Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[mob1]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

What are the models showing for later tonight across NYC/NNJ?  I haven’t had time to look at the data .  There’s been no rain all afternoon. 

NAM is pretty far south with the precipitation so we'll see, but I'm assuming some of this will rotate through in the next 6-12 hours. 

[wthrmn654]

42 minutes ago, MANDA said:

If there is a saving grace here so far today it is that winds have been more northerly across the area than anything else.  That has kept for the most part water from piling in along the coast (especially NJ) any further than it has already.   That may change some overnight as the storm turns left overnight and winds become more onshore.

For jersey name l maybe, not long island

[steve392]

So what are some preliminary rain totaks so far?  I'm still at 1/2" of rain.  Really thought we'd be getting dumped on the way this looked last night. 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

So what are some preliminary rain totaks so far?  I'm still at 1/2" of rain.  Really thought we'd be getting dumped on the way this looked last night. 

I'm well over an inch so far

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

So what are some preliminary rain totaks so far?  I'm still at 1/2" of rain.  Really thought we'd be getting dumped on the way this looked last night. 

2.22” central suffolk 

[weathermedic]

I'm at 1.14 so far

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

What are the models showing for later tonight across NYC/NNJ?  I haven’t had time to look at the data .  There’s been no rain all afternoon. 

 

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM is pretty far south with the precipitation so we'll see, but I'm assuming some of this will rotate through in the next 6-12 hours. 

This was the 12z EURO through 00z Tuesday 

[Rmine1]

Precip hitting a brick wall in western Suffolk. 
 

wind however is starting to crank 

[Prue11]

Just now, Prue11 said:

2.22” central suffolk 

And most of that fell last night into early this morning 

[wthrmn654]

Dam my whole house was just shaking like craft in the winds all sudden

[wthrmn654]

Coastal flooding products just updated.  I got 2 more rounds of moderate flooding

[wthrmn654]

Looks like all of fire island is out of power now. That can't be good

[the_other_guy]

Nothing burger in Westchester thus far. Dry slotted and winds are tame.

Hopefully it stays thru the daylight hours

[Rmine1]

Can someone explain why the precip shield rotating from e to w is getting eaten away in W Suffolk?

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Can someone explain why the precip shield rotating from e to w is getting eaten away in W Suffolk?

Less lift. That will change as time goes on.

[MANDA]

43 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

For jersey name l maybe, not long island

Yes, the twin forks of L.I. would be the exception.  A more north wind won't do anything to help out on the east end.

[Cfa]

Winds have picked up quite a bit. Car is getting rocked around.

[Tatamy]

26 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Looks like all of fire island is out of power now. That can't be good

Not true.  There is still power in most places on FI.

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Not true.  There is still power in most places on FI.

Yeah if you check Pseg map only a small a handful without power 

[Brian5671]

18Z RGEM rains

[Rmine1]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Less lift. That will change as time goes on.

It just keeps eroding. Rain totals may vary greatly over a matter of miles. 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Ulster’s now at 17k out of ~100k customers vs Suffolk being at 10k with >6 times the # of customers! Ulster has almost half the outages in the entire state.

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Up to 14.99% in Ulster County. 

[Rmine1]

Beating a dead horse, but it appears that the entire precip field is getting eroded as it approaches w Suffolk. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Beating a dead horse, but it appears that the entire precip field is getting eroded as it approaches w Suffolk. 

once the storm makes the left turn that will change.  It's filling in here now

[WxDom]

Should you come across any storm-related damage, please report it to us!

https://www.weather.gov/okx/submitstormreport

Downed trees, power lines, etc. Time, location, and what occurred.

Stay safe!

[MANDA]

Based on latest radar mosaic you can see where best rains are setting up.  Best lift / forcing is over southeast New England. As the low starts to bend back west the heavier rains should start to cover L.I. and at least southern CT.  Surface low has made it pretty far north. It is already abeam of Atlantic City and still gaining latitude.  Have to think this is going to take the center more towards the NY Bight rather than the CNJ coast.  If true that would mean the next round of high tides tonight and early tomorrow would be worse on L.I. rather than NJ.  Winds are going to pickup overnight area wide through so I'd plan for increasing power outages especially nearer the coast.  Heaviest rains going forward look to be from the city eastward and north into southern and southeast New England.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_PA2/loop60v.html

[JonClaw]

Far Rockaway beach erosion photos submitted to NYCEM a few hours ago

 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Beating a dead horse, but it appears that the entire precip field is getting eroded as it approaches w Suffolk. 

Heavy rains will pivot in and out as the storm meanders around. It’s not like a winter storm where there’s a huge steady overrunning precip shield. Still another 24 hours to go with this. 

[MANDA]

Just now, JonClaw said:

Far Rockaway beach erosion photos submitted to NYCEM a few hours ago

 

Chewed up pretty good!