Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[NorthArlington101]

I just wanted a dashboard. I didn’t ask for this ai slop. I was just trying to get this something done quickly and it’s for this board only. Normal people wouldn’t have a clue to what this is

I swear I’m not actually judging lol. Did assume it was going out into the world since it had your FB in the bottom left. For us I guess it’s whatever. But I will say I can also look at 51 ens members and get a sense without this haha

[SnowenOutThere]

Definitionally anything generated by LLM is “ai slop”. AI models have no concern for the truth value of any generated output. They only care about predicting the next token/pixel/line no matter how right, wrong, pretty, or sloppy it looks. Furthermore, LLMs generally suck at broad tasks. They fake confidence and competence. Ask AI about your own special interest or hobby and you will find its output riddled with rather elementary errors in reasoning. Yes, sometimes it has the right “answer” but there is no process, the appearance of a process is just it predicting the actual process that would be there. Now, this only really applies to LLM models, as once you get into machine learning in general you can make it very good at these tasks. But, for what it’s worth, this is why LLMs should never be used in forecasting or forecasting graphic generation (ofc “AI” models are machine learning systems and have value”) 

[Ji]

I swear I’m not actually judging lol. Did assume it was going out into the world since it had your FB in the bottom left. For us I guess it’s whatever. But I will say I can also look at 51 ens members and get a sense without this haha

No it was for my own curiosity. Nobody on fb wound understand this lol especially without seeing the original chart
At any rate…this winter could have 1/2 big storms or it could be like 97-98

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

No it was for my own curiosity. Nobody on fb wound understand this lol especially without seeing the original chart
At any rate…this winter could have 1/2 big storms or it could be like 97-98

We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.

[Ji]

We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.

Look what happens when we try doing that during winter storms

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

I wouldn’t be too down about it to be completely honest—with all our super Ninos, whether they were basin wide, east based, whatever—we always needed luck. The way I see it is what many other good posters have said on here, it’s essentially a coin flip as of right now and it’s impossible to tell which way it’ll go until winter arrives

It indeed has been. However for some random reason that coinflip has been remarkably consistent in that it is only every other super that snows...(65-66 yes, 72-73 no, 82-83 yes, 97-98 no, 15-16 yes). That's not meteorological but it still bothers the heck outta me for this year, lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

yea i remember that---we were laughing at how we needed the pattern to go nina for us to score snow during that Nino. That season, canada was so blowtorched that we could never recover. but the models looked really good in the fall looking ahead to that winter. Thats the scary part

Modeling showed an epic blocking pattern for February until it abruptly collapsed 10 days before it was supposed to start.

[Ji]

Modeling showed an epic blocking pattern for February until it abruptly collapsed 10 days before it was supposed to start.

I remember that too ….that was probably the most disappointing part of the winter since we were waiting the whole winter for February. . Of course, if the model showed the opposite, it would’ve verified.

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

Look what happens when we try doing that during winter storms

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss. 

That logic so absurd considering how poorly the CANSIPS is doing THIS YEAR in the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Ji said:

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

Great assessment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

As depicted its a bit warmer, but it wasn't cold on last month's edition either. I think we have a pretty good idea of how this winter will go. Need a -AO and or EPO to bring some colder air close enough to work with for a time.

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great assessment.

Ji and "great assessment" isn't something you hear every day lmao

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That logic so absurd considering how poorly the CANSIPS is doing THIS YEAR in the Pacific.

Actually, I  was just playing the part of a weenie with JI.

But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24  is sorta beyond absurd too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Actually, I  was just playing the part of a weenie with JI.

But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24  is sorta beyond absurd too. 

No, it isn't because the EURO is more accurate in the Pacific THIS YEAR. If you want to say all seasonal guidance should be taken with a grain of salt, I agree....but CANSIPS requires a larger grain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@mitchnickIf you look at the Pacific right now, then look at the CANSIPS.....the El Nino is very east-based, whereas the CANSIPS has been trending further east with each run, but is still central-based. It's also much too cool with the waters east of Japan. These inconsistencies coupled with the trend of guidance to underestimate the magnitude of ridges over the past decade plus should leave you very skeptical of the CANSIPS trending NORTHWARD with the lower heights, thus constricting the Canadian edge even further to the north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

While I think that the NAO will average positive in the DJFM mean, I do not expect wall-to-wall +NAO, and there are some signs of some pretty significant blocking in the second half....even EURO has that, though it's probably overdone.

Sept:

 

 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is interesting is that the EURO actually has a -NPO forecast, which was not the case in 2023....there is plenty of reason to believe that this season won't be as warm as 2023 across the east.

There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. 

But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter. Lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The reason that the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO is that the North Pacific Oscillation is pretty deeply negative so there is a real fire house of  PAC jet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. 

But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter. Lol

 

I think most guidance is too cold, but I expect a better season than 2023, if that makes sense....

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m waiting for @aldie 22 to tell me what this winter will bring.

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m waiting for @aldie 22 to tell me what this winter will bring.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss. 

The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10

Really? Don't believe everything you read over in the main Enso thread. The seasonal models will not nail every location. Here's the 9/25 forecast off the Cansips for 12/25-2/26. It has BWI +.5C, so say +1F. What happened at BWI? Every month was BN with an everage for the 3 months of -3.7F. So it was too cold in Colorado, and who cares, and too warm where we live.