Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[vortex95]

Now finally storms w/ some meat!
 

[weatherwiz]

Front/trough continue advancing south 

EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping

MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG

Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed

[Damage In Tolland]

Jancock unsure 

 

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Front/trough continue advancing south 

EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping

MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG

Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed

 

[OceanStWx]

37 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What an incredible bust. Wildfire smoke for the loss.

That stuff really got entrained and concentrated ahead of the front. Surface based stuff may be a loss, but these lapse rates could produce hail all night along with a rogue wind gust.

[vortex95]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Jancock unsure 

 

Bust in ME?  The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME.  Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall.

The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.  

[Typhoon Tip]

SPC is clearly hedging off though

Words like “unclear“ or pretty good indicators that things aren’t really looking the way they were yesterday and how could they be…

Might be about time for them to admit they were just as smoke boned as everybody else’s forecast. 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Bust in ME?  The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME.  Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall.

The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.  

Seems like a ..

 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Bust in ME?  The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME.  Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall.

The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.  

Didn’t all the CAMs show more activity in Maine than has happened?

It’s ok if it “busts”, no one saw the smoke coming.  This has been a pretty hyped day, to the point that people who don’t follow weather have been talking about it up here.  We were supposed to be like 90F today and instead low-80s.  That has to matter. 

Our time in VT has always been like 9p-1a though… but like Tyler in the post, I thought Maine would’ve been lit up already.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Didn’t all the CAMs show more activity in Maine than has happened?

It’s ok if it “busts”, no one saw the smoke coming.  This has been a pretty hyped day, to the point that people who don’t follow weather have been talking about it up here.

Our time in VT has always been like 9p-1a though… but like Tyler in the post, I thought Maine would’ve been lit up already.

 

Is Jancock the main TV met up there? When I was as up there traveling they seemed to be the main tv met up. Started they career with Hammer in HFD

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is Jancock the main TV met up there? When I was as up there traveling they seemed to be the main tv met up. Started they career with Hammer in HFD

Yeah he’s the dude up here for on camera Mets.

[Torch Tiger]

What a bust so far; bust bust bust

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

If stuff were to get nasty, will need stuff to really fire in Canada from 6-8p. Maybe keep an eye on that stuff near Mont-Laurier.

Firing now. Was modeled to be an evening developer.

[weatherwiz]

The main show was always supposed to be after 7-8 PM lol. Anything before then was tied into the potential for discrete supercells. That obviously didn't happen because of the cloud debris/smoke and just too much capping to over come. But you have the front and shortwave moving into the environment. Things are going to take off

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The main show was always supposed to be after 7-8 PM lol. Anything before then was tied into the potential for discrete supercells. That obviously didn't happen because of the cloud debris/smoke and just too much capping to over come. But you have the front and shortwave moving into the environment. Things are going to take off

There is more upstream going in Ontario as well.  Looks like some supercell splits here.
 

[weatherwiz]

I'd watch the 10:00 PM - 1:00 AM window. If the HRRR is right with that evolving cluster there may be some significant wind damage (assuming storms can root surface-based). 

That's some insane DCAPE values

Very high derecho composite parameter too. Suggestive of increased potential anything becoming organized may develop an organized cold pool, enhancing wind potential. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

There is more upstream going in Ontario as well.  Looks like some supercell splits here.
 

might be what to watch for upstate NY/VT in the next 3-5 hours

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

might be what to watch for upstate NY/VT in the next 3-5 hours

Trajectory is solid ESE and that would put it eventually into cntrl VT.
 

"

[dendrite]

Hopefully some very safe rain tonight.

If mama nature wants to get violent she can hit the couple of dumpy trailers up the hill. 

[CoastalWx]

Good theta-e axis running through VT into central and srn NH tonight. Can see the axis right through 850 too and the MUCAPE axis there as well. Might even have to watch near the MA border.  Dendrite under the gun. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We are looking for every coop down. Full chicken blowdowns northern 4 counties 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good theta-e axis running through VT into central and srn NH tonight. Can see the axis right through 850 too and the MUCAPE axis there as well. Might even have to watch near the MA border.  Dendrite under the gun. 

What do you figure for timing?  Our daughter will be driving home from near Saratoga Springs after 10PM. Won’t be home until 1AM or so. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What do you figure for timing?  Our daughter will be driving home from near Saratoga Springs after 10PM. Won’t be home until 1AM or so. 

Looks to be well after that. She should be fine. 

[powderfreak]

Heavy rain now but oddly no lightning or thunder that I can see/hear.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks to be well after that. She should be fine. 

Appreciate it.   Looks to be Stein down here anyway but the NY/VT parts always get me nervous

[Tolland Death Band]

Currently camping in N Conway. Dead air, distant flashes. Expecting nothing

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Tolland Death Band said:

Currently camping in N Conway. Dead air, distant flashes. Expecting nothing

Congrats on a tstm 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Meh here so far in Mt. Vernon Maine.  A few rumbles now, a bit of thunder, a flash of lighting. and some light rain earlier.  

[Torch Tiger]

NE severe season 

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, Tolland Death Band said:

Currently camping in N Conway. Dead air, distant flashes. Expecting nothing

Should be hitting soon.