Novtorcher Disco Thread

[Great Snow 1717]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

So winter cancel? Some of you will eventually eat crow.

I believe in Ray.

You can continue to bet against the RAGING El Nino....one that has already taken out the Atlantic hurricane season...

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You can continue to bet against the RAGING El Nino....one that has already taken out the Atlantic hurricane season...

Yea im throwing in the towel before winter begins.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yea im throwing in the towel before winter begins.

That’s refreshing to hear. 

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

But given we have only 4 very strong El Ninos prior since 1950, we could be surprised.  One thing I have come to realize that just when you think you'd seen it all, a big curve ball is thrown, so do no totally dismiss the E Coast for sig snows.  Case in point when it comes to very strong El Nino, and I have mentioned this before, we always assumed the Cali gets soaked in such El Nino and the Pac NW dry, but the 2015-16 event, the exact opposite occurred!  So even though many regions often get the same sensible wx in this type of El Nino, they can be sig deviations for some.  Why not us this time? 

And locally for this type of El Nino, we can cash in from a not-so-apparent or rather MEH-looking event.  Like Dec 23. 1997!  And of course, big events like Feb 1983 of Jan 2016.

And really 2015-16, we did not do that bad in SNE.  Better than the long lamenting 40year period @CoastalWx would not stop b*tching about through Dec 2025!
https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-15-16

Oh we can absolutely run into a big storm or two, but that’s not going to save a winter in NNE.

I mean, I’m a very positive person but can’t spin a couple big storms in a sea of meh as a “not too bad” winter like 2015-16.

The biggest problem is the lack of arctic shuts off our main snow divers in NW flow, lake effect, etc.  That stuff probably accounts for at least half the mountain snow with synoptic the other half.

These maps show how the lack of cold in Canada moving SEward really stunts snowfall in this area back towards the lakes.

[CoastalWx]

We may have a coastal before mid month, but after you can see in my earlier post that we have the classic PAC screamer of a jet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We may have a coastal before mid month, but after you can see in my earlier post that we have the classic PAC screamer of a jet. 

What if it has that same jet configuration in Jan/Feb?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What if it has that same jet configuration in Jan/Feb?

Probably relaxes a bit like climo usually dictates. 

[CoastalWx]

Can sense the fear in PFs posts. He scared.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can sense the fear in PFs posts. He scared.

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Keep those lakes nice and toasty. Hopefully the stored heat in Lake Ontario gets unleashed on the Tug Hill starting in December. Warm lakes can lead to some epic conditions on the hill. 

November can be explosive too, but we need to get a big push of cold to produce. 

43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh we can absolutely run into a big storm or two, but that’s not going to save a winter in NNE.

I mean, I’m a very positive person but can’t spin a couple big storms in a sea of meh as a “not too bad” winter like 2015-16.

The biggest problem is the lack of arctic shuts off our main snow divers in NW flow, lake effect, etc.  That stuff probably accounts for at least half the mountain snow with synoptic the other half.

These maps show how the lack of cold in Canada moving SEward really stunts snowfall in this area back towards the lakes.

Expectations are in check for sure. Unlike SNE, the daily stuff seems to be the bread and butter rather than siggy events so we can't afford weeks of nothing. If our cold source is under a Chinook this winter we're cooked. Literally lol. 

I'm just not convinced yet that we fully blowtorch. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

November can be explosive too, but we need to get a big push of cold to produce. 

Expectations are in check for sure. Unlike SNE, the daily stuff seems to be the bread and butter rather than siggy events so we can't afford weeks of nothing. If our cold source is under a Chinook this winter we're cooked. Literally lol. 

I'm just not convinced yet that we fully blowtorch. 

Yeah, I’m not either but like you’ve seen, we can fall behind pretty fast and if the bread and butter snows are off, it’s very hard to make it up synoptically.

We can’t have Canada be mild and advent in moderated air masses after each low or front.

The cold is really the wildcard.  And one or two off events just don’t cut it.  If two weeks of every month is sort of moderate, it’s enough to keep every month below average snow.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, I’m not either but like you’ve seen, we can fall behind pretty fast and if the bread and butter snows are off, it’s very hard to make it up synoptically.

We can’t have Canada be mild and advent in moderated air masses after each low or front.

The cold is really the wildcard.  And one or two off events just don’t cut it.  If two weeks of every month is sort of moderate, it’s enough to keep every month below average snow.

Do you know offhand what the Mansfield super Nino climo is?

[dendrite]

Days and days above freezing up here

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you know offhand what the Mansfield super Nino climo is?

In terms of snow depth or temps?

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In terms of snow depth or temps?

Snowfall/depth

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

You wonder if it ever opens or is shut wire to wire ?Certainly a possibility management is discussing 

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Snowfall/depth

Snowfall and depth not great, though 1997-98 was ok at the summit.  Numerous events were just cold enough for elevation snows.  It was not good down low.

15-16, disaster, 82-83 disaster.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Pick out your favorite hilltop on this map  .. any state 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowfall and depth not great, though 1997-98 was ok at the summit.  Numerous events were just cold enough for elevation snows.  It was not good down low.

15-16, disaster, 82-83 disaster.

 

I know we joke, but in all seriousness hopefully it’s not too bad up there.

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know we joke, but in all seriousness hopefully it’s not too bad up there.

It’s a warmer version of 15-16, absolute disaster

[VivaManchVegas]

3 hours ago, BrianW said:

Blooms into December? I have all kinds of stuff still flowering here including a bunch of hydrangeas. 

 

Mine looks sad. It went south last weekend. 

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know we joke, but in all seriousness hopefully it’s not too bad up there.

Can’t control it, if it’s bad hopefully it’s dry and mild. 

[dendrite]

49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowfall and depth not great, though 1997-98 was ok at the summit.  Numerous events were just cold enough for elevation snows.  It was not good down low.

15-16, disaster, 82-83 disaster.

 

How was 23-24, 72-73, and 57-58?

[WxWatcher007]

Ugly, ugly stuff, @powderfreak.

We did better than most but my God. 

 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How was 23-24, 72-73, and 57-58?

Not the stake, but 23-24 was modestly better. Well, not really.  

Also, not sure what they were doing with the ranges on this graphic.

 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How was 23-24, 72-73, and 57-58?

72-73 was decent it looks like… rest leaves something to be desired again.