Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[WxWatcher007]

 

 

 

And 500mb

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Absolute ass

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolute assey

It may be hard to get too many inside runners with that look, though....IF THE MODEL IS RIGHT...pretty big time -NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

 

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain.

That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

 

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all? 

Doesn't appear as though it will have a major impact:

To see how Anak Krakatau's potential output stacks up against historical climate-altering eruptions, see the table below:

 

Volcano / Eruption Event	Approximate \(SO_{2}\) Mass Released	Global Climate Impact
1991 Mount Pinatubo	~20,000,000 tons	Decreased global temperatures by 0.5 °C for 2 years
1883 Krakatau Eruption	~20,000,000 tons of Sulfur	Decreased global temperatures by 1.2 °C
2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai	~400,000 tons	Minimal cooling (dominated by historic water vapor injection)
2018 Anak Krakatau Eruption	~173,000 tons	Localized atmospheric/weather effects only
Typical Anak Krakatau Daily Output	~190 tons/day	No measurable climate impact

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't appear as though it will have a major impact:

 

To see how Anak Krakatau's potential output stacks up against historical climate-altering eruptions, see the table below:

 

Volcano / Eruption Event	Approximate \(SO_{2}\) Mass Released	Global Climate Impact
1991 Mount Pinatubo	~20,000,000 tons	Decreased global temperatures by 0.5 °C for 2 years
1883 Krakatau Eruption	~20,000,000 tons of Sulfur	Decreased global temperatures by 1.2 °C
2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai	~400,000 tons	Minimal cooling (dominated by historic water vapor injection)
2018 Anak Krakatau Eruption	~173,000 tons	Localized atmospheric/weather effects only
Typical Anak Krakatau Daily Output	~190 tons/day	No measurable climate impact

this table says 2018? In any case, I saw a report that concluded Anak Krakatau's recent eruption plume went only 13% the height of Pinatubo, so likely talking about a substantially smaller impact if that figure is correct. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

this table says 2018? In any case, I saw a report that concluded Anak Krakatau's recent eruption plume went only 13% the height of Pinatubo, so likely talking about a substantially smaller impact if that figure is correct. 

No, the last column...2018 is a different eruption.

[Cobalt]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the last column...2018 is a different eruption.

Unless im misreading, that row's title says "typical Anak Krakatau Output", as in likely just averaging out its emissions over time. Doesn't look like there's estimated figures on 2026's eruption just yet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Unless im misreading, that row's title says "typical Anak Krakatau Output", as in likely just averaging out its emissions over time. Doesn't look like there's estimated figures on 2026's eruption just yet 

My bad, you're right. It seems like it was an eruption of moderate magnitude at best, though. I wouldn't anticipate major impacts. This is what I based that assumption on, which I should have pasted in addition to that chart for added context.

How its Current Scale and Potential Rankings Compare

• Compared to its History: The current eruption has blasted an ash column 15 kilometers (50,000 feet) high into the atmosphere. This height mirrors the paroxysmal 2018 Anak Krakatau eruption, which ultimately released roughly 173,000 metric tons (173 kt) of \(SO_{2}\). If the 2026 eruption sustains this intensity, it could reach similar levels. [1, 2, 3]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems like this is similar to the 2018 eruption, which had a pretty trivial impact.