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October 2026


MJO812
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14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Same. i think they are being generous though

Same for here, though I already got to 32 degrees 2x, but this time has a chance to dip below 32.  But other parts of the county didn't get to 32 yet.

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Looks like mid 30s here tonight, so I think we'll be ok. The vegetable garden will likely continue for quite awhile. 

As others have pointed out, the fall foliage season this year has been strange with some trees early and some late. Overall not as nice as last year too. I was up at Swartwood State Park in Sussex County yesterday, and trees that were a brilliant red/orange at the same time last year didn't have that color yesterday. The color was very muted. Still some nice trees here and there, but nothing like last year. Kind of a surprise too because it was supposed to be a spectacular foliage season due to the fact that we got plenty of rain in summer. Strange that last season was better after the summer drought. 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s actually looking possible that we could pull off a rare two consecutive 2026 weekends with no measurable rainfall. 

IMG_8115.thumb.png.bed4aea1acd5033b0765461659e0e445.png

IMG_8116.thumb.png.dcd88506a8dda646b8f0ee4f48e9ed73.png

 

 

 

Ensembles hinting at wetter pattern 1st week of November. Maybe first signs of the wetter super Nino pattern? 

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Temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Monday could be the warmest day with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Dry conditions are likely through at least the middle of next week. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -13.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Many locations outside of New York City will be in the 30s tomorrow morning. New York City will likely be in the lower 40s. The NBM has been remarkably stable.

image.thumb.png.581666869d69aafb1a9f7e8db843281d.png

10/23/2026 23z NBM:

Allentown: 32°
Bridgeport: 38°
Danbury: 31°
Islip: 40°
New York City-Central Park: 43°
New York City-JFK Airport: 44°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°
Newark: 41°
Poughkeepsie: 30°
Westhampton: 34°
White Plains: 37°

The AIFS (12z) shows 39° for Central Park. That's probably a bit too cool.

The spread (standard devation) for tomorrow's high temperature has increased.

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11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Umm

WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.

Isnt 32 a freeze? I thought they stopped issuing warnings after the 1st freeze.  But if only a few locations in a county got to 32, they probably still issue them until the majority of the county gets to 32.

36 here at 1150

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