Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Be ironic if it trended far enough west to kill off the inverted trough but not west enough to do much of anything. Based on this, the GFS and NAM i'd put up watches for all of New England to play it safe. yeah that would totally be the ****ter wouldnt it oh, and dont forget leaving a lobe of crap vortex over the lakes remnant, enough to suppress next weeks storm its on the table. wouldnt that be something to poke your eye out with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks to me like the Norlun is there on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Be ironic if it trended far enough west to kill off the inverted trough but not west enough to do much of anything. Based on this, the GFS and NAM i'd put up watches for all of New England to play it safe. For those keeping score the GGEM cut the QPF max from 15 to 6 in one run for this period. In that case, this would have amounted to 60 pages of posts and (for some) some late nights all for flurries. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't trust the CMC unless there is a consensus, otherwise it is pretty useless. I mea take the DEC 20th storm for an example, it clearly had the storm out to sea with little if any fanfare even for Cape Cod, MA about 24 hours away from when the storm was expected to start. Useless. I am sure it is better in other situations, this is not one of them. What the CMC shows does not make or break a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Messanger, Where is Thomas the train hiding, Looks like we are heading in that direction........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah that would totally be the ****ter wouldnt it oh, and dont forget leaving a lobe of crap vortex over the lakes remnant, enough to suppress next weeks storm its on the table. wouldnt that be something to poke your eye out with. Don't forget the ULL still has to rotate through. When George Washington crossed the Potomac we had one of these swing through and it delivered up to 8" in a short period of time. I don't like the consensus in the mid range models but I'd lean towards the NAM idea anyway. It has support from the EC as Scott has said and it just makes more sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Lots of differing opinions...lol. sometimes even from the same people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In that case, this would have amounted to 60 pages of posts and (for some) some late nights all for flurries. lol 60? More like probably 500 when all is said and done across the site. Messanger, Where is Thomas the train hiding, Looks like we are heading in that direction........... No train yet, I'm not convinced the NAM idea is wrong - ie some type of solution in the middle of the NOGAPs (hits EMA pretty hard), Euro and NAM. GFS/GGEM right now I think are bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Lots of differing opinions...lol. sometimes even from the same people. Theres a few that are just talking in circles today.... seemingly lost in the all the jibberish they're spewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In that case, this would have amounted to 60 pages of posts and (for some) some late nights all for flurries. lol It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really neat squalls moving through NH right now. My friend in Lebanon says there is moderate snow right now, and Plymouth's web cam is all white. Nice little surprise. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 60? More like probably 500 when all is said and done across the site. No train yet, I'm not convinced the NAM idea is wrong - ie some type of solution in the middle of the NOGAPs (hits EMA pretty hard), Euro and NAM. GFS/GGEM right now I think are bunk. I was reffering to the thread, As far as the storm goes, I don't see where anything is off the table, Very complex and say still take another 24hrs to play out........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If anyone cares lol...12z GFS ensemble is north of the operational for the next potential. It puts the low just south of the benchmark at 156 hours (~39N/70W) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I still think next weeks low is going to hug the coast pretty good. The long wave trough is digging more into the west and the GFS is probably way too weak with that southern stream energy coming out. As to the inverted trough..yeah some lucky weenies are gonna get 3-6" advisory snows. Some very lucky weenie in a very little bulls eye may get over 6", but 80% of the people in NY and NE will get under 3" . The idea of the major storm is dead.... 60? More like probably 500 when all is said and done across the site. No train yet, I'm not convinced the NAM idea is wrong - ie some type of solution in the middle of the NOGAPs (hits EMA pretty hard), Euro and NAM. GFS/GGEM right now I think are bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why do I have a feeling that crazy uncle is going to throw a curve ball at us? Nothing is off the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 60? More like probably 500 when all is said and done across the site. No train yet, I'm not convinced the NAM idea is wrong - ie some type of solution in the middle of the NOGAPs (hits EMA pretty hard), Euro and NAM. GFS/GGEM right now I think are bunk. 12Z Nogaps hangs something back in E.MA. http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Theres a few that are just talking in circles today.... seemingly lost in the all the jibberish they're spewing I took another look at the GFS and I think you're right. With good ratios it's a solid 4-6" if all the flakes stack on their needles and you're doing the measuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I still think next weeks low is going to hug the coast pretty good. The long wave trough is digging more into the west and the GFS is probably way too weak with that southern stream energy coming out. As to the inverted trough..yeah some lucky weenies are gonna get 3-6" advisory snows. Some very lucky weenie in a very little bulls eye may get over 6", but 80% of the people in NY and NE will get under 3" . The idea of the major storm is dead.... shhhhhhhh. The COT spies might be listening. But, if I can get enough to cover the ground, I'll be happier than if I don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I took another look at the GFS and I think you're right. With good ratios it's a solid 4-6" if all the flakes stack on their needles and you're doing the measuring. Coming to the GTG in ORH this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 12Z Nogaps hangs something back in E.MA. http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml LOL..even the Gapper has the Norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, I can already tell after looking through the thread for a second that models blow; I'm dropping this threat pending the 12z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We're heading into the heart of winter with a vodka pattern and another huge threat on the horizon....as bald man thought. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Coming to the GTG in ORH this time? Skiing. Not sure I'd go to ORH unless I was being carjacked anyway. j/k (this means I'm joking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Lots of differing opinions...lol. sometimes even from the same people. What do you think.....big soloution off the table if the EURO doesn't improve in an hr, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What do you think.....big soloution off the table if the EURO doesn't improve in an hr, imo. Come back one hour! (in soup nazi voice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 What do you think.....big soloution off the table if the EURO doesn't improve in an hr, imo. Cryptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah models have flip-flopped with that. The euro ensembles were a pretty good hit with a low near the Cape. At least something is modeled. AWT....that one is coming and there will likely be snowpack for most of the winter with the pattern in wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cool, looks like only the delusional true believers are left. Time for Ullr to strike. Nice snow falling here at 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cryptic I thought I was pretty straight foreward....no bellyaching from me, but it's just not looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.