Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Brewbeer]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Should I uninstall?  I figure if I was supposed to install in March or something, that woud make sense

still haven't installed, these past few nights have been gloriously cool and perfect for sleeping.  

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity. 

I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. 

One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS floods

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, step-by-step we are getting into summer now. Everyone rejoice!

Scott shying away from his winter weenie passion?

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. 

One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC.  Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed.  A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day! 

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC.  Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed.  A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day! 

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity.