Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep that’s interesting. 

I've liked the signal for a while now. Just wish it tapped a little more into tropical influence. The runs today seem to be a little more potent with perhaps some subtropical/hybrid potential, but we're obviously still a ways out. 

AI ensembles look more bullish but you can see a little signal there across guidance. 

 

 

For the weenies among us, to be clear, I'm not saying we're going to get crushed by tropical lol. Just that the general pattern seems open for one of these coastals bearing hybrid characteristics. As @vortex95 notes, that's a bit unusual for this time of year along the east coast with "hybrid" season usually being in October, but given the overarching hostility in the Atlantic basin this year it's not surprising that the east coast right now could only support some kind of sprawling mess. 

[dendrite]

51.8° -RA

What a way to run the last weekend of summer. 

[WxWatcher007]

Regardless of status, the models really do have persistently strong onshore flow for days over the region. As long as this doesn't trend 500nm east or turn into a pumpkin, someone along the coast may have some trouble. 

[CoastalWx]

Another steining to remember. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another steining to remember. 

Get it out of the way now before winter sets in?
Preemptive ?

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another steining to remember. 

I consider it a blessing.

[binbisso]

22 hours ago, BrianW said:

Thankfully I don't live anywhere near Newark. I have been out on my boat just about every day this week and the long Island sound water temps are still mid 70's.

The middle of the sound out to the race is still 75-77 degrees..

 

 

 

Bridgeport, new haven, islip and montawk, all between sixty six and seventy degrees yesterday. And in the middle of the sound over the water, it was 75 to 77 yeah okay

[CoastalWx]

Precision steining. 

[Snowedin]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Regardless of status, the models really do have persistently strong onshore flow for days over the region. As long as this doesn't trend 500nm east or turn into a pumpkin, someone along the coast may have some trouble. 

It’s crazy how these stalled out lows frequently seem to occur in the early fall and of course the early spring in New England. It’s like some overarching computer program has us dialed in for weeks of dampness and just general misery during the beginning of each equinox. At least it’s something interesting to track for the first time in a while.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Precision steining. 

Not much of a rainer anywhere with this. Models way too wet 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not much of a rainer anywhere with this. Models way too wet 

Decent sheet drizzle here today. 
Don’t really need it or want it.  

[CoastalWx]

I mowed my dust bowl of a lawn thinking we’d get at least a little rain. We’ll see what happens later, but it looks like another Steiner. I also have a lot of leaf drop now. Trees are stressed.

[ineedsnow]

12z runs kind of meh so far

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mowed my dust bowl of a lawn thinking we’d get at least a little rain. We’ll see what happens later, but it looks like another Steiner. I also have a lot of leaf drop now. Trees are stressed.

Didn’t you have almost 2” the other day ?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Didn’t you have almost 2” the other day ?

No

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z runs kind of meh so far

Stein will find a way to ruin this.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z runs kind of meh so far

Not good. Gefs is also offshore.