May 2026

[steve392]

Spurts if heavy rain down here in Monmouth County. Rain looks to probably miss most of this area.  Sussex county getting a much needed soaking g. 

[psv88]

Got my son’s baseball game in just in time. Showers now and 0.16” so far. 

[bkviking]

Off and on rain but 3rd bout of heavy rain in past hour in Port Jefferson. Seems like a lit up red line on radar keeps training over my area. Gonna be some big totals from this..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I expect another baseline temperature jump this year. The amount of heat release in the pacific is going to be astronomical. The cpac hurricane and wpac typhoon seasons should be historic.


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Yeah, barring a major volcanic event happening really soon (like Pinatubo did in mid-June just before a robust el nino), I think most of us can agree that there will be another baseline temperature jump coming. 

[psv88]

Nice downpour. 0.86”

[psv88]

Overperformer out here. Up to 0.93” with more to come. Wasn’t expecting an inch plus 

[donsutherland1]

After some additional rain and showers tonight into early tomorrow, tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer under variably cloudy skies. Highs will likely top out in the middle 70s. Some additional showers and a thundershower are possible late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall.

Much of next week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary stalls near the region. Warmer air could arrive during the weekend.

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was +6.07 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[FPizz]

.11" bust. Sunny now

[guinness77]

Had a nice line run through while I was dropping the family off at the outlets in Deer Park. It was absolutely pouring for about 5 minutes on the way back to the house. Luckily, they got into the theater before it started. Beautiful early evening sun, might get a quick dog walk in. 

[psv88]

1.10” nice drink. Everything will stay nice and lush 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I expect another baseline temperature jump this year. The amount of heat release in the pacific is going to be astronomical. The cpac hurricane and wpac typhoon seasons should be historic.


.

We lose some aspect of the past climate with every baseline temperature jump. But we have to wait until after the event to see specifically what changes will occur.

The first one in 1997-1998 put a 1995-1996 snowy benchmark season out of reach for us. The same for the 1993-1994 record cold with benchmark snows in Central to Eastern PA.

It was also the beginning of the all or nothing snowfall pattern which lead to more seasons of 30”+ and 18” or lower. Leading to a significant decline in the 19” to 29” winters which were common place from the 1960s to early 1990s. So every snowy season featured it least one KU benchmark event. The absence of KU events has been a feature of the low snowfall winters. 

It took around 9 years after that event 1997-1998 event  for the warmth to make it to the Arctic leading to the big thickness drop and record lower range we have been in. Then a smaller jump in 2010 shifted the summer temperatures to a warmer base that we have been in.

Then the historic December 2015 +13 kicked off the era of significantly warmer winters. Places like DC to Philly haven’t seen close to the cold and benchmark snow of the 2009-2010 winter. Same for the Great Lakes not repeating the benchmark snow and very cold conditions of 2013-2014. Plus the Boston historic snows in 2014-2015.

Then the rapid warming of the WPAC east of a Japan following this event eventually leading to the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and decline in 2020s snowfall for us compared to the record snowy 2010s.

We did get a nice bounce back winter in 2025-2026 with the first benchmark KU since 2020-2021  and 2021-2022. Still uncertain how the winter storm tracks will respond following this event. 

The 2023-2024 jump is most recent with 2 of the warmest winters on record occurring for the CONUS in the last 3 years. Hard to say how long the severe drought pattern which developed across the U.S and Canada following this event will last. It will be interesting to see if this 2026-2027 event can shift the pattern to wetter at least temporarily or shift us back to drier again following the event. Very challenging to do multiyear precipitation forecasting.  

It took 18 years between 1998 to 2016 for that baseline jump to occur. Then only 8 years between 2016 and 2024. Now all the models are indicating the first time for a +2.1 or greater ONI El Niño only 3 years apart and baseline temperature jump. So for the entire planet we are moving into an unknown zone with such rapid warming occurring over shorter intervals of time.