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First guess thru final call D.C. area


Ian

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Sounds about right. I think the OTS scenario is becoming less valid (as is the silly GGEM bomb scenario). The GFS jumped pretty solidly west, even if the precip maps are still a little wimpy.

i should wait to the euro but im too tired.. i guess ill hope it sucks. :P

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I just watched the weather on NBC and they mentioned rain/snow mix... I'm thinking, really? I know apparently there is some hint on the NAM of an iffy track, but in this type of pattern the rain/snow mix call seems seriously out to lunch. Wintry mix is always possible around this area, but rain? Am I missing something here?

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1st call

25% OTS or near miss with <1"

60% 1-4"

15% 4"+

i've been going 2-4" deterministic and will hold as most likely in the snow solution but i am tempted to back off to 1-3".

however, models now currently support ~2-4" so im not sure how i can back off right now. if scaled... i'd say 1-3 west and 2-4 east (all dc metro area). confidence is rather low still. we need a few things to go right to get into range but i don't feel hope is lost and most things are progressing as planned or close. most of the snow should come as front end. even with mid levels not good for a big storm they should not keep us from getting snow entirely.

final call tomorrow night or early mon depending on how lucky i feel

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I just watched the weather on NBC and they mentioned rain/snow mix... I'm thinking, really? I know apparently there is some hint on the NAM of an iffy track, but in this type of pattern the rain/snow mix call seems seriously out to lunch. Wintry mix is always possible around this area, but rain? Am I missing something here?

i think precip would shut off before we warm that much if we warm that much

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1-2 inches snow sounds reasonable given the latest models and going with this season's persistence.

Someone mentioned earlier that thinking of this as an overperforming clipper makes it a lot easier to accept an inch or two on Tuesday that just manages to cover the grass.

Any snow at all is better than nothing.

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I'm tempted to wait for the Euro but unless it shows nothing I'm not sure I'd shift much at this pt. I'd almost rather go down with the ship than make a last minute shift and then end up having earlier thoughts verify.

FINAL CALL

95-100% chance of snow falling

90% chance of 1"+

10% chance of < 1" of snow

All along I've been just calling for D.C. area (basically the red on this map: http://genealogenie....-matro-area.png).. I don't pretend to know enough or even care enough to do outside my immediate few counties. I'm not a map maker either. But here I'll lay it out a little more than previous.

D.C. area = 2-4" (tapering to 1-3" southwest)

What I would do here is lay out 2-4" from about central Loudon VA east to about Anne Arundel MD then down the west side of the bay. An overlay 1-3" from about the western 1/3rd of MoCo through fairfax county down toward Charles County and to the SW.

Balt area = 3-5" (some 6"+ possible northeast of Balt and east of the bay)

2-4" area probably backs right into s/sw balt with this contour mainly from Balt and northeast.

Screwed is probably easier than more for most of us except perhaps the far northeast areas. I believe the vast majority or all of the snow in the D.C. area comes from the front end of the low. I do not anticipate much if anything from wraparound or back end though we could see a little, probably only enough to top out on the higher end of the 2-4". The chance for more from the developing low that eventually pummels the northeast is why Balt area is higher.

There is a slight chance (~10%) that the low develops quicker to the south and throws back enough moisture to get D.C. area more into the Balt area range. If that happens, 6+ becomes more likely up there.

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I'm tempted to wait for the Euro but unless it shows nothing I'm not sure I'd shift much at this pt. I'd almost rather go down with the ship than make a last minute shift and then end up having earlier thoughts verify.

FINAL CALL

95-100% chance of snow falling

90% chance of 1"+

10% chance of < 1" of snow

All along I've been just calling for D.C. area (basically the red on this map: http://genealogenie....-matro-area.png).. I don't pretend to know enough or even care enough to do outside my immediate few counties. I'm not a map maker either. But here I'll lay it out a little more than previous.

D.C. area = 2-4" (tapering to 1-3" southwest)

What I would do here is lay out 2-4" from about central Loudon VA east to about Anne Arundel MD then down the west side of the bay. An overlay 1-3" from about the western 1/3rd of MoCo through fairfax county down toward Charles County and to the SW.

Balt area = 3-5" (some 6"+ possible northeast of Balt and east of the bay)

2-4" area probably backs right into s/sw balt with this contour mainly from Balt and northeast.

Screwed is probably easier than more for most of us except perhaps the far northeast areas. I believe the vast majority or all of the snow in the D.C. area comes from the front end of the low. I do not anticipate much if anything from wraparound or back end though we could see a little, probably only enough to top out on the higher end of the 2-4". The chance for more from the developing low that eventually pummels the northeast is why Balt area is higher.

There is a slight chance (~10%) that the low develops quicker to the south and throws back enough moisture to get D.C. area more into the Balt area range. If that happens, 6+ becomes more likely up there.

:thumbsup:

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Sorry, Phin I jinxed us...living here in Bel Air and got a snow blower for xmas...was hoping last Saturday I could use it and didn't happen...am guessing the same for this one but who knows.

Super-bullish up here, but I like it. I will buy you dinner if I get six inches.

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