Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[NorthArlington101]

I just wanted a dashboard. I didn’t ask for this ai slop. I was just trying to get this something done quickly and it’s for this board only. Normal people wouldn’t have a clue to what this is

I swear I’m not actually judging lol. Did assume it was going out into the world since it had your FB in the bottom left. For us I guess it’s whatever. But I will say I can also look at 51 ens members and get a sense without this haha

[SnowenOutThere]

Definitionally anything generated by LLM is “ai slop”. AI models have no concern for the truth value of any generated output. They only care about predicting the next token/pixel/line no matter how right, wrong, pretty, or sloppy it looks. Furthermore, LLMs generally suck at broad tasks. They fake confidence and competence. Ask AI about your own special interest or hobby and you will find its output riddled with rather elementary errors in reasoning. Yes, sometimes it has the right “answer” but there is no process, the appearance of a process is just it predicting the actual process that would be there. Now, this only really applies to LLM models, as once you get into machine learning in general you can make it very good at these tasks. But, for what it’s worth, this is why LLMs should never be used in forecasting or forecasting graphic generation (ofc “AI” models are machine learning systems and have value”) 

[Ji]

I swear I’m not actually judging lol. Did assume it was going out into the world since it had your FB in the bottom left. For us I guess it’s whatever. But I will say I can also look at 51 ens members and get a sense without this haha

No it was for my own curiosity. Nobody on fb wound understand this lol especially without seeing the original chart
At any rate…this winter could have 1/2 big storms or it could be like 97-98

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

No it was for my own curiosity. Nobody on fb wound understand this lol especially without seeing the original chart
At any rate…this winter could have 1/2 big storms or it could be like 97-98

We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.

[Ji]

We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.

Look what happens when we try doing that during winter storms

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

I wouldn’t be too down about it to be completely honest—with all our super Ninos, whether they were basin wide, east based, whatever—we always needed luck. The way I see it is what many other good posters have said on here, it’s essentially a coin flip as of right now and it’s impossible to tell which way it’ll go until winter arrives

It indeed has been. However for some random reason that coinflip has been remarkably consistent in that it is only every other super that snows...(65-66 yes, 72-73 no, 82-83 yes, 97-98 no, 15-16 yes). That's not meteorological but it still bothers the heck outta me for this year, lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

yea i remember that---we were laughing at how we needed the pattern to go nina for us to score snow during that Nino. That season, canada was so blowtorched that we could never recover. but the models looked really good in the fall looking ahead to that winter. Thats the scary part

Modeling showed an epic blocking pattern for February until it abruptly collapsed 10 days before it was supposed to start.

[Ji]

Modeling showed an epic blocking pattern for February until it abruptly collapsed 10 days before it was supposed to start.

I remember that too ….that was probably the most disappointing part of the winter since we were waiting the whole winter for February. . Of course, if the model showed the opposite, it would’ve verified.

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

Look what happens when we try doing that during winter storms

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.