Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Ji]

What can possibly go wrong? We got the right model on our side!

[WEATHER53]

I see some very good signs analog outcome wise.  Even a colder month 26-27 and more snow 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

What can possibly go wrong? We got the right model on our side!

You didn't post h5 for Feb. The time for an east coast historic blizzard. +PNA, -EPO and -NAO.

 

[IronTy]

It's locked in.  Just like the wet period this month, I've got a good feeling.  

[Weather Will]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

What can possibly go wrong? We got the right model on our side!

Thanks for starting the thread!!!!!

[BlizzardNole]

Huge snowstorms in this area were 1979, 1983, 1987, 1993 (some parts), 1996, 2000 (some parts), 2003, 2010 and 2016.  We are way overdue for a home run monster.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Huge snowstorms in this area were 1979, 1983, 1987, 1993 (some parts), 1996, 2000 (some parts), 2003, 2010 and 2016.  We are way overdue for a home run monster.

We are so overdue for a legit, snowy and cold winter from start to finish. Bring it on. Kill the drought on Miller A at a time.

[WEATHER53]

16 hours ago, IronTy said:

It's locked in.  Just like the wet period this month, I've got a good feeling.  

Get out that tent and go for some-15F camping!!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CANSIPS has a cold bias

N. Atlantic SSTAs May-September are a great predictor of coming Winter NAO state. It has started to go more negative over the past few days

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We are still contending with a strongly negative PDO. We have seen this in action, as developing Nino's usually have a -NPH (North Pacific High) correlation May-June, and the opposite has happened so far this year. 

(I would do 500mb maps, but the CDC has discontinued that site). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If I made the thread, Super Nino would be in the first post lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I find this to be an good coincidence -- I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index. But since the QBO 30mb data started in 1979, every single December (6) in QBO >+5 and ENSO +El Nino -- has had the same anomaly temperature pattern. There is a >90% chance this will be this upcoming December (+QBO/+ENSO). Not only is every map the same, but they are strong anomalies in the Northeast and Great Lakes in every example. Will be interesting to see what happens in December 2026: 

Following January in +QBO/El Nino:

The map skews warmer for El Nino because the +QBO state favors a stronger Stratosphere Polar Vortex. This has correlation with +AO in the +0-day. 

Not a definite constant, but a higher average in the mean (deep 10mb SPV) -- El nino by itself correlates with more High pressure in the Stratosphere. 

+QBO Winter upcoming. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year:

Winter 25-26:

DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino:

Winter 25-26:

The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this past Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. 

Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like?

^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples:

So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought. It's closer to 50/50, just based on history. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PDO numbers this decade.. 77 straight months of negative: Will warm ENSO break this? 

May 2026	-1.60
April 2026	-1.28
March 2026	-1.18
February 2026	-0.79
January 2026	-0.87
December 2025	-0.39
November 2025	-1.02
October 2025	-1.82
September 2025	-1.71
August 2025	-2.54
July 2025	-3.83
June 2025	-2.62
May 2025	-1.84
April 2025	-1.07
March 2025	-0.81
February 2025	-1.20
January 2025	-0.97
December 2024	-1.57
November 2024	-2.58
October 2024	-3.24
September 2024	-3.10
August 2024	-2.37
July 2024	-2.62
June 2024	-2.93
May 2024	-3.01
April 2024	-1.99
March 2024	-1.27
February 2024	-1.33
January 2024	-1.48
December 2023	-1.20
November 2023	-1.16
October 2023	-1.88
September 2023	-2.52
August 2023	-2.02
July 2023	-2.44
June 2023	-2.67
May 2023	-2.46
April 2023	-3.13
March 2023	-2.50
February 2023	-1.79
January 2023	-1.24
December 2022	-1.85
November 2022	-1.83
October 2022	-1.48
September 2022	-1.78
August 2022	-1.78
July 2022	-2.44
June 2022	-1.42
May 2022	-2.44
April 2022	-2.19
March 2022	-1.63
February 2022	-1.72
January 2022	-2.22
December 2021	-2.47
November 2021	-2.37
October 2021	-2.69
September 2021	-1.70
August 2021	-0.84
July 2021	-1.93
June 2021	-1.89
May 2021	-2.33
April 2021	-1.77
March 2021	-1.70
February 2021	-1.29
January 2021	-0.73
December 2020	-0.92
November 2020	-1.23
October 2020	-0.29
September 2020	-0.75
August 2020	-0.85
July 2020	-0.77
June 2020	-0.86
May 2020	-0.68
April 2020	-1.32
March 2020	-1.68
February 2020	-1.12
January 2020	-0.79

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Stronger El Nino/-PDO Winters are: 65-66, 72-73, 23-24

^And 65-66 was cold because of -NAO, something that isn't as connected to the PDO (more random). 

La Nina/+PDO Winters are: 83-84, 84-85, 95-96

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I have found something interesting, since the 2012, N. Hemisphere Arctic ice melt low, the Summer sea-level pressure state has been reversing the following Winter. In the 2025-2026 ENSO thread, I used this to predict a -AO for Winter 25-26. 

Here was May-Sept 2025 SLP anomaly:

Analogs [10]

Following Winter of 10 analogs (+7 months)

Winter 25-26:

Something to watch this coming warm season... do we get -SLP or +SLP anomaly over the Arctic (60-90N). Since 2012, -SLP has been followed by following cold season -AO, and +SLP has been followed by following cold season +AO. 

We are currently going more -SLP over the Arctic:

Sorry for the multi-posting, each post is an individuated point that can be responded to by itself. 

[anotherman]

If I made the thread, Super Nino would be in the first post lol

I figured it would be about chemtrails.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I figured it would be about chemtrails.

There has been much less of them for the last few years, like a fraction! In 2013 when I was in Sedona, AZ there must have been 300+, the sky looked like hell. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are still contending with a strongly negative PDO. We have seen this in action, as developing Nino's usually have a -NPH (North Pacific High) correlation May-June, and the opposite has happened so far this year. 

(I would do 500mb maps, but the CDC has discontinued that site). 

Man could you imagine if we got a PDO in the +0.5 - +1.0 range?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Man could you imagine if we got a PDO in the +0.5 - +1.0 range?

Big differences between Winter 15-16 and 23-24, probably contributed to something along the lines of the PDO (15-16 was >+1, 23-24 was <-1). 

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big differences between Winter 15-16 and 23-24, probably contributed to something along the lines of the PDO (15-16 was >+1, 23-24 was <-1). 

Is there a "magic" PDO range that we want for sustained cold and/or snow during an El Nino winter? Do we even have a large enough sample size for any statistical significance?