Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Torch Tiger]

Some will get 1-3", some will get more, some will get less (Stein).  That's not a difficult forecast

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The whole thing went from SNE Jack to mainly NY state . You haven’t been looking daily while on vaca . We will get some rain obviously but wagons west for 1-5”+ etc .Pretty evident today 

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

[kdxken]

On 7/5/2026 at 4:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I still think .50-.75 is the best forecast around here . An inch of things break right 

Yep that be you.

[Typhoon Tip]

The models seem overly sensitive/bad physics somehow in these feathery weak gradients/higher thickness synopsis. 

I mean look at the NAM. All protestations aside … still, it takes a thunderstorm complex over Milwaukee, turns it in a small low then counties evolve it from these spontaneous looking origins as it carries it to the Del Marva … where uses it to generate -2 relative to season SD 990mb coastal gale … I guess  

I dunno part of me just wonders if we’re getting a reality check fake out when we’re on top of the thing … something less “engineered”  

By the way … it’s tentative but we may be seeing a spring 2023-like global thermal surge.  Air and sea presently lurching … we’ll see 

[weatherwiz]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think there’s pretty good potential for a good 1-3” over a widespread area. Someone will get much more where it pivots. You have instability working in over high theta e converging on a warm front. 

Agreed

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer? 

No . You are thinking about early month . Nailed the last one as well 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wagons NW

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons NW

The good news with that set up is you pump humid air out ahead of it with good pwats and it won’t take much to tally up some quick appreciable rainfall in New England as the front lifts NEward.  Though I haven’t looked close enough to see if it’s occluded by that point.