I am thinking...wow..1.00 liquid for Columbia?? About half of that is snow. So you got to think/believe that the bulk of this will be moderate to heavy. So hopefully that will help keep it more snow and sleet....and keep the freezing rain away longer. Evaporation Cooling. But then again there are some things I don't understand... like is there normally a limit or duration Evap cooling can take place or last?

I'm glad you want to learn. Google dew point and wet bulb, and then when Lookout is in a good mood ask him. He is the dude to see on the subject. Tony

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I'm glad you want to learn. Google dew point and wet bulb, and then when Lookout is in a good mood ask him. He is the dude to see on the subject. Tony

Thank you Tony. Sorry if it was wrong to post this here. It's just annoying when you don't know what could fall as sleet or freezing rain. Then again I guess no one would really know that "until it happens". Models can be wrong, too.

Thanks again.

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THANK YOU. These were my thoughts exactly. Because..I am thinking...wow..1.00 liquid for Columbia?? About half of that is snow. So you got to think/believe that the bulk of this will be moderate to heavy. So hopefully that will help keep it more snow and sleet....and keep the freezing rain away longer. Evaporation Cooling. But then again there are some things I don't understand... like is there normally a limit or duration Evap cooling can take place or last?

if the parent high can continually channel down cold dry air, then evaporational cooling can continue throughout but it is the above layer that is the problem. Now diabatic processes aloft and even convective elements can serve to combat such warming aloft but if the pull of warm air advection is strong enough, eventually the WAA will win out.

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Defiantly either a quicker or wetter trend on radar tonight even compaired to the 00z Nam

Nam Precip For 1am tonight.

jkawxw.png

Current Radar:

2lc9vlk.gif

Basically there are 45-50 DBZ echoes just to the west of Dallas, TX where the nam was forecasting these echoes to be in San Angelo, TX. Only a differences of a couple hundred miles.

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WCNC in Charlotte saying 3-5" in Charlotte proper with 6-8" from Gaffney to the GA/SC state line along 85.

Let me guess...Brad was there, right? Normally I expect him of all people to put down those kind of accumulations. A bit more than what I'm going with for my thoughts as of now (a general 4-6 with possibly 8 in a few spots).

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Let me guess...Brad was there, right? Normally I expect him of all people to put down those kind of accumulations. A bit more than what I'm going with for my thoughts as of now (a general 4-6 with possibly 8 in a few spots).

Actually it was some random blonde chick I didnt recognize. She seemed to be just using one of his fxcasts though.

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Calling it a night. I'll say all the models aren't giving the southern stream the credit it deserves tonight, based on the satellite, radar and trends.

Yeah, no doubt. But, Question is, why is this the case? Of course, we all know the GFS and it's bias of underdoing any STJ influence, but, what about the other models?.

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Which lends potential for the diabatic processes combating the warm nosing aloft.

Good point storm. I'm hoping we will see some snow at the onset here downtown, hopefully we can have things fall in our favor and we can pick up a quick dusting or more, itll be too close to call and it seems like it will come down to a nowcast situation. What time do you think the precip will start in our area? IF the RUC and SREF begin to trend toward an earlier start then I will feel more confident for a larger event, it will be a matter of who gets under the heavy returns as to what you end up getting.

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The gfs ensembles are insisting on a much bigger event:

imho that still dosent match the radar trends in texas as far as qpf goes at least right now that main slug of moisture seems to be about 75 to 100 miles farther nw in texas currently so that bodes well farther upstream it would seem. the ruc crushes arkansas btw

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Let me guess...Brad was there, right? Normally I expect him of all people to put down those kind of accumulations. A bit more than what I'm going with for my thoughts as of now (a general 4-6 with possibly 8 in a few spots).

via Brad on FB around 11:30PM...

"

167834_172150692826429_119243191450513_352803_6312775_n.jpg

Latest snow/sleet accumulations from our Futurecast model. My forecast of 3-5" looking good for the Charlotte area with closer to 6-8" in the mountains and western foothills. The .10" of ice on top of that will be the real kicker early Tuesday -Brad

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