October 2026

[Michael05192016]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Next 5 days of back and forth looks to average near normal before the pattern warms going into November. 

 

 

Maybe an "E.T. the Extraterrestrial" movie kind of Halloween this year!!! Costume without coats!!!

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Next 5 days of back and forth looks to average near normal before the pattern warms going into November. 

 

 

I love it. San Diego weather here for mid autumn. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I love it. San Diego weather here for mid autumn. 

Pretty impressive reversal from the norm with the historic east based El Niño focusing the heaviest rains relative to the means around San Diego this month. So San Diego is getting the least San Diego-like weather during October from what is normal for them outside El Niños. The CONUS has been getting an unusually warm October pattern for such a strong El Niño. 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

For what it's worth, it appears that the AIFS has been running warmer than the traditional ECMWF when it comes to daytime temperatures. Whether this is temporary with the new 0.1° ECMWF grid or something persistent remains to be seen.

Here's an example from New York City from the 10/22 0z cycle (similar differences were also present in the 6z cycle):

For comparison, the NBM high-low values for October 22 (today) were 65°-47°.

[Stormlover74]

Pivotal weather is down just in case you wanted to track..well absolutely nothing

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pivotal weather is down just in case you wanted to track..well absolutely nothing

Euro literally has no precip for its entire run-rare to see that here

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Euro literally has no precip for its entire run-rare to see that here

We can roll with it. Growing season is mostly done. Plenty of rainy 50 degree days coming.


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[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We can roll with it. Growing season is mostly done. Plenty of rainy 50 degree days coming.


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I'm loving it.   My sons finishing up high school soccer-nice to not sit in the rain or mist

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, Michael05192016 said:

Now we get Halloweens more like the ones in the 1982 movie "E.T. the Extraterrestrial" and impatiens and roses in December for NYC. 

We are still 9 days out, but halloween is looking fairly normal temp wise

[cleetussnow]

The weather flatlined.  
 

 

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The weather flatlined.  
 

 

been an active summer and early fall-we were due.

[winterwarlock]

70/33 split for me

 

Thinking 20s either Saturday or Sunday morning

[donsutherland1]

The remainder of this week and weekend will see highs mainly in the lower 60s. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. Temperatures will continue to top out in the upper 50s and lower 50s through the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -33.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.869 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.