September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Ji]

GFS ensembles went south too

[Ji]

beautiful run

[Interstate]

and we have our first true model battle... let winter begin.

 

GFS- North and wet

EURO- South and dry

[frd]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z models for Sunday.

 

WPC does not agree

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

and we have our first true model battle... let winter begin.
 
GFS- North and wet
EURO- South and dry

Gfs ensembles don’t support op though

[aldie 22]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs ensembles don’t support op though

Let me guess, outdoor church concert on Sunday or a softball game for your kids?

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Let me guess, outdoor church concert on Sunday or a softball game for your kids?

softball tournament lol

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO v. 12Z; very inconsistent.

[Weather Will]

NWS Sterling for Sunday.... like most systems we are in wait and see mode.

A wave of low pressure, infused with tropical moisture from the
remnants of multiple East Pacific systems, treks toward the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday into Saturday night. The track of the low beyond
this point will depend on (1) where exactly the stalled front is,
and (2) the strength of a transient blocking high pressure to the
north. Rain or showers become increasingly likely for much of the
region Saturday night into Sunday, with a soaking rain possible if
the wave of low pressure is a bit more organized/closer to the area.

 

[CAPE]

Pretty big differences wrt the interaction between the northern and southern h5 vorticity on the Euro compared to GFS, thus quite different outcomes at the surface. Ofc this will vary from run-to run on the ops at this range. 

[CAPE]

The Natty Blend suggests most of our area might not be the target for significant rain- with the frontal passage itself as well as low pressure that may form on the slowed/stalled front to our south. Close though and subject to change based on the suite of model inputs it uses. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Pattern change cancelled?

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Pattern change cancelled?

Sure looks that way. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sure looks that way. 

How... just how...

This weekend showed signs that we've finally turned the corner and that the niño was actually kicking in.

How is it even possible that it was yet another rug pull and a repeat of late May...

Is there ever going to be a wet pattern?

[SnowenOutThere]

New GFS run is a complete cave. Glad this isn’t a snow storm or the 12z euro into 18z gfs would’ve made this place a bloodbath.

[WVclimo]

Hiking all day Sunday at Dolly Sods.  I’ve been hoping for that south trend to end up being the correct solution.

[TSSN+]

Where’s the mositure?