September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[yoda]

Looks like another real taste of fall next week... LWX has highs near 60 on Tuesday in DC metro with lows in the mid 40s... looks like lows in the upper 30s possible Monday night out towards i81 corridor and west

[WxUSAF]

Fun model confusion for Sunday. All 12z models went north except euro ai, which went back south. Op euro has 2” to the south side of 495. 

[stormy]

The WPC is tossing the physics models and buying ECM AI and GFS AI.

This will be very interesting!!

[Ji]

The EURO AI ensembles/GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles dont seem too impressed

here is the 50 percentile which actually went south from 6z

[AlexD1990]

47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Fun model confusion for Sunday. All 12z models went north except euro ai, which went back south. Op euro has 2” to the south side of 495. 

in mid winter form already

[stormy]

The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.

[Ji]

The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.

Yea get out the boats

[stormy]

The Graf predicts nearly an inch of rain over the weekend.

[CAPE]

This one probably isn't for us. It looked that way last night when I made a couple posts about it. Not much change 24 hours later.  I'm not mad about it at all, but there will probably be enough moisture to be annoying here. I'll take the clouds but give me a dry weekend.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS for weekend front and overrunning wave potential compared to 0Z.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Can. Compared to 0Z

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO compared to 0Z.

[Weather Will]

No idea what will actually happen, but today trended wetter for the weekend especially DC south.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This one probably isn't for us. It looked that way last night when I made a couple posts about it. Not much change 24 hours later.  I'm not mad about it at all, but there will probably be enough moisture to be annoying here. I'll take the clouds but give me a dry weekend.

 

Totally agree.  I'm not mad about "missing" anything either, at this time of year.  And personally, I would like it if at least Saturday can be fairly decent.  It's kind of looking as if any rain will mostly be like a Saturday night into Sunday night deal at this point, from what I've looked at?  (Depending on how that frontal wave develops, etc.)

[aldie 22]

But will there be softball in leesburg on Sunday?

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This one probably isn't for us.

I don't know, some of the runs are reeling it back in.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI compared to 0Z.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI compared to 0Z.

Poor Ji

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Poor Ji

Lesson learned for me is that the EURO flips like every other model.  Will not get my heart set on a storm track outside 48 hours anymore.

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Poor Ji

this is how much rain the AIFS has through 2:00pm Sunday. We will be eliminated long before then lol

[CAPE]

'We just cant know yet'.

Good rehearsal for winter storm tracking, even if its mostly rain. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO is wet Saturday with frontal passage.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO compared to 0Z.

[Ji]

WB 18Z EURO compared to 0Z.

Well, that happens and Saturday is canceled too ha ha

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Lesson learned for me is that the EURO flips like every other model.  Will not get my heart set on a storm track outside 48 hours anymore.

I've been saying that for years, especially since the 2017 or 2018 "upgrade." 

[Weather Will]

WB 9Z NBM: models went south overnight...

[stormy]

The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88".    As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00"

Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI.