Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Hopefully everyone takes advantage of the nice weather this weekend and installs. 

 

where are they getting "soggy" for on Sunday?

[SouthCoastMA]

Models suggest lower heights / cutoff low after next weekend around Newfoundland, with blocking near Greenland evident. Would kinda suck in eastern areas if thats true. Still plenty of time for that to change, and until then we enjoy the next 10 days. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Models suggest lower heights / cutoff low after next weekend around Newfoundland, with blocking near Greenland evident. Would kinda suck in eastern areas if thats true. Still plenty of time for that to change, and until then we enjoy the next 10 days. 

Signs late April into early May might not be terribly warm in New England. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below.  I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the whole world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm.  Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... 

Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way?  I recall seeing March colder than the whole country - in fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly".  What we experience was a warm anomaly, but just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify.  hmm  'Sides,   I've been quite right about every other month since October...so, meh.  That's a decent grade in anticipating these temperature layouts, nonetheless.   Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a veritable quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too.

Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

[HoarfrostHubb]

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

where are they getting "soggy" for on Sunday?

GFS maybe?  a few showers around on that

 

[weatherwiz]

Not a bad day today. At least it will be nice going into Hartford to see the shitty Wolf Pack play. Only reason I was going to go tonight was see Hagens play. Now I'm going to be stuck watching the awful Wolf Pack. 

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below.  I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the whole world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm.  Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... 

Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way?  I recall seeing March colder than the whole country - in fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly".  What we experience was a warm anomaly, but just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify.  hmm  'Sides,   I've been quite right about every other month since October...so, meh.  That's a decent grade in anticipating these temperature layouts, nonetheless.   Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too.

Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Versus 1951 to 2020 who picked these random years

[weatherwiz]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS maybe?  a few showers around on that

 

Still looks like we're largely under the influence of high pressure on Sunday though...looks pretty dry. We increase mid-level moisture/clouds through the day. Perhaps some showers late in the day or moreso overnight but I hear soggy and I think rain most of the day

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Not a bad day today. At least it will be nice going into Hartford to see the shitty Wolf Pack play. Only reason I was going to go tonight was see Hagens play. Now I'm going to be stuck watching the awful Wolf Pack. 

Today may challenge the diurnal recovery record in the unofficial nerdy Asperger contest... 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Today may challenge the diurnal recovery record in the unofficial nerdy Asperger contest... 

 

These days I think are extremely underrated from a scientific aspect. There is something about watching the temps just absolutely sky rocket once mixing gets cranking. It's even more fun when you're in the sun because you can feel the science doing its thing. Love it

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Versus 1951 to 2020 who picked these random years

was going to try and create a composite comparing March to 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020 climo but March 2026 not available yet on the reanalysis page. Also just found out that NCEP/NCAR R1 is being discontinued

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

was going to try and create a composite comparing March to 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020 climo but March 2026 not available yet on the reanalysis page. Also just found out that NCEP/NCAR R1 is being discontinued

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

was going to try and create a composite comparing March to 1971-2000, 1981-2010, and 1991-2020 climo but March 2026 not available yet on the reanalysis page. Also just found out that NCEP/NCAR R1 is being discontinued

Yeah, that was announced awhile ago, but it looks like a new solution is being offered.  Unsure if that is the entire motive/reason for making the move, but they announced this a month or so ago

"...Central Operations has announced that the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be discontinued in favor of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis (CORe) ..."

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

what site can you pull that from? Are you able to choose our own climatology periods or does it provide a list?

I've used this

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

You can create your own climatology period by subtracting from dataset two and using the years to subtract. I really like this because say I wanted to look at 1974...it's nice to see how 1974 compared to the 1941-1970 climo instead of just to the current climo (and even better because you can do both and see where the greatest changes have occurred)

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, that was announced awhile ago, but it looks like a new solution is being offered.  Unsure if that is the entire motive/reason for making the move, but they announced this a month or so ago

"...Central Operations has announced that the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be discontinued in favor of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis (CORe) ..."

Wow, I totally missed that. I'll have to read some more into it. I wonder if this CORe is just a more improved dataset?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wow, I totally missed that. I'll have to read some more into it. I wonder if this CORe is just a more improved dataset?

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Thanks!! I feel like I had this site bookmarked at one point but probably lost it when something happened with my bookmarks. Curious if they will roll over to ERSSTv6 at some point

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wow, I totally missed that. I'll have to read some more into it. I wonder if this CORe is just a more improved dataset?

I haven't looked into it.  

I don't really do a lot reanalysis -related look ups.  

I've been posting the GIS sfc temperature anomaly product from NASA on or around the 10th for the past several months, just for the muse of the fact that we enjoyed what most perceive ...even if not objectively so, a cold snowy winter, yet that was the exception to the vaster rule.  

It's been an interesting observational journey. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Thanks!! I feel like I had this site bookmarked at one point but probably lost it when something happened with my bookmarks. Curious if they will roll over to ERSSTv6 at some point

Dude, I put that same link      in my post!

people just glance over these posts...  miss stuff.  But definitely knee jerk react.  

I tell ya, social media engagement is a privilege that about 96% of the population may not be very well suited for

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I haven't looked into it.  

I don't really do a lot reanalysis -related look ups.  

I've been posting the GIS sfc temperature anomaly product from NASA on or around the 10th for the past several months, just for the muse of the fact that we enjoyed what most perceive ...even if not objectively so, a cold snowy winter, yet that was the exception to the vaster rule.  

It's been an interesting observational journey. 

I remember reading your post with your thoughts on the March map. I would have shared your thoughts...but pretty interesting to see.

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude, I put that same link      in my post!

whoops, I read past it  I saw it just after Steve posted the link

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thanks!! I feel like I had this site bookmarked at one point but probably lost it when something happened with my bookmarks. Curious if they will roll over to ERSSTv6 at some point

Notice when you combine land and sea anomalies and use a 1995 to 2025 climo base Tips anomaly for March drops from .9 to .04. Data use is important but data can be sometimes not used correctly 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thanks!! I feel like I had this site bookmarked at one point but probably lost it when something happened with my bookmarks. Curious if they will roll over to ERSSTv6 at some point

They have v6 and v7 options 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Notice when you combine land and sea anomalies and use a 1995 to 2025 climo base Tips anomaly for March drops from .9 to .04. Data use is important but data can be sometimes not used correctly 

I did not use it incorrectly.

Those are the straight up global anomalies, using an expanded data set because in scientific principle, denser sample sizes are better - when also stretched out over the longer term, exposes trends that have more confidence.

UNLIKE what you are providing in your poorly thought out rebuke, using scanter sizes. 

[CoastalWx]

2007-2016? 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Notice when you combine land and sea anomalies and use a 1995 to 2025 climo base Tips anomaly for March drops from .9 to .04. Data use is important but data can be sometimes not used correctly 

I don't think he was using anything incorrectly but you do do bring up a good point about data use. (The rest of this statement is speaking in generalized terms, not directed towards anyone here).

Data use can be extremely fickle and sensitive, particularly when using reanalysis data. It's always important that 

1) The user has a strong understanding of the strengths/weaknesses of the dataset and 

2) If the user is presenting writing a paper, the user clearly state these strengths/weaknesses.

There was a paper I was reading late last fall which was looking at the different versions of the ERSST dataset and I think comparing v6 versus v5 and a few previous versions and certain areas of the globe where there were noticeable discrepancies. And these discrepancies also had an impact on OLR anomalies and so forth. So its always important to understand strengths, weaknesses, limitations, etc. when dealing with datasets. I've really learned this the hard way doing so much with datasets and reanalysis from years as far back as 1900  

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Same.. I was constantly outside when I was a kid and never got one.. now it seems everytime I hike and go in the woods I get them.

Growing up in NNJ I saw exactly one tick, probably in 1971, definitely a dog tick.  Began seeing dog ticks in Maine mid-1990s; one western Maine excursion (Lovell, Denmark) in June 1996 I picked 24 off my clothes/skin and brushed a dozen-plus from the pants - 100% dog ticks.  Deer ticks began appearing about 10 years later, and my personal "best" is 26 on a state lot near Merrymeeting Bay in Topsham, late October 2019, 100% deer ticks.  I was flipping ticks out the window onto I-295 going back to AUG, found the final 3 (tiny nymphs) at home that evening.

Haven't seen any yet this year but will likely bag a couple the next time I walk thru our woodlot.  I pick them up mostly May-June and Oct-Nov.  For reasons unknown to me, the horrible little beasts seem to disappear in late summer here.  In mid-August of 2019, our annual two-day peer-review field trip had 40+ attendees visiting Newcastle, Swan Island (huge deer herd there), Hebron and Skowhegan.  Not a single tick was reported.

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Notice when you combine land and sea anomalies and use a 1995 to 2025 climo base Tips anomaly for March drops from .9 to .04. Data use is important but data can be sometimes not used correctly 

Why would that be better than going from 1950 onward like Tip’s original post?

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why would that be better than going from 1950 onward like Tip’s original post?

It wouldn't 

[weatherwiz]

I don't think there is anything wrong with using a shorter period or using a longer period, but like I stated the user and readers just need to be aware and any conclusions being drawn need to factor this in. Quite a bit of information can be gained using both. Comparing to a shorter period and a longer period, you are more likely to see areas of higher anomalous values and when compared to the longer mean, you can get a sense of where "change" may be occurring more rapidly. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It wouldn't 

Maybe I'm being dense and he was being sarcastic... but I'd think you'd want to see a longer period of record to compare to.  But if 1950 onward are random dates and then change it to a not random 1995-2025, maybe I'm just missing something.

I always thought we liked long period of records on here.