Fall 2026 Banter Thread

[Brian D]

September 10

2002: A late-season tornado strikes Albertville just after midnight .According to a damage survey conducted by NWS personnel, it touched down on the eastern edge of Cedar Creek Golf Course, then it moved straight east and dissipated in a city park just west of the railroad tracks. It completely tore the roof off of one home. Roofs were partially off a number of other homes, many attached garages collapsed, and a couple of houses were rotated on their foundation. About 20 homes were damaged, nine of which sustained significant damage.

 

1986: 3 inch hail falls in Watonwan County.

 

1947: Downpours fall across the Iron Range. Hibbing receives 8.6 inches in three hours.

 

1931: St Cloud experiences a record high of 106 degrees, and it reaches 104 degrees in Minneapolis.

 

1910: The shortest growing season on record in Duluth ends, with frost free days from June 14 to September 10 (87 days). Normally the frost-free season is 143 days.

For Thursday, September 10, 2026
1919 - A hurricane struck the Florida Keys drowning more than 500 persons. (David Ludlum)
1960 - Hurricane Donna struck the Florida Keys, with winds gusting to 180 mph and a thirteen foot storm surge. The hurricane then moved north along the eastern coast of Florida and inundated Naples before moving out to sea. Hurricane Donna claimed fifty lives, injured 1800 others, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. The Marathon/Tavernier area was almost completely destroyed, and in the Citrus Belt, most of the avacado crop was blown from the trees. Hurricane Donna wreaked havoc from Florida to Maine, with wind gusts to 100 mph along much of the coast. Hurricane Donna produced wind gusts to 121 mph at Charleston SC on the 11th, and wind gusts to 138 mph at Blue Hill Observatory MA on the 12th. The hurricane finally died over Maine two days later, producing more than five inches of rain over the state. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1987 - A late afternoon thunderstorm roared through Austin TX producing wind gusts to 81 mph, and 2.17 inches of rain in just sixty minutes. The high winds toppled six National Guard helicopters at the Robert Mueller Municipal Airport, and damaged or destroyed numerous other aircraft. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Cool air sweeping into the north central U.S. brought snow to some of the higher elevations of Montana. The town of Kings Hill, southeast of Great Falls, was blanketed with six inches of snow. Tropical Storm Gilbert strengthened to a hurricane over the eastern Caribbean. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Light snow fell in Montana overnight, with three inches reported at Fairfield. Billings MT reported a record low of 33 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with record highs of 86 degrees at Caribou ME and 90 degrees at Burlington VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Observances:

• 10 Thu
  National School Picture Day
• 10 Thu
  National Swap Ideas Day
• 10 Thu
  International Makeup Day
• 10 Thu
  World Suicide Prevention Day
• 10 Thu
  National Anti-Junk Light Day
• 10 Thu
  National TV Dinner Day
• 10 Thu
  Swap Ideas Day
• 10 Thu
  World Top Up Day

[Stebo]

On 9/8/2026 at 6:23 PM, michsnowfreak said:

My thoughts are that its subpar from average, but not as much as some are assuming with a strong nino. 

The last 3 strong nino/super nino have been bad for us, and its been what 5 years since we hit or went above average. at some point you just have to look at things at face value, its not good, and may very well be very bad.

[forkyfork]

On 9/9/2026 at 11:48 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Not the whole winter. Maybe December. 

when will you become suicidal? mid january?

[michsnowfreak]

40 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The last 3 strong nino/super nino have been bad for us, and its been what 5 years since we hit or went above average. at some point you just have to look at things at face value, its not good, and may very well be very bad.

My thoughts on this, agree or disagree....

The range of strong/super El Nino snowfalls for Detroit is 20-45". They all have some subtle things in common (early snow, warm December, much colder Jan and/or Feb) but all have differences as well. If the juiced jet provides above avg precip, it can easily be an ok snow year. It works both ways.

Since the beginning of record, there are ebbs and flows with snowfall. The record snow of the 2010s settled down big time in the 2020s. We were due. Now, its been 5 years since we had an above avg snow season, so were due the other way. Last years total snow number was only an inch below the longterm avg (5" below the snowier current avg, thanks to the 2000s-10s). But it had way above avg snowcover and below avg temps, so much so it was rated a severe winter on AWSSI. This is now 2 winters in a row that were "cold and white" without a surplus of snow. Theres no question this winter will be warmer than the last 2, but who says thats automatically less snow? We can easily get mild, snowy winters just as we can get cold, white and dry. The strong Nino of 2015-16 had slightly below avg snow in Detroit but above avg snow in the northern suburbs and well above avg snow towards Flint, all with mild temps.

Its interesting that most models have eastern MI in the above avg precip as well, on the western shield of the east coast wetness and with a juiced jet. If that comes to fruition, kiss the "dry" el nino goodbye. Of course, it could also unfold in the nightmarish fashion of warm, wet December then colder/drier Jan/Feb. Its all speculation.

All that said, I have never once predicted a good winter this year. I expect a subpar winter. But not crazy so. If i had to put a guess on snowfall, id say 30-33" for DTW. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

when will you become suicidal? mid january?

Youre pathetic. Seeing as though you dont even understand how the weather works, itll be nice when you disappear mid winter when the east gets a noreaster. 

[Chinook]

New video about Plainfield's F5 tornado

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Extreme drought now covers my corner of Minneapolis. Pattern looks wet ahead hopefully. 

[Brian D]

September 11

1980: 3.35 inches of rain fall in St. Cloud.

 

1942: A line of thunderstorms races across Minnesota at 70 mph, producing severe winds that would destroy 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path.

 

1931: The daytime high in St. Cloud was 96 degrees.

 

1931: Summer still has its grip on Minnesota, with a high of 111 degrees at Beardsley.

 

1900: The soggy remains of the Galveston Hurricane bring 6.65 inches of rain to St. Paul over two days.

 

1807: Thick smoky weather is noted at Pembina.

For Friday, September 11, 2026
1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)
1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data)
1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel)
1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)
1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Observances:

• 11 Fri
  National 401(k) Day (Note: I rename it "Lose most, if not all, your retirement in a crash day" Day  )
• 11 Fri
  National Make Your Bed Day (Note: NOPE ! LOL)
• 11 Fri
  Rosh Hashanah
• 11 Fri
  National Hot Cross Bun Day
• 11 Fri
  Patriot Day
• 11 Fri
  Libraries Remember Day
• 11 Fri
  No News is Good News Day

[Brian D]

Here are the charts for each region of the US, along with the US as a whole, for Summer anoms.

[michsnowfreak]

Random find. I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. 

What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.