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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread


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Friday, September 18th, 2026 @ 5:40 AM EDT
Good morning everyone!
Clouds will disperse from north to south today as drier air filters in across the Commonwealth, with our southern tier of counties being the last to break out of this muggier air mass later in the day.
A stray shower is possible during the morning and afternoon, with rain-free conditions across our area from tonight through Saturday.
Rainfall returns on Sunday as a system tracks across the Mid-Atlantic, with periods of damp/dreary weather during the week ahead while the system lingers off the coast.
Rainfall may be heavy at times, meaning that localized flooding could occur late this weekend & during this upcoming week, though rainfall will trend more scattered and drizzly as the week wears on.
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Today will be the last day for over a week with above normal temperatures in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees. We fall off to the upper 60's to low 70's tomorrow and with near record setting low maximum temperatures possible both Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures both of those days will struggle into the mid to upper 50's. Those temperatures are typical for November 10th! In addition to the unseasonable chill this week it will also be very wet. Rain chances increase by Sunday, and chances remain each and every day of the new work week. The in-house ChescoWx model predicts over 4 inches of rain this week!

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1 hour ago, MacChump said:

kid's a freshman at PSU, going to see her this weekend and to our first game tomorrow, first real taste of fall looks like...about time!

Congrats that’s a big moment and a special time for you and her. I graduated in 2004 and have been a season ticket holder ever since. Have a great time!

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5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Congrats that’s a big moment and a special time for you and her. I graduated in 2004 and have been a season ticket holder ever since. Have a great time!

Thank you, I'm really excited to see her in the morning and cook some eggs and scrapple in the parking lot lol. You have fun tomorrow as well!

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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

515
FXUS61 KCTP 190506
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
106 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No sig changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with
cooler air settling in for tonight.

2) Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times.

3) Rainy pattern continues into much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Becoming noticeably less humid through the day
today with cooler air settling in for tonight.

With the cold front now pushing into the southern tier, high
clouds are peeling off to the south. However, moisture remains
trapped in the boundary layer resulting in widespread stratus
and a few areas of fog. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to
the low 70s in these predawn hours. Showers are expected to
remain isolated at best. A north breeze with gusts up to 20 mph
will advect a cooler and drier air mass, with temps and dewpts
in the 40s for central PA by late tonight. Patchy valley fog is
possible early Saturday morning. Most, if not all of Saturday
will be dry.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times.

Periods of potentially heavy rainfall are expected Saturday
night into Sunday. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs show at least 90th
percentile PWs returning to the region, which is supportive of
at least a marginal excessive rain signal. A surface low
expected to track over the Great Lakes will usher in this
moisture and more than enough forcing for widespread
precipitation. A few to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE should
support some heavier downpours, but little to no CAPE above the
-10C level suggests the lightning threat will be limited. Most
 likely rainfall amounts with the Sunday system are 0.50-1.50".


-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Rainy pattern continues into much of next week.

PoPs are progged to drop into the 30-40 pct range on Monday as
high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the jet stream
will remain active and amplified with Pacific disturbances
moving across the nation. By Tuesday, most guidance has a slow
moving trough in the Ohio Valley advecting warm air above a
wedge of cool sfc air in place from the aforementioned high
pressure system. This setup may linger for a few days, with up
to several inches of rainfall possible through the week. The
cold air damming will also result in high temps only in the 50s
to low 60s.

&&
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We are up to 50 tornado's for Pa. in 2026

 
star_filled_24_fds-gray-70.pngFavorites ·17 hours ago ·
 
A 5th tornado from July 18, 2026 was confirmed today. The EF1 tornado was on the ground for about a mile in Burnside Township, Centre County, PA where it downed and snapped approximately 200 trees
 
What took so long?
 
 
 
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Joey Schultz The location played the largest role. The damage path was in very thick forest within the Sproul State Forest and near impossible to access on foot. Figuring out if any damage occurred from the storm and then where it occurred was extremely difficult until new satellite imagery came out. When it does not have a human impact, there will be no specific reports nor quick need to fly a drone to scan endless forest for a possibility of occurrence. Then, we needed to reach out to our partners and find someone who was willing and available to fly a drone to locate the damage path based off what we had from satellite imagery.
 
May be an image of map and text that says 'NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Preliminary Damage Survey Results Tornado in Burnside Township, Date Time (EDT) EF1 EF Rating July 18, 2026 1atBgek4 Est. Peak Winds 04:33 PM to 04:35 PM EDT EF1 Path Length 110 mph Max Width 1.04 miles Injuries/Fatalities 中食 yards 0/0 Summary: approximately 4:33 EDT 18, 2026, supercell thunderstorm produced tornado northern Centre County just east fEddy Ridge Road near State Road. The tornado produced multiple areas concentratec tree damage the next travelled southeastward heavily woodeo area. Approximately 200 trees snapped. downed or'
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We begin a stretch today of below normal temperatures that may last through much of the remainder of September. It also looks to be a pretty wet week but with a lot of uncertainty as to how wet by later this week. The best chances of steady rain arrives tomorrow and into Sunday night. With greater chances again Tuesday. Temperature wise unseasonably chilly with highs remaining in the 50's Tuesday through Thursday with closer to 60 degrees in some of our valley locations. Overnight lows will be in the chilly upper 40's.

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