October 2026

[FPizz]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

2024 reached into the 80's the warmest Halloween on record and 2019 reached close to 80 BUT both 2012 and 2020 Halloweens were cancelled in many towns - 2012 because of power outages and damage from Sandy and 2020 because of Covid and 2012 and 2020 were both one of the coldest Halloweens on record with highs only in the 40's anyways - 2011 had measurable snow a couple days before Halloween

 

2020 had some snow flakes around on the 30th.  

[STORMANLI]

34°

Frozen Dew

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2024 : 83 in EWR / New Brunswick area NJ

That was during a nasty fall drought-I remember burn bans here

[greenmtnwx]

7 hours ago, qg_omega said:

drought pattern re-emerging 

You can’t be serious lol. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You can’t be serious lol. 

There's a reason why he's 5 posted...

[JerseyWx]

46 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You can’t be serious lol. 

Doesn't rain for 3 days= drought.

[psv88]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What’s your elevation? If your up on the moraine at 200’ or something it makes sense. You’re cold on CAA but do not radiate well. I was up at whiteface in the Adirondacks a couple winters ago and it was -30 in the valley but -10 at the base of the mountain 1,000’ higher.


.

Exactly 200 on top of the hill

[psv88]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

37.2 in Syosset & 35.7 in Muttontown this morning.  Any winds at your station with elevation?

No wind…yet two nights ago i was the coldest in the area and wind did stay up. 

[steve392]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

That was during a nasty fall drought-I remember burn bans here

Lots of fires with smoke for days. 

 

Gorgeous afternoon, 65, bright blue skies.  

[psv88]

64 and beautiful today

[NEG NAO]

Dry Stretch ahead

[NEG NAO]

Noaa Predictions VS. Actual Results

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Noaa Predictions VS. Actual Results

I don’t even pay attention to their winter outlooks. They just put climo Nina or Nino up and use that. They shouldn’t even waste their time if they do no other research. Like we saw the last couple winters there are plenty of other factors that can override ENSO. 

[cleetussnow]

Kinda looks like 50/50.  Eyeballing it, but I don't see skill here.  I would put money they are right this year, however given the screaming signal.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures are now moderating. Most of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. A strong storm will stay too offshore to bring rain to the region this week. Some elevated high tides are possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -30.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.902 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.