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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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OceanStWx
OceanStWx

This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest. Around here you typi

Arnold214
Arnold214

It's an EML event, and they tend to run later than our normal crappy svr up here. Somebody in VT or NH or ME or all three should get crushed badly later tonight.

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant s

Posted Images

weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Front/trough continue advancing south 

image.thumb.png.d14d72d1d880c29aca75e5a6915d0a9f.png

EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping

image.png.87ea1d9a2082d4a74f43ffed211eafa4.png

MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG

image.png.6b44b7cdb14a06b53515c0831266b946.png

Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed

image.png.f6e402303990582ef0e305381c4b850c.png

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Front/trough continue advancing south 

image.thumb.png.d14d72d1d880c29aca75e5a6915d0a9f.png

EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping

image.png.87ea1d9a2082d4a74f43ffed211eafa4.png

MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG

image.png.6b44b7cdb14a06b53515c0831266b946.png

Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed

image.png.f6e402303990582ef0e305381c4b850c.png

 

stp.png

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What an incredible bust. Wildfire smoke for the loss.

That stuff really got entrained and concentrated ahead of the front. Surface based stuff may be a loss, but these lapse rates could produce hail all night along with a rogue wind gust.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Jancock unsure 

 

IMG_4656.png

Bust in ME?  The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME.  Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall.

The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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SPC is clearly hedging off though

Words like “unclear“ or pretty good indicators that things aren’t really looking the way they were yesterday and how could they be…

Might be about time for them to admit they were just as smoke boned as everybody else’s forecast. 
 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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13 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Bust in ME?  The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME.  Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall.

The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.  

Seems like a ..

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Bust in ME?  The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME.  Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall.

The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.  

Didn’t all the CAMs show more activity in Maine than has happened?

It’s ok if it “busts”, no one saw the smoke coming.  This has been a pretty hyped day, to the point that people who don’t follow weather have been talking about it up here.  We were supposed to be like 90F today and instead low-80s.  That has to matter. 

Our time in VT has always been like 9p-1a though… but like Tyler in the post, I thought Maine would’ve been lit up already.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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Just now, powderfreak said:

Didn’t all the CAMs show more activity in Maine than has happened?

It’s ok if it “busts”, no one saw the smoke coming.  This has been a pretty hyped day, to the point that people who don’t follow weather have been talking about it up here.

Our time in VT has always been like 9p-1a though… but like Tyler in the post, I thought Maine would’ve been lit up already.

 

Is Jancock the main TV met up there? When I was as up there traveling they seemed to be the main tv met up. Started they career with Hammer in HFD

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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The main show was always supposed to be after 7-8 PM lol. Anything before then was tied into the potential for discrete supercells. That obviously didn't happen because of the cloud debris/smoke and just too much capping to over come. But you have the front and shortwave moving into the environment. Things are going to take off

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The main show was always supposed to be after 7-8 PM lol. Anything before then was tied into the potential for discrete supercells. That obviously didn't happen because of the cloud debris/smoke and just too much capping to over come. But you have the front and shortwave moving into the environment. Things are going to take off

There is more upstream going in Ontario as well.  Looks like some supercell splits here.
 

loop.gif

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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I'd watch the 10:00 PM - 1:00 AM window. If the HRRR is right with that evolving cluster there may be some significant wind damage (assuming storms can root surface-based). 

That's some insane DCAPE values

image.png.25a1f6714beea57eaa94ba8cfe512517.png

Very high derecho composite parameter too. Suggestive of increased potential anything becoming organized may develop an organized cold pool, enhancing wind potential. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good theta-e axis running through VT into central and srn NH tonight. Can see the axis right through 850 too and the MUCAPE axis there as well. Might even have to watch near the MA border.  Dendrite under the gun. 

What do you figure for timing?  Our daughter will be driving home from near Saratoga Springs after 10PM. Won’t be home until 1AM or so. 

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