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May 2026 Obs/Discussion

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Unfortunately, the prospects for any sustained temperatures above the seasonal average is quite low as we move into the month of May and we may even have to wait fairly deep into May to flip the script. Unseasonably strong late season blocking continues to be a dominant mode within the Arctic domain and Greenland resulting in troughniess and below average heights dominating from the northern Inter-mountain West region across the northern Plains, upper-Midwest, and Northeast. There are some hints on the GFS/Euro we could see this pattern breakdown a bit moving towards mid-May, however, it is very possible that is a bit too optimistic and it is just the weighting of climo towards the end of the run making it appear the pattern will breakdown. 

Hopefully towards the back end of the month we can introduce some heat, humidity, and severe weather chances. While May is the beginning of severe weather season, that doesn't mean we get flooded with threats right away. Just like how June 1 is the official beginning to the Atlantic hurricane season...we aren't flooded with hurricanes on June 2. Patience, patience, patience. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

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Last call for any final season snowfall reports for SNE (if you didn't already msg me). I'll have all the final season snowfall maps out this week. If i don't hear from you ill do my best to add the 3 minor events from Mar 3-4, Mar 5-6 and Apr 7 to this map. The numbers on this map were ending on March 2nd (except the climate sites which i already changed).

05_01.26_jdj_v3_sne_hi_res_seasonal_snowfall.thumb.jpg.1587737495f48d95514d9b12b9ffe191.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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On 4/27/2026 at 8:33 AM, weatherwiz said:

Unfortunately, the prospects for any sustained temperatures above the seasonal average is quite low as we move into the month of May and we may even have to wait fairly deep into May to flip the script. Unseasonably strong late season blocking continues to be a dominant mode within the Arctic domain and Greenland resulting in troughniess and below average heights dominating from the northern Inter-mountain West region across the northern Plains, upper-Midwest, and Northeast. There are some hints on the GFS/Euro we could see this pattern breakdown a bit moving towards mid-May, however, it is very possible that is a bit too optimistic and it is just the weighting of climo towards the end of the run making it appear the pattern will breakdown. 

Hopefully towards the back end of the month we can introduce some heat, humidity, and severe weather chances. While May is the beginning of severe weather season, that doesn't mean we get flooded with threats right away. Just like how June 1 is the official beginning to the Atlantic hurricane season...we aren't flooded with hurricanes on June 2. Patience, patience, patience. 

10th-14th is a transition period suggested by the numerical trajectories ...albeit recently emergent.  However, it was at least vaguely hinted starting 5 or so days back. As of a last night's computation from all three major source, GEFs, EPS, GEPs, there's movement toward a neutral EPO, -PNA state.  That's basically shutting down BN.  Adding to that presumption, the AO and NAO are flat-lined, perhaps seasonally too. 

That tells me that the op. Euro's extended warm surge into the latitudes of the lower Lakes ( huge swarm outbreak in the Euro 300 hours btw -), with 80s to southern Ontario may not be dependable per se, but at least the principle of a bigger flip is well founded.   We'll see where it goes.  Personally lean to this having legs tho.

That's the broad orbital perspective.  

At a bit more of a discrete level, ...Tuesday and Wednesday next week are precariously close to going excessively above normal.  A typical result in this latter leg of CC; when the environment "allows" a warm departure, the result is disproportionately warmer than normal compared to when the environment is pushing cool departures.   Scott and I have an ongoing interesting observation about this...  if you look at just about any month's climate records since last autumn when this cold hemispheric look became dominate, despite that being the case those months will host something like 3 or 4 days stretches with +15 to +20, separated by 10 or so days of -3.  So that month ends up either near normal or even decimals above normal, while having successfully cheated everyone that enjoys warmth from being able to subjectively feel like that was ever the case. HAHA.   Seriously though... it's a total liar journey for months now.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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On 4/28/2026 at 11:36 AM, Torch Tiger said:

May looks to start near normal temps. Acatt reeling after last weeks hopes and even outright (reckless) calls for two weeks of rhea

Today's a sneaky mild naper.  In fact, with May sun potency now lasing the land and man, might even subjectively argue it gets warm out there mid afternoon for an hour or two.   (altho hold on.  One caveat:  not sure if we pancake destruct this, which would cap temp rise....)

Sunday morning?   there may be wet snow falling around the top and tuck towns of the Worcester Hills.  That sure is fuck won't be normal - it would objectively be well below normal actually... 

However,  (today's sneak warm) + ( Sunday morning cold butt pump)/2 = typical bullshit godless NE spring climate by average so yeah...I guess that argues near normal in the aggregate <_<

It's a matter of magnitude.   Does the cold anomaly on Sunday out weigh today's warmth?   It might be a fun 4 min comparison on Tuesday morning for nerds that like to crunch those numbers.  

Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be close to bigger warmth.  It's going to depend on whether the warm boundary that is more and less defined among the models, ...actually gets through here.  Climo says it doesn't and gets shunted some how, some way.  Even when there is no physics to shunt, Earth seemingly comes up with it's one physics ( like interdimensional weather) in order to get what it wants:  pumping NE bum.    Seriously though, if we can get S of the perceived boundary, we surge from Sunday local era nadir to AN for those two days.  That'll prooobably seal the first 7-day's worth of the month as +

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