Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Could not have picked a better day to head to BID

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Unfortunately for heat lovers until that time, if and when it appears you won't find many spots cooler than here.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Unfortunately for heat lovers until that time, if and when it appears you won't find many spots cooler than here.

 

You sound far too certain of that for 222 hours out

Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense

It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You sound far too certain that for 222 hours out
 

Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense

It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

The cool charts have been wrong all spring/ summer. Right now Junorch is top 3 warmest in his area of Boston . He was posting blue BN maps everyday lol

[Chrisrotary12]

11 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though 

Could have only said the bolded

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The cool charts have been wrong all spring/ summer. Right now Junorch is top 3 warmest in his area of Boston . He was posting blue BN maps everyday lol

Lol well, I’m not in any kind of troll fight between you two

I’m just trying to clarify what I’ve already said many times too, about those probability charts, but everybody keeps posting them like it’s a colder than normal outlook.  He may not have intended that just makin sure .

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You sound far too certain of that for 222 hours out

Also keep in mind those are probability charts are not actually cooler than normal in the scaler sense

It’s telling you, there’s a low chance for cooler than normal and it doesn’t say how much cooler is normal either

And you're confident at 360 hours?

[Torch Tiger]

I saw a truck with "f* summer" decal -snowmobile and skidoo on opposing side...surely someone who posts here 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I saw a truck with "f* summer" decal -snowmobile and skidoo on opposing side...surely someone who posts here 

ACATT

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, kdxken said:

And you're confident at 360 hours?

in this case, not any specifics, but I’m better than 50/50 that cool ‘potential’ before the end of June, we are in back below normal, is subjected to being modified ….how much so remains to be seen… And that bigger heat’s likely returned by July 1 … which means it could even be earlier

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

All true, and the newsies seem always focused on the worst-case scenarios.  ("If it bleeds, it leads.")

In any given situation, the worst-case scenario is the least likely to happen in the mean.  The notion, "better safe than sorry" is a weasel line to give an excuse to always go w/ the worst-case scenario. 

Also, "we are saving lives!"  Forecasts and awareness has become so good in recent decades, one can't hide behind that as an excuse anymore.  Lives are lost now more IMHO b/c people have become numb and apathetic to the relentless hype.  They have no idea what to believe, so many just tune it all out.   That ends up costing lives when a truly exceptional event (worst-case) occurs, and it's made even worse b/c the exceptional events are greatest risk to lives.

I admit though this is an extremely complex social issue, among other things, and no easy way to figure out what works best.  One thing i will stand by solid though. "more [warnings/alerts} is not always better!"
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though 

Timing is ideal and HRRR/RRFS show decent cells/lines!  CBs in that kind of shear are likely going to do "something."

I put it this way, "to have such a deep sfc low move over srn Quebec w/ those kinds of warm sector wind fields in June?, prove it to me something big will not happen!"  We do not have set ups like this very often, so the full range of
what can happen we really don't know.  And this set up odd in itself b/c through the roof shear and low CAPE, but it not during the cool season!

One thing about EMLs.  700-500 *only* can be misleading.  Take a look at the IAD sounding 00z 6/14 I attached. 700-500 is crappy at 5.7 C/km, but compress that layer just a bit, and the max is 7.2 C/km...EML!  I needed to inform CoastalWx about this, and he learned something new today!  

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening.  

There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why. 

I would caution this does not always work well.  June 2, 1990 has a big tor outbreak in the Great Lakes/Midwest/OH Valley w/ IN getting absolutely crushed w/ 37 tor in the state (more than the 1974 Superoutbreak).  66 tor in this event w/ 7 F4s, and forecasts were big for NY/PA and New England for June 3, and a complete bust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1990_Lower_Ohio_Valley_tornado_outbreak

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, FXWX said:

We've seen this "too much of a good thing" before?  Crazy shear values shredding updrafts before they can mature and do any damage.   But certainly, an interesting setup with close monitoring needed for fast moving; low-level spin-ups???

Yes, this is a significant concern.  Too much shear and not enough instability.  You can get "cannonball CU" -- the building CU gets sliced by shear and you get part of the CU horizontally shooting downwind abruptly w/ a small cloud trail back to the other part of the CU!

However, this go/no go for any CB here "winning" or "loosing" is a fine line.  If any CB can get established (more upright instead of titled over 45 deg or more!), the mesocyclone should be intense, and then CAPE does not matter nearly as much.  It's why you can have as little 100-200 CAPE and get sig tors.  Most often this is in a TC situation, but it can happen in an ET low situation.

CB updrafts are maintained extremely well despite low CAPE due to dynamic pressure perturbations induced by the mesocyclones.  It also is why when an intense supercell moves into a stable (no CAPE) air mass, it can still produce tors for a little while longer b/c the intense mesocyclone present just doesn't go "poof!"

The ante Thursday here is high here either way.  It will definitely be a wicked nowcast situation watching storm development and evolving