Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, that was a good light show to myself. That Providence to Marshfield on south corridor got nailed. Hrrr makes it again. Big MUCAPE spike.

Strobe lighting on the privates?

[dendrite]

With that modeled airmass early next week I’m not too upset about the warmth getting fudged up a bit this week. I don’t need fruit trees breaking bud.

The forsythia flower buds are just starting to swell. 

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man next week is gonna suck.

As opposed to this? 

I'll take it

Blue lines don't matter as much this time of year with that 1E to 36th power fusion bomb in the sky.

What could make it worse is if that -NAO is real and pins a rhea wheel here

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With that modeled airmass early next week I’m not too upset about the warmth getting fudged up a bit this week. I don’t need fruit trees breaking bud.

The forsythia flower buds are just starting to swell. 

What kind of damage will there be where the warmth didn’t get fudged?

[Typhoon Tip]

The warmth getting gypped is down right unfair.  

Next week's -NAO is a natural progression down wind and time of warm period in late winter and early spring.   We're definitely getting that hangover but the shit unfairness is that we're not getting much of a party of this warm up, first. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What kind of damage will there be where the warmth didn’t get fudged?

Are there apples, peaches, or pears nearing bloom down there yet? Otherwise probably not much damage. Our natives can handle these swings in April. But my pawpaws can get cambium damage sometimes even if they haven’t broken bud if it’s cold enough and the sap is starting to flow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not an early foliage year around here in general fwiw. 

Just got lawn/field greening these last 4 days,  along with daffodils and violates.  Forsythias are out in full, and the Lilac buds splt with infant bouquets and tiny leaves but that's a long way to go.  Otherwise, large stems are still post apocalyptic

[jbenedet]

It’s a significant -NAO in late April which will yield AN in a chunk of our subforum. 
 

The guidance is still catching on to the phase shift. You can see it coming into focus on the ECAIFS.  Pull it forward.
 

MJO Phase 1 has highest correlation and significance for AN this time of year. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

49/BR inside the rectum of a poorly analyzed BD.   

gorgeous !

Zero air movement tho, so the mechanics of this are weak.  It could be overcome but the sun has to be strong

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.

You’re crazy, what we had was awesome.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As opposed to this? 

I'll take it

Blue lines don't matter as much this time of year with that 1E to 36th power fusion bomb in the sky.

What could make it worse is if that -NAO is real and pins a rhea wheel here

It will improve today. Also, it’s possible the flow gets more northeast and we get a coastal too in this pattern next week. So overall it’s kind of meh to me. I will say foliage around here is definitely ahead of schedule.

[Brian5671]

already 72 here

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a significant -NAO in late April which will yield AN in a chunk of our subforum. 
 

The guidance is still catching on to the phase shift. You can see it coming into focus on the ECAIFS.  Pull it forward.
 

MJO Phase 1 has highest correlation and significance for AN this time of year. 
 

Good luck with that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re crazy, what we had was awesome.

Not sure which I enjoy more, the liberation from mother nature's infernal oven courtesy of the Atlantic's salty life raft, or @Typhoon Tipcolorful rectal analogies....it's close.

[weatherwiz]

wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado today anywhere from central VT through central NH

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Good luck with that 

That Guy is always coming out with stuff that is far fetched…whatever something(a forecast) looks like out at 3-5 days, he’s on the opposite side of just about every time.  

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will improve today. Also, it’s possible the flow gets more northeast and we get a coastal too in this pattern next week. So overall it’s kind of meh to me. I will say foliage around here is definitely ahead of schedule.

Yeah  ..I get it.  Generally pissy mood this morning.

The scrotum arc typical to morning satellite the morning after BDs is already starting to retreat from the W and S, shrinkage - haha.  We'll probably bust out at 11 and see a temp jump with wind going SW.  

 

[WinterWolf]

10 hours ago, Hailstoned said:

We're not getting the refreshing cold frontal passages, as used to be summer breaks from heat/humidity for a few days. And with fewer of these frontal refreshers seems also fewer thunderstorms/severe weather episodes punctuating their passage.

In August of 2024 we had one that lasted 3 months…from mid August to mid November. Guess you forgot about that one.  Didn’t rain for 3 months. And you couldn’t buy any dews or humidity for 3 solid months. Dry as dry could be. Everyday sunny, dry and gorgeous, with temps in the mid 70’s from mid August, through mid September…pretty impressive. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That air mass arrived yesterday afternoon into E-NE zones, and it then got rained into overnight.  That left a saturated cold slab that probably only 1000 ft elevation but is harder to mix out because it take more solar energy/thermal input to do it.  

[Hailstoned]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

In August of 2024 we had one that lasted 3 months…from mid August to mid November. Guess you forgot about that one.  Didn’t rain for 3 months. And you couldn’t buy any dews or humidity for 3 solid months. Dry as dry could be. Everyday sunny, dry and gorgeous, with temps in the mid 70’s from mid August, through mid September…pretty impressive. 

But not referring to stasis/stagnation which results in drought conditions, but rather to frequent changes of air mass (frontal passages).

[WinterWolf]

75 with 

1 minute ago, Hailstoned said:

But not referring to stasis/stagnation which results in drought conditions, but rather to frequent changes of air mass (frontal passages).

Fair enough.  But we get them, and as usual it varies. Some years more. Some years less.  
 

Kind of like the clippers were gone, and extinct…and then this year they were everywhere..constantly.  All the years we couldn’t buy one, we made up for it this winter, and then some.  

[WinterWolf]

76 and sunny…off to the races. We enjoy, for next week as Scott says is gonna be lousy. 

[dendrite]

Caved and put the stove on.

51.9°

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, dendrite said:

Caved and put the stove on.

51.9°

Satellite isn't exactly arguing you're going to get a better day out of this shit roll

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Caved and put the stove on.

51.9°

Wow Brian….dam that sucks for you guys there. Pushing 80 already here. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Satellite isn't exactly arguing you're going to get a better day out of this shit roll

I’m sure we’ll start getting occasional breaks around 4p and clear out by 6p. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m sure we’ll start getting occasional breaks around 4p and clear out by 6p. 

Yup! 

[dendrite]

[Typhoon Tip]

nice to see that...we'll see how it works out.  There's quite a bit of clearing sweeping up across the area at mid and u/a levels according to high res vis loop this hour.  As that expands over this sludge it will be interesting to see how the mid April sun goes to war over top. 

The day glow is also already elevating over the last 10 min here so my est for 11 am might not be so bad.