Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, that was a good light show to myself. That Providence to Marshfield on south corridor got nailed. Hrrr makes it again. Big MUCAPE spike.

Strobe lighting on the privates?

[dendrite]

With that modeled airmass early next week I’m not too upset about the warmth getting fudged up a bit this week. I don’t need fruit trees breaking bud.

The forsythia flower buds are just starting to swell. 

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man next week is gonna suck.

As opposed to this? 

I'll take it

Blue lines don't matter as much this time of year with that 1E to 36th power fusion bomb in the sky.

What could make it worse is if that -NAO is real and pins a rhea wheel here

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With that modeled airmass early next week I’m not too upset about the warmth getting fudged up a bit this week. I don’t need fruit trees breaking bud.

The forsythia flower buds are just starting to swell. 

What kind of damage will there be where the warmth didn’t get fudged?

[Typhoon Tip]

The warmth getting gypped is down right unfair.  

Next week's -NAO is a natural progression down wind and time of warm period in late winter and early spring.   We're definitely getting that hangover but the shit unfairness is that we're not getting much of a party of this warm up, first. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What kind of damage will there be where the warmth didn’t get fudged?

Are there apples, peaches, or pears nearing bloom down there yet? Otherwise probably not much damage. Our natives can handle these swings in April. But my pawpaws can get cambium damage sometimes even if they haven’t broken bud if it’s cold enough and the sap is starting to flow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not an early foliage year around here in general fwiw. 

Just got lawn/field greening these last 4 days,  along with daffodils and violates.  Forsythias are out in full, and the Lilac buds splt with infant bouquets and tiny leaves but that's a long way to go.  Otherwise, large stems are still post apocalyptic

[jbenedet]

It’s a significant -NAO in late April which will yield AN in a chunk of our subforum. 
 

The guidance is still catching on to the phase shift. You can see it coming into focus on the ECAIFS.  Pull it forward.
 

MJO Phase 1 has highest correlation and significance for AN this time of year. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

49/BR inside the rectum of a poorly analyzed BD.   

gorgeous !

Zero air movement tho, so the mechanics of this are weak.  It could be overcome but the sun has to be strong

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.

You’re crazy, what we had was awesome.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As opposed to this? 

I'll take it

Blue lines don't matter as much this time of year with that 1E to 36th power fusion bomb in the sky.

What could make it worse is if that -NAO is real and pins a rhea wheel here

It will improve today. Also, it’s possible the flow gets more northeast and we get a coastal too in this pattern next week. So overall it’s kind of meh to me. I will say foliage around here is definitely ahead of schedule.

[Brian5671]

already 72 here

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a significant -NAO in late April which will yield AN in a chunk of our subforum. 
 

The guidance is still catching on to the phase shift. You can see it coming into focus on the ECAIFS.  Pull it forward.
 

MJO Phase 1 has highest correlation and significance for AN this time of year. 
 

Good luck with that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re crazy, what we had was awesome.

Not sure which I enjoy more, the liberation from mother nature's infernal oven courtesy of the Atlantic's salty life raft, or @Typhoon Tipcolorful rectal analogies....it's close.