Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Torch Tiger]

Some will get 1-3", some will get more, some will get less (Stein).  That's not a difficult forecast

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The whole thing went from SNE Jack to mainly NY state . You haven’t been looking daily while on vaca . We will get some rain obviously but wagons west for 1-5”+ etc .Pretty evident today 

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

[kdxken]

On 7/5/2026 at 4:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I still think .50-.75 is the best forecast around here . An inch of things break right 

Yep that be you.

[Typhoon Tip]

The models seem overly sensitive/bad physics somehow in these feathery weak gradients/higher thickness synopsis. 

I mean look at the NAM. All protestations aside … still, it takes a thunderstorm complex over Milwaukee, turns it in a small low then counties evolve it from these spontaneous looking origins as it carries it to the Del Marva … where uses it to generate -2 relative to season SD 990mb coastal gale … I guess  

I dunno part of me just wonders if we’re getting a reality check fake out when we’re on top of the thing … something less “engineered”  

By the way … it’s tentative but we may be seeing a spring 2023-like global thermal surge.  Air and sea presently lurching … we’ll see 

[weatherwiz]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there’s pretty good potential for a good 1-3” over a widespread area. Someone will get much more where it pivots. You have instability working in over high theta e converging on a warm front. 

Agreed

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

No . You are thinking about early month . Nailed the last one as well 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wagons NW

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

The good news with that set up is you pump humid air out ahead of it with good pwats and it won’t take much to tally up some quick appreciable rainfall in New England as the front lifts NEward.  Though I haven’t looked close enough to see if it’s occluded by that point. 

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

Hmmm One would think that the rainfall would spin around the low. Straight North you say.

[Torch Tiger]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

a little over 1" here on the 12z...whoop-de-do

[ineedsnow]

the good news is July should average below normal for some now.. what a change 

[ineedsnow]

JU-PLY ending JU-NIED 

[Torch Tiger]

beers  

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

the good news is July should average below normal for some now.. what a change 

Hottest ever summer lolz!

[weatherwiz]

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is  

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is  

lol by the end of the week most will have it.. I'll share 

 

Edit.. the green spec is west of me not by much though 

[kdxken]

61° already. Another night in the lower 50s by the looks. Good thing with energy prices as they are.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

18z is wet for most

[kdxken]

Can we put tariffs on a state?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Can we put tariffs on a state?

Canada should tariff us or make us the 11th province 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not there yet.. but starting to wonder if this ends up congrats NY state and ends up shafting at minimum river East . 18z Reggie and NAM

 

It wasn’t done at 84hr on the models, but I don’t like the system getting shunted southward as it gets toward this longitude either. Rain will pinwheel around and pivot in, but we’re flirting with mid level dry air in some of these runs.

The 18z euro suite is pretty wet up into NNE. 

[kdxken]

 

[CoastalWx]

Probably convection thrown into that too. Mesos will be interesting tomorrow.

[champy]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

Of course he did because he's a complete moron. Hopefully he gets 6" of rain and his basement floods

[WinterWolf]

Bet on the wetter look…it’s been this for the last 3 months.  Every frieken week we kill it.  Let’s do it again Tuesday plus. It wants to rain mid week..every week. Here we go. 
 

Lawns green as can be here…looks like we keep it going!  

[vortex95]

On 7/25/2026 at 6:16 PM, ineedsnow said:

Some locations in SE MA/RI/CT are going to ended up w. their wettest July on record.  And NNE finally gets some as well!

[vortex95]

On 7/25/2026 at 8:46 PM, kdxken said:

Same dipsticks that predicted a heat wave for the end of the month. 

 

Pfftt!  "Not unlike the blizzard in Feb" as if you can synoptically compare the two?  What a bunch of crap!  "Ooo, the track is similar!" -- so?  That is meaningless by itself.  It reminds me of the "Sandy obsession" that occurred for a few years after Sandy occurred.  Some national media would put up every hurricane threatening the E Coast "track similar to Sandy."  Stupid,. Using a recent high-end event for more hype.  Think about so many in NYC and NJ after Sandy and the trauma that occurred from the record storm surge.  That's non-trivial stress brought up from ppl just hearing that passively!

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Gotta be extremely careful here just rip and reading total QPF maps. It might be difficult to get widespread amounts as modeled. The axis of highest totals is going to be confined to where the warm front is located and this will be a narrow axis. Also potential for this to close off to our west which would introduce dry slot concerns. Going to be a quite a bit of convection though so there are going to be some areas that probably get smoked, but we may see some drastic differences in precip. amounts across the region when all said and done. There should be some concern though for some significant flash flooding but how widespread? 

CoastalWx gonna pull out his warm front QPF fcst rule of thumb?

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

To be fair the average is 90 right now in miles city

That a good point.  Actually I just looked, and ydy MLS avg high is 91. 

102 is wicked hot for us in New England, but when the avg high temp in July is 6-9 F cooler 91 that in places like BOS/PVD/BDL, it is not so hot to residents in Miles City.

The notion that 90 is some kind of benchmark for hot wx is misguided, but try telling that to the MSM.  Once again, the E Coast bias, more specifically DCA-BOS, applies here, as if that is typical climate!  You often hear X percentage of the CONUS or states AOA 90 on any summer day, acting likethat is universally unusual. No it isn't when about 40% of the country has an avg high 90 or higher!  Geez, 90 in PHX or LAS in the summer is a *cool* day for them!

I was told one time the way to calculate hot, or usually warm, is take the avg high for the location for a given day, and go 2 standard deviations above that.  But I am not sure if you can apply that in all seasons, since big temp swings and deviations are much more common in the winter than summer and the closer to the polar regions you get, the bigger the swings overall.

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there’s pretty good potential for a good 1-3” over a widespread area. Someone will get much more where it pivots. You have instability working in over high theta e converging on a warm front. 

Ahh, the warm front!  Your lawn will thank you!  LOL.