Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 With inflation, I've figured out the following regarding Energy trading and the coming Winter: Natural Gas price >$5.00, more likely -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$5.00, more likely +NAO Winter Natural Gas price >$10.00, very high likelihood of -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$2.50, very high likelihood of +NAO Winter Natural Gas is currently trading at $3.13. December '26 contract, $4.01. March '27 contract, $3.21. Top 10 Most positive Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$6.00 Top 12 Most negative Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$2.60 In January 2026, the price of NG jumped from $3.12 to $7.40 as a really cold pattern set in. This was forecasted ahead of time by the CPC with no market reaction until it was days to weeks away. This cold period was associated with the 4th longest on record (since the early 1900s) that Baltimore had more than 4" of snow on the ground. The price then collapsed back to $3.40 in early February, and $2.80 by late February, and then March 2026 ended up being the warmest month relative to average on record for the CONUS, all time. There is a little lead in the NG price, but also sometimes weather patterns are a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Deep -PDO continues (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 03:39 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 03:39 PM 12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Deep -PDO continues (time sensitive) lets get that fixed 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM PDO trending in the wrong direction at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 12:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:40 AM 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: PDO trending in the wrong direction at this time. True, but hopefully things start to change as we exit August. We have seen rapid improvements in as little as 90 days during previous Fall seasons leading into Winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:19 AM The PDO has been negative for years and we have still managed to snow. Most of those years have been Ninas(correlates to -PDO) so we shall see how it goes with a strong Nino. I would expect it to trend positive as we head into Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Thursday at 02:43 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:43 AM On 6/9/2026 at 6:08 PM, IronTy said: JB is reading last rites for the winter with the 97-98 analogue. How do we trade this and make bank? TIMING. Time the cold with the anomalous moisture associated with a super nino episode you have a brobdingnagian blizzard for DCA and the entire sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:03 AM 45 minutes ago, CAPE said: The PDO has been negative for years and we have still managed to snow. Most of those years have been Ninas(correlates to -PDO) so we shall see how it goes with a strong Nino. I would expect it to trend positive as we head into Fall. Before last Winter, PHL's lowest 7-year snowfall on record was 13.3"/yr. 2018-2025 was 10.5"/yr, a pretty big difference. They were the epicenter of the snow drought but I think had a near average season last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:08 AM We've had 13 straight February's with +NAO. 10/13 were >+1.00. Something has to give there. For comparison, our last Winter one month (DJFM) with NAO <-1.11 was Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:09 AM 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Before last Winter, PHL's lowest 7-year snowfall on record was 13.3"/yr. 2018-2025 was 10.5"/yr, a pretty big difference. They were the epicenter of the snow drought but I think had a near average season last year. Yet south of there- eastern MD and DE- have done very well with snowfall wrt to avg since 2017. Rehoboth has had 3 or 4 blizzards between 2017 and last year. Pretty anomalous. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 03:11 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:11 AM 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yet south of there- eastern MD and DE- have done very well with snowfall wrt to avg since 2017. Rehoboth has had 3 or 4 blizzards between 2017 and last year. Pretty anomalous. +ENSO tends to be more borderline, where -ENSO can flatten out the Atlantic ridge in -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:33 PM Didn't realize this thread was here. I've been over the main Enso thread fighting the warmanistas with no help from @Stormchaserchuck1. Honestly, the Cfs2 does have historic potential written all over it for February and March. Coincidentally, latest 500mb runs for December looked similar at times to Euro seasonal fwiw. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:34 AM On 6/9/2026 at 8:14 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: With inflation, I've figured out the following regarding Energy trading and the coming Winter: Natural Gas price >$5.00, more likely -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$5.00, more likely +NAO Winter Natural Gas price >$10.00, very high likelihood of -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$2.50, very high likelihood of +NAO Winter Natural Gas is currently trading at $3.13. December '26 contract, $4.01. March '27 contract, $3.21. Top 10 Most positive Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$6.00 Top 12 Most negative Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$2.60 In January 2026, the price of NG jumped from $3.12 to $7.40 as a really cold pattern set in. This was forecasted ahead of time by the CPC with no market reaction until it was days to weeks away. This cold period was associated with the 4th longest on record (since the early 1900s) that Baltimore had more than 4" of snow on the ground. The price then collapsed back to $3.40 in early February, and $2.80 by late February, and then March 2026 ended up being the warmest month relative to average on record for the CONUS, all time. There is a little lead in the NG price, but also sometimes weather patterns are a surprise. So you're saying we just can't know yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Saturday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Saturday at 12:41 AM 9 minutes ago, IronTy said: So you're saying we just can't know yet? I'm saying exactly that the current price is $3.14, and usually $5.00 is the over/under mark for a good Winter. Of course anything can happen between now and the Winter, but if you think it's going to go up then trade it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:07 PM On 6/5/2026 at 5:43 PM, Jebman said: You time all the moisture a strong Nino brings with cold air = serious Brobdingnagian blizzard that could set new 200 year records for DCA and the entire sub! Moisture laden storm in our sub, cold air in our sub, Super Nino in the sub, OUR Super Nino. Look out Mid Atlantic! You're gonna need a MUCH BIGGER SHOVEL! God I hope ur right bro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Latest CFS for mid/late winter, Fwiw. Very Nino, and has a general look that could produce a big snowstorm or two even if the overall winter is on the mild side. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest CFS for mid/late winter, Fwiw. Very Nino, and has a general look that could produce a big snowstorm or two even if the overall winter is on the mild side. You give me that hemispheric look and I'll take my chances 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago Latest CFS for mid/late winter, Fwiw. Very Nino, and has a general look that could produce a big snowstorm or two even if the overall winter is on the mild side. Doesn’t that update like four times a day though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 49 minutes ago, Ji said: Doesn’t that update like four times a day though lol No. It sucks on WB, as each update is a single run. On TT its the avg of the last 12 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago On 6/3/2026 at 4:32 PM, Ji said: What can possibly go wrong? We got the right model on our side! I wouldn't completely dismiss this rather uncanny resemblance to last season, despite ENSO...one hallmark of CC that I have noticed is that these patterns tend to stagnate and become a theme over several seasons.....previously, we had the never-ending cold west/warm east +WPO look, but the north Pacific seems to have flipped starting with the the 2024-2025 season. It has remained rather dry, albeit colder, but ENSO is likely going to be the vehicle for change with respect to having precipitation pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago On 6/4/2026 at 6:33 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year: Winter 25-26: DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino: Winter 25-26: The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this past Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like? ^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples: So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought. It's closer to 50/50, just based on history. That data set seems to have a great deal of -PDO warm ENSO events, which may explain the curious QPF deficit. Super events were very dry over the interior, implying a coastal storm track...small sample size, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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