Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Brewbeer]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Should I uninstall?  I figure if I was supposed to install in March or something, that woud make sense

still haven't installed, these past few nights have been gloriously cool and perfect for sleeping.  

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. 

One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS floods

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, step-by-step we are getting into summer now. Everyone rejoice!

Scott shying away from his winter weenie passion?

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. 

One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC.  Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed.  A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day! 

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC.  Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed.  A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day! 

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

[SouthCoastMA]

84° , which is hot for here. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

You mean "right-moving!" 

[Typhoon Tip]

has anyone else noticed an absence of mosquitos

[weatherwiz]

24 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You mean "right-moving!" 

ahhh right...the Oct 79 was left moving 

[Typhoon Tip]

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ahhh right...the Oct 79 was left moving 

Oct 1979 was an odd duck.  Not sure of the left movement as a factor.  Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics.  It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low.  This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984.  Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4!

Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the 10/3/1979 event.  It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell.  They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem.

The BDL tor did $250M in damages.  Adjusted for inflation, that would be $1.1B today.  That makes it the costliest tor in New England history.  At the time, the BDL F4 was the third costliest U.S. tor on record w/ the $400M at #1 from the SPS F4 in April that year and #2 Xenia OH F5 in April 1974.  ORH tor in 1953 adjusted for inflation would be $658M, but in the 1953, the $53M in damages was the costliest U.S. tor up to that time.

[vortex95]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

CoastalWx "mad" b/c the SLGT stops just short of Weymouth! LOL.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Oct 1979 was an odd duck.  Not sure of the left movement was a factor.  Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics.  It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low.  This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984.  Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4!

Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the event.  It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell.  They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem.

I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft. 

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft. 

Yes, the was some sun I bet in CT, but mostly cloudy overall in SNE.  I noted that day in Woburn it was breezy and a thick high OVC by early afternoon.  I went up to U Lowell to monitor the radar, and then noted the monster cell W of ALB.  My drive from Lowell to HFD was OVC the entire time.  Did not make it to HVN in time and I was just ahead of the MA tornadic supercell moving SE from Hubbardston, but I had no idea there was tornadic there (it formed rapidly after I left Lowell) b/c the VIS sucked! 

Even though in the HFD area missed the monster supercell, other cells hit the area, and one a drove though, I have never seen it get so dark approaching any storm in New England.  The LTG was not crazy, but did it pour!

[weatherwiz]

Just now, vortex95 said:

Yes, the was some sun I bet in CT, but mostly cloudy overall in SNE.  I noted that day in Woburn it was breezy and a thick high OVC by early afternoon.  I went up to U Lowell to monitor the radar, and then noted the monster cell W of ALB.  My drive from Lowell to HFD was OVC the entire time.  Did not make it to HVN in time and I was just ahead of the MA tornadic supercell moving SE from Hubbardston, but I had no idea there was tornadic there (it formed rapidly after I left Lowell) b/c the VIS sucked! 

Even though in the HFD area missed the monster supercell, other cells hit the area, and one a drove though, I have never seen it get so dark approaching any storm in New England.  The LTG was not crazy, but did it pour!

the post about the accounts of sun breaking out was about the 10/3/79 event...don't want to get that confused with the 7/10/89.

But its not uncommon for our EML days to begin with clouds and showers/thunderstorms moving through followed by quick clearing (hell, probably the case too in the midwest). I remember 5/31/98 was like this. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until like 9 or 10 AM (maybe a bit earlier) then off to the races with full sun 

[BrianW]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The whole tone and tenor of the board has changed now. Folks going from upset , complaining, angry to happy , with extra jump and pep in steps. Amazing how deep summer setting in changes and super charges everyone 

What a week coming up. I think we see 90+ Tuesday to Sunday at BDL.