Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[weatherwiz]

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground

Also, doesn’t seem to be diving as much SE as I would have thought, more NE? 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Also, doesn’t seem to be diving as much SE as I would have thought, more NE? 

It's early.

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground

Sounds about right. Don't think anyone is calling for 4" region-wide. There'll be some jackpots for sure.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Also, doesn’t seem to be diving as much SE as I would have thought, more NE? 

There is still a quite a bit of uncertainty in how the whole thing evolves for sure. I mean if you look at the latest NAM's, there is actually some potential we get enough drying and maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow (especially in CT) that we could pop isolated thunderstorms with potential for localized damaging wind gust or even a brief tornado. 

I was thinking the greatest max would be west of here...Hudson into NJ but its possible you may see the max zone be something like northeast CT into northeast MA and southern NH and then a few local maxes elsewhere. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, kdxken said:

Sounds about right. Don't think anyone is calling for 4" region-wide. There'll be some jackpots for sure.

Not so sure about that 

Some of the maps being posted around makes it seem like Noah needs to make another appearance from heaven  

Great to be getting some of these setups lately. Giving people much needed rain without the concern for significant flooding issues. I know there was the flooding within SW CT last week but these events are perfect to tackle the deficit without cause for major concern

[Ginx snewx]

So much for the HHH hottest summer ever Top5! Weeklies BDL 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much for the HHH hottest summer ever Top5! Weeklies 

I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo. 

[Torch Tiger]

weaklies.  lol  what a dummy

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'm staying conservative here in the valley.  Thinking more like 1.5-2" which is fine.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo. 

It’s a very humid pattern from today onwards. Not many 90’s thru early Augdewst.. but daily dews to enjoy 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo. 

it's like lousy winters when the cold is pushed back and back....

[Brian5671]

Radar lighting up a bit around here

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a very humid pattern from today onwards. Not many 90’s thru early Augdewst.. but daily dews to enjoy 

No fresh Canadian airmasses . It ain’t the heat , it’s the humidity. Nino Aug/Sept famous for