May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[dendrite]

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Ineedsnow approved. 

In leominster and not much going on here.. looks like home is getting drenched though.. almost 2 inches the other day plus this.. things will green up quick now

[Typhoon Tip]

The heaviest rain this system ordeal has to offer may in fact come from this introductory band that Brian just showed there.

The whole system is closing off but that behavior is doing so over pallid gradients/weak baroclinicity, while the mid and upper heights are really filling as it closes ... not deepening further.  As it is pulling away, it even opens the trough back up and ends up almost washed out of the hemisphere by the next day as it's corps smears up over the Maritime.  [edit, it actually does go through another deepening phase up there but then right after it's disappears]

Systems tend to not score well in the course when they're limping into the final. 

The NAM's lower QPF all along may end up doing better in this.   The other models "might" be over producing QPF given weakening structure. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this.  It is still a closed circulation, tho maintaining a progressive movement ... but closed circulations may get a window of easterly anomaly which adds ... So both a lower and upper performance are true. 

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If only it was snow 

[dendrite]

Great day for GYX radar to be down. 

[dendrite]

In the more changes dept…mesowest is doneski at the end of the year (maybe sooner).

https://mesowest.utah.edu/notice.html

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Great day for GYX radar to be down. 

Had to make a tough call for a necessary 2 day outage. Bring her down for a widespread rain event where BOX could cover the most threatened area or bring her down in June when random thunderstorms could be too far away from other radars. 

By the way congrats on BOX being at least as good as GYX in the low levels for your area now that they dropped their lowest scan to 0.3 degrees.

[metagraphica]

Nothing but wet.    54 degrees.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Had to make a tough call for a necessary 2 day outage. Bring her down for a widespread rain event where BOX could cover the most threatened area or bring her down in June when random thunderstorms could be too far away from other radars. 

By the way congrats on BOX being at least as good as GYX in the low levels for your area now that they dropped their lowest scan to 0.3 degrees.

I figured there was a good reason. I was kinda kidding anyway…it’s mostly just a synoptic rain.

I didn’t even realize they lowered that. Is it permanent or while GYX is down?

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

I figured there was a good reason. I was kinda kidding anyway…it’s mostly just a synoptic rain.

I didn’t even realize they lowered that. Is it permanent or while GYX is down?

Permanent change. I haven't seen the updated best coverage of the lowest scan maps yet, but I think we're now looking at BOX being the better radar from near PSM to Sunapee. The biggest change is we gain like 2000 feet of viewing near EEN, and ENX is basically no longer necessary to look at. 

[SouthCoastMA]

61.3° and Cloudy

salvageable day so far

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Permanent change. I haven't seen the updated best coverage of the lowest scan maps yet, but I think we're now looking at BOX being the better radar from near PSM to Sunapee. The biggest change is we gain like 2000 feet of viewing near EEN, and ENX is basically no longer necessary to look at. 

Oh sick I had no clue either. That is awesome. 

That should even help reduce range folding issues in the CT Valley. Looks like the 0.3° tilt samples just below 5K in the Springfield area which is a good ~1.5k feet lower than what the 0.5° tilt samples. 

[dendrite]

49.9° +RA

1.01” since midnight 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow... impressive 6 hour change Saturday morning in this new NAM grid. 

Walking through a summer doorway

[Damage In Tolland]

Will any few stragglers remain uninstalled?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

.82 this morning .Hopefully that’s about it here. Plenty of rain the last two weeks .

We have entered that week of the year when the lawn is at its best . Just like staring at snowbanks. Could stare at this all day. It’s all downhill from here as the summer diseases and heat will slowly encroach despite our best efforts. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a gravy train for several hours near Kev and then another one near lunch time through even over far ern areas into SNH. Someone is getting 3-4” in the ern one…probably SNH.

Stein here 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Stein here 

Hopefully .2” there and 2” here

[dendrite]

50.2°

1.28” in the last 24hrs

[dendrite]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

.82 this morning .Hopefully that’s about it here. Plenty of rain the last two weeks .

We have entered that week of the year when the lawn is at its best . Just like staring at snowbanks. Could stare at this all day. It’s all downhill from here as the summer diseases and heat will slowly encroach despite our best efforts. 

You’re in the axis. More rain cometh. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd use MAV for Saturday.   METs not high enough for those synoptic params.    If you look at the 850s warming from 15 thru 21z in a pocket just E of over the water, that's actually mixed diurnal plume leaving the coast - which means the mix hgt actually made that level.  It's 10C, and the adiabtic extrapolation to 1000 mb is 22.5 ...so the mandatory 2 to 3 slope addition to the real sfc yields closer to 25 C ( 77), which is what the MAV sports. 

That could also be a deg shy, too

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd use MAV for Saturday.   METs not high enough for those synoptic params.    If you look at the 850s warming from 15 thru 21z in a pocket just E of over the water, that's actually mixed diurnal plume leaving the coast - which means the mix hgt actually made that level.  It's 10C, and the adiabtic extrapolation to 1000 mb is 22.5 ...so the mandatory 2 to 3 slope addition to the real sfc yields closer to 25 C ( 77), which is what the MAV sports. 

That could also be a deg shy, too

Only caveat may be we’re going to sobbing wet up here with standing puddles. It may be difficult to get good surface warming in rural areas…especially where 2”+ rain falls. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, entertaining low grade heat wave Mon-Wed.   89-92 variety...  close.  Subtle yet crucially amplifying ridge heights are situated nicely for deep layer heat transport in recent multi-source guidance.  It could tick more pronounced yet, too.   Also, no BD or N-door frontal sag until perhaps too late on Wed to matter.  Meanwhile, 850s are steadily improving from 10 all the way to 16c thru the weekend prior, and the general cloud RH fields are < 60% so sun soaking after elevating successive launch temperatures.  Not big heat by very warm.  Civility taken off guard a little...despite technical above average April it really has not sensibly appealed that way.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’re in the axis. More rain cometh. 

Maybe but the heaviest is and will be East . Just light stuff left 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only caveat may be we’re going to sobbing wet up here with standing puddles. It may be difficult to get good surface warming in rural areas…especially where 2”+ rain falls. 

that's a good point.   Didn't consider that.  

I tell you what ...I bet now that we're in the solar max we may still do better.  I'll let it ride and take the hit if I'm wrong. I'm still thinking 77's doable but yeah.  Part of my thinking is that we're facing a pretty significant built in correction vector, one with an explosively long room, too.   

As an aside, this really is an impressive wholesale change coming after tomorrow

Just sayn', 2-m in NAM's 69 at ORH and 71 BED at 18z.  That's garbage under near full sun and superb wind direction during a summer mixing profile.  BL is gonna get tall.   We all know FIT/ASH/BED are 6 F warmer than ORH in that setting.   Granted MET MOS is 75 so ... it's a nerd's quibble.

[CoastalWx]

Mild approaching the mid 60s and dews

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully .2” there and 2” here

All I’ve been hearing about is this big Rainer Thursday and it looks like a massive bust here, either way.