Tropical Depression Nine

[NorthHillsWx]

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf 

[WxWatcher007]

Now that we do have a well defined center and recon data that will be incorporated into the models, we should hopefully start to see gradual consensus on the eventual track and intensity. I'm still a touch skeptical, but far less so than yesterday given how much more compact this tends to be. These BoC systems can really produce.

Just goes to show how even in an otherwise historically inactive season things can change quickly. 

[Windspeed]

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf 

Having a closed surface circulation and its approximate location should give the TC models a better handle on environmental interaction. We'll have to see if there is RI potential prior to conditions becoming less favorable. I suppose there does exist the possibility of rapid intensification occurring, leading to some panic, only for the TC to rapidly weaken prior to landfall. It is an annoying forecast in that regard and subject to big changes quickly. It's tough to approximate exactly when strong mid-level shear will impede or disrupt a core, especially if the system intensifies faster than forecast. But no TC is going to be immune to 30+ kts of shear prior to landfall. Yet, before that shear escalates, the system will have very strong ventilation. Therefore, the ceiling is high through the first 72 hours. How close does the core get to the coast prior to shear obliterating it? Not like this would be the first time we've been psyched out by a hurricane in the GOM, of course.

[cardinalland]

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

[Windspeed]

It’s supposed to pass right over the loop current. And the tail end of a trough is often quite favorable. There’s a lot of moving pieces but a hurricane landfall looks plausible at the moment.

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity.