Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Could not have picked a better day to head to BID

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Unfortunately for heat lovers until that time, if and when it appears you won't find many spots cooler than here.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Unfortunately for heat lovers until that time, if and when it appears you won't find many spots cooler than here.

 

You sound far too certain of that for 222 hours out

Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense

It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You sound far too certain that for 222 hours out
 

Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense

It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

The cool charts have been wrong all spring/ summer. Right now Junorch is top 3 warmest in his area of Boston . He was posting blue BN maps everyday lol

[Chrisrotary12]

11 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though 

Could have only said the bolded

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The cool charts have been wrong all spring/ summer. Right now Junorch is top 3 warmest in his area of Boston . He was posting blue BN maps everyday lol

Lol well, I’m not in any kind of troll fight between you two

I’m just trying to clarify what I’ve already said many times too, about those probability charts, but everybody keeps posting them like it’s a colder than normal outlook.  He may not have intended that just makin sure .

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You sound far too certain of that for 222 hours out

Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense

It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

And you're confident at 360 hours?

[Torch Tiger]

I saw a truck with "f* summer" decal -snowmobile and skidoo on opposing side...surely someone who posts here 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I saw a truck with "f* summer" decal -snowmobile and skidoo on opposing side...surely someone who posts here 

ACATT

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, kdxken said:

And you're confident at 360 hours?

in this case, not any specifics, but I’m better than 50/50 that cool ‘potential’ before the end of June, we are in back below normal, is subjected to being modified ….how much so remains to be seen… And that bigger heat’s likely returned by July 1 … which means it could even be earlier

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

All true, and the newsies seem always focused on the worst-case scenarios.  ("If it bleeds, it leads.")

In any given situation, the worst-case scenario is the least likely to happen in the mean.  The notion, "better safe than sorry" is a weasel line to give an excuse to always go w/ the worst-case scenario. 

Also, "we are saving lives!"  Forecasts and awareness has become so good in recent decades, one can't hide behind that as an excuse anymore.  Lives are lost now more IMHO b/c people have become numb and apathetic to the relentless hype.  They have no idea what to believe, so many just tune it all out.   That ends up costing lives when a truly exceptional event (worst-case) occurs, and it's made even worse b/c the exceptional events are greatest risk to lives.

I admit though this is an extremely complex social issue, among other things, and no easy way to figure out what works best.  One thing i will stand by solid though. "more [warnings/alerts} is not always better!"
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though 

Timing is ideal and HRRR/RRFS show decent cells/lines!  CBs in that kind of shear are likely going to do "something."

I put it this way, "to have such a deep sfc low move over srn Quebec w/ those kinds of warm sector wind fields in June?, prove it to me something big will not happen!"  We do not have set ups like this very often, so the full range of
what can happen we really don't know.  And this set up odd in itself b/c through the roof shear and low CAPE, but it not during the cool season!

One thing about EMLs.  700-500 *only* can be misleading.  Take a look at the IAD sounding 00z 6/14 I attached. 700-500 is crappy at 5.7 C/km, but compress that layer just a bit, and the max is 7.2 C/km...EML!  I needed to inform CoastalWx about this, and he learned something new today!  

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

I would caution this does not always work well.  June 2, 1990 has a big tor outbreak in the Great Lakes/Midwest/OH Valley w/ IN getting absolutely crushed w/ 37 tor in the state (more than the 1974 Superoutbreak).  66 tor in this event w/ 7 F4s, and forecasts were big for NY/PA and New England for June 3, and a complete bust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1990_Lower_Ohio_Valley_tornado_outbreak

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, FXWX said:

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

Yes, this is a significant concern.  Too much shear and not enough instability.  You can get "cannonball CU" -- the building CU gets sliced by shear and you get part of the CU horizontally shooting downwind abruptly w/ a small cloud trail back to the other part of the CU!

However, this go/no go for any CB here "winning" or "losing" is a fine line.  If any CB can get established, the mesocyclone should be intense, and then CAPE does not matter nearly as much.  It's why you can have as little as 100-200 CAPE and get sig tors.  Most often this is in a TC situation, but it can happen in an ET low situation.

CB updrafts are maintained extremely well despite low CAPE due to dynamic pressure perturbations induced by the mesocyclones.  It also is why when an intense supercell moves into a stable (no CAPE) air mass, it can still produce tors for a little while longer b/c the intense mesocyclone present just doesn't go "poof!"

The ante Thursday here is high here either way.  It will definitely be a wicked nowcast situation watching storm development and evolving

[vortex95]

Concerning low CAPE and high shear, look at what happened on 4/1/2023 in DE.  WxWiz in disbelief and CoastalWx proby
"MEH!"  LOL.
https://x.com/riotrogerriot/status/1642347623733444609

This is a full-blown tornadic supercell, but it doesn't look like one b/c the CAPE was low and shear very high.  The CB is tilted over almost 90 deg!  500-1000 CAPE this day, but want to know what the 0-6 km shear was?  100 kt!

This storm produced a long-tracked EF3.  Isolated storm all by itself in the Delmarva.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4esg-DNoO5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyVPX7-ZHhw

Other cells this day in DC area (not svr - I witnessed personally), they were just like this, so ridiculously titled over, they did not look like CBs, just a TCU cloud line.  The rain/hail from these storms was *way* downwind (5+ mi) from the rear updraft base (it was hard to tell these bases existed b/c of the extreme tilt!).  One my co-workers who lives near BWI reported he just started getting 1/2" hail and no rain falling, or any idea there was a storm near b/c of the odd storm orientation and no LTG/T.  Something you'd more typically see in the Plains or Desert SW.

Quite atypical for the East Coast, but it shows it can happen. And what do we have coming up for Thu?  Quite atypical. "Hope floats" WxWiz!  

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning low CAPE and high shear, look at what happened on 4/1/2023 in DE.  WxWiz in disbelief and CoastalWx proby
"MEH!"  LOL.
https://x.com/riotrogerriot/status/1642347623733444609

This is a full-blown tornadic supercell, but it doesn't look like one b/c the CAPE was low and shear very high.  The CB is tilted over almost 90 deg!  500-1000 CAPE this day, but want to know what the 0-6 km shear was?  100 kt!

This storm produced a long-tracked EF3.  Isolated storm all by itself in the Delmarva.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4esg-DNoO5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyVPX7-ZHhw

Other cells this day in DC area (not svr - I witnessed personally), they were just like this, so ridiculously titled over, they did not look like CBs, just a TCU cloud line.  The rain/hail from these storms was *way* downwind (5+ mi) from the rear updraft base (it was hard to tell these bases existed b/c of the extreme tilt!).  One my co-workers who lives near BWI reported he just started getting 1/2" hail and no rain falling, or any idea there was a storm near b/c of the odd storm orientation and no LTG/T.  Something you'd more typically see in the Plains or Desert SW.

Quite atypical for the East Coast, but it shows it can happen. And what do we have coming up for Thu?  Quite atypical. "Hope floats" WxWiz!  

6/6/2010  ...forever gun-shy

[Torch Tiger]

funny because the very next year produced some of the highest end severe we've seen in a century    ofc largely EML-driven

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

6/6/2010  ...forever gun-shy

I don't recall that day.  Big bust?

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I don't recall that day.  Big bust?

Yes, one of the most memorable ever, really.  tremendous shear - weak/mid cape - terrible ml lapse rates/ml cape.  SPC was at least a moderate hatch if not high risk?  it was wild. Very little happened

[Torch Tiger]

I haven't given up on Thursday - 0z mesos look okay wrt potential

[vortex95]

23 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yes, one of the most memorable ever, really.  tremendous shear - weak/mid cape - terrible ml lapse rates/ml cape.  SPC was at least a moderate hatch if not high risk?  it was wild. Very little happened

Took a look at it (attached).  Not quite the same.  Sfc low passed right over SNE rather than over srn Quebec.  Also, sfc low Thu deeper than 2010 by 8-10 mb.  Too much cloudiness in 2010?

Even if this was very similar to 2010, minor differences can be a huge as to sensible wx when it comes to convective potential and the type of svr wx they produce, let alone how intense any given svr wx type may be.

Also, I think we may be unimpressed by the SPC DY2 MRGL.  Just b/c MRGL says zero about how intense any storm may be and the svr wx it produces.  Maybe instead of three well-defined tornadic supercells that occurred on 7/10/89, they may be only one!   But for ppl like WxWiz and CoastalWx who are always looking for the absolute max?  One honkin' supercell is not enough!
 

[Torch Tiger]

I wasn't comparing them like that-lol  but both seem to be missing steep ml llase rates, and that is usually the one key missing ingredient in sne setups that fail.

[vortex95]

11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I wasn't comparing them like that-lol  but both seem to be missing steep ml llase rates, and that is usually the one key missing ingredient in sne setups that fail.

EML for sig tor outbreak, yes, but it depends what we expect.  SPC isn't going big, and I agree w/ how they are approaching it.  However, I think the uncertainty is higher than usual due to the setup.  When you have high-end anomalies, such as the wind fields here, that can lead to more surprises.  I said earlier, I don't have a good analog for this particular setup, so that makes me nervous as to the surprise factor.

[vortex95]

06z HRRR fcst sounding valid 20z Thu for central MA attached.

Rhetorical question: Is that not a great hodograph for the NEUS?  Nice long curve?  CAPE is almost 1000.  Yes it could be higher, but you can't just shake a stick at this sounding.  Look at the shear values.

Also, look at the 0-3km CAPE valid 22z.  As high as 205.  Anything above 75 is considered good for low-level vortex stretching and tors.

Yes, SPC does not even has a 2% tor risk anywhere for E Coast, but that does not mean any can't occur.

Also, HRRR fcst 22z, MU CAPE as high as 2100 over "WxWiz land."  Hmmm. 1500-2000 CAPE w/ very high shear can and has "got it done" historically in the past for CONUS sig spinner days.

Timing is ideal.

Not trying to hedge or hype here, just calling it as I see it.  The svr wx parameters look quite good to me.  Coverage of svr I bet will be limited, but any individual storm could be nasty!

"But we need an EML!!!!"  Ugh, not every sig tor in New England has had a solid EML present! 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s coastal next week.

[vortex95]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s coastal next week.

Good, we need the R+.

[Hoth]

6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

6/6/2010  ...forever gun-shy

Yeah that one hurt a lot.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sell the coastal . Convection will rob most of the moisture 

[weatherwiz]

Forget the stupid hazard type. But holy hell WTF