Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 42 on the gfs has light snow back into the area....inverted strip of preciep in south jersey like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is barely .10" for NYC and less then .10" for most of LI. This is a nowcast storm. The GFS is completely useless at this timerange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is a nowcast storm. The GFS is completely useless at this timerange. thats weenie statement 101, this was never more than 1-3 inches for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is a nowcast storm. The GFS is completely useless at this timerange. Useless, it is definitely not. But it does have a lower resolution so it should probably not be weighed as heavily as the mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is a nowcast storm. The GFS is completely useless at this timerange. Why is it useless? Because it doesnt show the amounts you were expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Why is it useless? Because it doesnt show the amounts you were expecting? No, because since the storm is on our doorstep, this is a nowcasting scenario, not a model hugging scenario. thats weenie statement 101, this was never more than 1-3 inches for our area. Really? 12Z NMM disagrees Looks like 5-8" for NYC. Unless, is that also a weenie statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 54 on the gfs preciep is over...total is prob around .20 for both events.... and .10 of qpf per event...give or take a bit either side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS is barely .10" for NYC and less then .10" for most of LI. The leading edge of the light snow is moving eastward from central PA. I'm looking for 1-3" from the initial round of precip and then will see where the heavier norlun trough bands set up and the results of an intensifying low off the coast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GFS has been picking up the pace of the dynamics with the first system. Dry air races in after a several hour snowfall. I even have noticed the NAM is picking up the pace, but has more QPF which could be due to its resolution. The soundings I have seen have a convective look so obviously the models will struggle with that even if they are higher resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i am more interested in saturday at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, because since the storm is on our doorstep, this is a nowcasting scenario, not a model hugging scenario. Really? 12Z NMM disagrees Looks like 5-8" for NYC. Unless, is that also a weenie statement? That is just a higher resolution of the NAM. Basically you are seeing a similar result that operational NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 An interesting thing to note about the 0Z GFS is that it is 6 hours slow with the precipitation. It shows precip extending into Eastern PA 6 hours from now. But the precip has already expanded into Eastern PA. Subtle differences like this, concerning Norlun Troughs can make a huge difference. That's why you should take Nowcasting, instead of model hugging. EDIT: There is also a report coming in from Berks County that it has just begun to snow there! It has started snowing here in Berks county http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24732&view=findpost&p=1204588 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Why is it useless? Because it doesnt show the amounts you were expecting? the 12z GFS on the morning of the blizzard radically cut back on the QPF.... "The GFS up to its usual precip cutting tricks in the near term of an event" -snowgoose69 12/26/10 10:55am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 54 on the gfs preciep is over...total is prob around .20 for both events.... and .10 of qpf per event...give or take a bit either side GFS has re-discovered the inverted trough. Its just depicted well to the northeast now. I still think its more a matter of where, than if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, because since the storm is on our doorstep, this is a nowcasting scenario, not a model hugging scenario. Really? Looks like 5-8" for NYC. Unless, is that also a weenie statement? That's yesterday's run of the hi-res. I hope somebody else pointed that out already I'm just catching up in this thread. Of course we're nowcasting, but the GFS isn't useless. It has been confirming the trends of all the other models in sweeping snowbands quickly northeast after a few runs yesterday kept it in place for 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's yesterday's run of the hi-res. I hope somebody else pointed that out already I'm just catching up in this thread. Of course we're nowcasting, but the GFS isn't useless. It has been confirming the trends of all the other models in sweeping snowbands quickly northeast after a few runs yesterday kept it in place for 24 hours. doesn't anyone get it? it's because of the energy coming down which spawns our snows on saturday weaker norlun on friday, better snow on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 doesn't anyone get it? it's because of the energy coming down which spawns our snows on saturday weaker norlun on friday, better snow on saturday Yes that energy coming down on the backside of the Polar Vortex is really pushing the first vort max and associated inverted trough quickly north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 An interesting thing to note about the 0Z GFS is that it is 6 hours slow with the precipitation. But the precip has already expanded into Eastern PA. Subtle differences like this, concerning Norlun Troughs can make a huge difference. That's why you should take Nowcasting, instead of model hugging. EDIT: There is also a report coming in from Berks County that it has just begun to snow there! http://forums.accuwe...dpost&p=1204588 Doesn't seem too slow to me. 06z is about 1am I believe. What often makes norlun trough events prolific is when snowbands stay in place for a long duration. That's the biggest thing that's changed since yesterday. I don't doubt that intensity could be briefly heavy, but where I've lost confidence in a significant event is the duration part. Is it model hugging on a clear night when no precip is forecast to call for no accumulation? The models are pretty useful tools. Even if it snows 1" per hour it's going to be hard to accumulate 6" in and around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 An interesting thing to note about the 0Z GFS is that it is 6 hours slow with the precipitation. It shows precip extending into Eastern PA 6 hours from now. But the precip has already expanded into Eastern PA. Subtle differences like this, concerning Norlun Troughs can make a huge difference. That's why you should take Nowcasting, instead of model hugging. EDIT: There is also a report coming in from Berks County that it has just begun to snow there! http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=24732&view=findpost&p=1204588 It's currently 0432z, not 0000z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 doesn't anyone get it? it's because of the energy coming down which spawns our snows on saturday weaker norlun on friday, better snow on saturday Yes, and the way this is headed eastern sections could do much better Sat than tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It seems like a 1-3" event tomorrow, coupled with another 1-3" event on Saturday, but not too sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Saturday definitely bears watching. Thats a potent vortmax rounding the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Doesn't seem too slow to me. 06z is about 1am I believe. What often makes norlun trough events prolific is when snowbands stay in place for a long duration. That's the biggest thing that's changed since yesterday. I don't doubt that intensity could be briefly heavy, but where I've lost confidence in a significant event is the duration part. Is it model hugging on a clear night when no precip is forecast to call for no accumulation? The models are pretty useful tools. Even if it snows 1" per hour it's going to be hard to accumulate 6" in and around NYC. I have to agree with you here man. I think what the NAM is keying in on is some very strong dynamics but the system is going to be racing to the ENE so I am becoming a bit skeptical on its higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Doesn't seem too slow to me. 06z is about 1am I believe. What often makes norlun trough events prolific is when snowbands stay in place for a long duration. That's the biggest thing that's changed since yesterday. I don't doubt that intensity could be briefly heavy, but where I've lost confidence in a significant event is the duration part. the 0z nam simulated radar drives home your point quite graphically. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/model_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Doesn't seem too slow to me. 06z is about 1am I believe. What often makes norlun trough events prolific is when snowbands stay in place for a long duration. That's the biggest thing that's changed since yesterday. I don't doubt that intensity could be briefly heavy, but where I've lost confidence in a significant event is the duration part. Is it model hugging on a clear night when no precip is forecast to call for no accumulation? The models are pretty useful tools. Even if it snows 1" per hour it's going to be hard to accumulate 6" in and around NYC. Yep. It sucked when the area of convergence at 500mb and below looked to weaken and pivot around faster, meaning that our snowband is weaker and pivots faster, and produces less snow for everybody. But the system for Saturday looks to be intensifying on most models, and could give us a round #2 then, and make up for the snow we lose tomorrow (which could still be impressive for a few hours). 2-4" generally sounds like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Doesn't seem too slow to me. 06z is about 1am I believe. What often makes norlun trough events prolific is when snowbands stay in place for a long duration. That's the biggest thing that's changed since yesterday. I don't doubt that intensity could be briefly heavy, but where I've lost confidence in a significant event is the duration part. Strongly agree. I mentioned this in my discussion for the blog earlier today. "A thin band should move southwest to northeast during the day Friday. Within this band..moderate to heavy snow could fall. It should be noted that guidance has backed off on the development of an inverted trough/norlun trough type feature. Instead..they are moving the boundary along rather swiftly---until it reaches an area just north of the NYC Metro, where it attempts to pivot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 00Z UKMET, a dry model, gives impressive accumulations to Cape Cod for the Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Saturday definitely bears watching. Thats a potent vortmax rounding the base. Yup, more so each run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 48 hours on the GGEM is really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 the 0z nam simulated radar drives home your point quite graphically. http://www.nco.ncep....0/model_l.shtml Thank you for the graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.