Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wierd.. why would the NAO be negative all of a sudden? It hasn't been negative in 14 years, and this is the ripe +year time after Solar Max and strong +QBO.. not saying it's impossible but I think they are displacing the El Nino N. American ridge.

All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the seasonal are going it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.

[George001]

On 9/18/2026 at 11:47 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. 

Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events. 

[forkyfork]

On 9/20/2026 at 11:23 AM, forkyfork said:

yeah, i had a few below average days in winter 1998

you are all free to tell me why this isn't likely to be a warmer version of 1998

[roardog]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why this isn't likely to be a warmer version of 1998

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy. 

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, roardog said:

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy. 

this is a stronger and even more east based event than 1998 and we have 30 years of warming on top of our base state

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events. 

Yes I am looking forward to that. Ninas arent always perfect, but they usually bring a good winter here.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, roardog said:

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy. 

While milder than avg winter is a given (2 colder than avg winters followed by a strong El Nino, no way its not), snowfall and precip remains the wildcard. If I am not mistaken, your area got a lot of snow in 2015-16. That was a crazy year where snowfall ranged from slightly below avg in Detroit to slightly above in the northern burbs to well above in Flint. My first guess for Detroit for 2026-27 is 33". Im taking the middle ground of strong Nino snowfall and will adjust if anything becomes more clear once winter begins.

EDIT- I thought this was the main thread, then realized it was the New England one lol. The wet signal in the east is crazy. Makes you think that well inland will really pile up the snow numbers by April even if there are a lot of mix events and not the best snowcover.

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

While milder than avg winter is a given (2 colder than avg winters followed by a strong El Nino, no way its not), snowfall and precip remains the wildcard. If I am not mistaken, your area got a lot of snow in 2015-16. That was a crazy year where snowfall ranged from slightly below avg in Detroit to slightly above in the northern burbs to well above in Flint. My first guess for Detroit for 2026-27 is 33". Im taking the middle ground of strong Nino snowfall and will adjust if anything becomes more clear once winter begins.

Yeah we had some big 32 degree snowstorms in 2015-2016. I know we’re in an east coast thread right now so even if the mean temp ends up higher than 97-98, it doesn’t mean the east coast can’t get a massive event with just enough cold air if the timing is right. This is what I mean by saying you can’t just look at 97-98 and say it’s going to be a duplicate winter and expect little to snow on the east coast because of it. Like I said, the atmosphere isn’t that simple.

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah we had some big 32 degree snowstorms in 2015-2016. I know we’re in an east coast thread right now so even if the mean temp ends up higher than 97-98, it doesn’t mean the east coast can’t get a massive event with just enough cold air if the timing is right. This is what I mean by saying you can’t just look at 97-98 and say it’s going to be a duplicate winter and expect little to snow on the east coast because of it. Like I said, the atmosphere isn’t that simple.

I thought so. Definitely some scenic snows in 2015-16. And thats exactly right about the atmosphere. If we have to explain that no two years are the same or follow some linear correlation, then we really are starting at square 1. The funny thing is, 1997-98 was actually unusual in that Feb was the warm month, not December. A bit of an odd duck from strong Ninos. Right off the bat I doubt that happens this year. 1997-98 wasnt even that bad Nov-Jan, then went totally flat in Feb. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is a stronger and even more east based event than 1998 and we have 30 years of warming on top of our base state

Don't forget the fact that the solar cycle and QBO are also more hostile. In the interest of being truly exhaustive, I think you also need to consider the ramifications of that 30 years of warming on the Pacific basin, as it's been biasing convective forcing westward relative to expectations derived from traditional diagnosis, such as max ENSO SST anomaly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why this isn't likely to be a warmer version of 1998

It absolutely will....but I think it could also be snowier, and in fact it likely will be.

[alex]

On 9/17/2026 at 9:11 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Sorry, guys. 


 

 

 

I’d take that

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It absolutely will....but I think it could also be snowier, and in fact it likely will be.

You sold on actual surface temps being warmer than 1997-98? 

As I mentioned earlier 1997-98 is definitely the odd duck for strong ninos in that Feb was the warmest rather than coldest month. 

[ORH_wxman]

'97-'98 wasn't a horrific winter over interior SNE (ORH had 54.7")....Dec/Jan was actually above avg for snow....it was a horrific February that was the killer....which is ironic in an El Nino. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

'97-'98 wasn't a horrific winter over interior SNE (ORH had 54.7")....Dec/Jan was actually above avg for snow....it was a horrific February that was the killer....which is ironic in an El Nino. 

How was that winter in NNE? 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How was that winter in NNE? 

BTV about 94" and SLK about 133". Of course, the Jan 1998 devastating ice storm was mixed in too that doesn't show up on the snow totals. The snow was crappier further east in NNE. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BTV about 94" and SLK about 133". Of course, the Jan 1998 devastating ice storm was mixed in too that doesn't show up on the snow totals. The snow was crappier further east in NNE. 

I completely forgot about the ice storm. All I knew then was tropical. We average somewhere between 100-125 at SLK so being above that is interesting. For 2015-16 winter was a disaster. 

[WxWatcher007]

Went down the rabbit hole and found December 1989 and December 2015. Holy crap.  

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

'97-'98 wasn't a horrific winter over interior SNE (ORH had 54.7")....Dec/Jan was actually above avg for snow....it was a horrific February that was the killer....which is ironic in an El Nino. 

How much did ORH have in the 12/23/97 weenie storm? 16"?