Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[ravensrule]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO. 

Who hacked your account Chuck? You're making me nervous with your positivity. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold?

I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case

An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao. 

[Cobalt]

On 9/14/2026 at 8:27 PM, Terpeast said:

2 things can be true. A winter could be warm and rainy, and it could also have a blizzard. 

This is the thing forky is deliberately forgetting. 2023-24 averaged 0.7F warmer (DCA) compared to 97-98, and had 8" of snowfall. 15-16 was only 0.5F colder than 97-98. Likewise, 72-73 was 3F colder than that winter, but was also a shutout. A Super Nino can overwhelm the base state with torcherrific airmasses for 90% of the winter, but it very evidently does its best to load the deck in the few intervals that temperatures are remotely seasonable.