Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t forget urine evaporating off the pavement. 

[Typhoon Tip]

No warmth on the Euro N of the Pike and ... heh, fronts seldom stall there, so may as well drill it to Morristown NJ... 

BD Tuesday relays to a cold front/CAA --> cycles all over again out to 300 hours, ending in an April snow storm.   

Have a nice day

[CoastalWx]

Nam cancels Wednesday pike north too

[CoastalWx]

Leaf out at DAW ftl.

[Typhoon Tip]

Weird to see the Euro 60 hours ( 00z ) be so differently designed than the GFS.  

I did notice that the last 6 consecutive cycles of the the guidance have en mass/average been raising heights a tick or two...Now 582 dm over Logan ..versus 573 for this mid week's period from just a day or so ago.  

The Euro appears to be conceding to that with a frontal wave in NNE and Wed am warm sector ...front comes thru noon-ish but weak backside CAA in intense April sun, d-slope under lingering 850s in the +6 or 7 range... that's a decidedly different implication than the GFS.   The Euro might actually be a better fit for that tendency to raise heights with the ridging/582.  

I guess in the strict Meteorological techy shit it's not that hugely different, but the sensible weather implication is really where the differences lie - and "lie" may be the best fit. Ha.  Verbatim, this GFS (right) is orange lightning slow growl rumbler rains with chilly air undercutting into NE zones.  Wet where mild so capped temperatures SW and basically ... blegh.  The Euro on the other hand is probably 75 F with partliy sunny.  

Over all, there was less cold undercutting total synoptic implications across all guidance... Slightly but perhaps crucially less aggressive in that regard.  I think I speak for the majority at this point, we hope so.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z NAM has a vicious W-E aligned frontal boundary on Wednesday ... It tries to get the region damn close to even freezing rain metro west of Boston. The FOUS grid has 0,0,+3 over Logan, which academically means 0C at the SFC.  It's probably more like 32.9

It's all coming down to where to place this stationary boundary.  The cold side is prooobably being over assessed ( NAM) in this case, but... in principle, we're still looking easily at 40+ deg F of variance across 100 miles or less with this set up -

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z NAM has a vicious W-E aligned frontal boundary on Wednesday ... It tries to get the region damn close to even freezing rain metro west of Boston. The FOUS grid has 0,0,+3 over Logan, which academically means 0C at the SFC.  It's probably more like 32.9

It's all coming down to where to place this stationary boundary.  The cold side is prooobably being over assessed ( NAM) in this case, but... in principle, we're still looking easily at 40+ deg F of variance across 100 miles or less with this set up -

My area is likely porked......maybe CT is okay.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My area is likely porked......maybe CT is okay.

In that solution/depiction? 

No, CT definitely porked too.   Matter of how many inches  haha.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In that solution/depiction? 

No, CT definitely porked too.   Matter of how many inches  haha.  

 

Just going by climo...not the depiction. Didn't look.

[Torch Tiger]

LR gfs is torchy

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

LR gfs is torchy

Just like eps. Makes sense.