Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Torch Tiger]

Some will get 1-3", some will get more, some will get less (Stein).  That's not a difficult forecast

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The whole thing went from SNE Jack to mainly NY state . You haven’t been looking daily while on vaca . We will get some rain obviously but wagons west for 1-5”+ etc .Pretty evident today 

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

[kdxken]

On 7/5/2026 at 4:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I still think .50-.75 is the best forecast around here . An inch of things break right 

Yep that be you.

[Typhoon Tip]

The models seem overly sensitive/bad physics somehow in these feathery weak gradients/higher thickness synopsis. 

I mean look at the NAM. All protestations aside … still, it takes a thunderstorm complex over Milwaukee, turns it in a small low then counties evolve it from these spontaneous looking origins as it carries it to the Del Marva … where uses it to generate -2 relative to season SD 990mb coastal gale … I guess  

I dunno part of me just wonders if we’re getting a reality check fake out when we’re on top of the thing … something less “engineered”  

By the way … it’s tentative but we may be seeing a spring 2023-like global thermal surge.  Air and sea presently lurching … we’ll see 

[weatherwiz]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there’s pretty good potential for a good 1-3” over a widespread area. Someone will get much more where it pivots. You have instability working in over high theta e converging on a warm front. 

Agreed

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

No . You are thinking about early month . Nailed the last one as well 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wagons NW

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

The good news with that set up is you pump humid air out ahead of it with good pwats and it won’t take much to tally up some quick appreciable rainfall in New England as the front lifts NEward.  Though I haven’t looked close enough to see if it’s occluded by that point. 

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

Hmmm One would think that the rainfall would spin around the low. Straight North you say.

[Torch Tiger]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

a little over 1" here on the 12z...whoop-de-do

[ineedsnow]

the good news is July should average below normal for some now.. what a change 

[ineedsnow]

JU-PLY ending JU-NIED 

[Torch Tiger]

beers  

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

the good news is July should average below normal for some now.. what a change 

Hottest ever summer lolz!

[weatherwiz]

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is  

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is  

lol by the end of the week most will have it.. I'll share 

 

Edit.. the green spec is west of me not by much though 

[kdxken]

61° already. Another night in the lower 50s by the looks. Good thing with energy prices as they are.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

18z is wet for most

[kdxken]

Can we put tariffs on a state?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Can we put tariffs on a state?

Canada should tariff us or make us the 11th province 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not there yet.. but starting to wonder if this ends up congrats NY state and ends up shafting at minimum river East . 18z Reggie and NAM

 

It wasn’t done at 84hr on the models, but I don’t like the system getting shunted southward as it gets toward this longitude either. Rain will pinwheel around and pivot in, but we’re flirting with mid level dry air in some of these runs.

The 18z euro suite is pretty wet up into NNE. 

[kdxken]

 

[CoastalWx]

Probably convection thrown into that too. Mesos will be interesting tomorrow.