2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[MANDA]

Looks like we finish August with .9 ACE points and a feeble 3.6 is the 2026 total to date. 

We'll see that September can deliver.  Looks quiet for the next 5-7 days as least.

 

[vortex95]

On 8/26/2026 at 8:50 AM, Windspeed said:

Long-range operationals this morning across the board are some of the most hostile shear parameters I can recall over the Atlantic Basin for early September in well over a decade. Perhaps even further back past previous dead seasonal peaks. This in of itself is quite fascinating.

Having an exceptional pattern the other way (i.e. very inactive) is of high value b/c it allows us to see the absolute extremes at the other end and what goes on literally that causes it.  Sure, we know very strong El Nino does this to the Atlantic, but not every very strong El Nino is the same and we only have 4 other El Ninos since 1950 on this scale, so odds that when this El Nino is done, we will have witness patterns we have not seen before in the satellite age.

Knowing what suppresses TCs I would argue is just as important as to what favors them.  And 2024 and 2025 w/o El Nino, we had some previously unseen patterns that ripped the heart out of the peak climo part of the season and resulted in busted over-forecasts.  Either it was unusually strong and persistent SALs/TUTTs or the ITCZ displaced unusually far N into the Sahara, and brought to light was the "Atlantic Nina" and its possible role!
 

[vortex95]

On 8/28/2026 at 12:07 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

What's even more interesting about how hostile this season has been is that what does develop barely lasts for more than a day. Arthur, Christobal and Dolly all lasted a single day. What does make it through the grinder can barely even last if it does form.

It makes you wonder prior to the satellite era and modern practices, season that were record quiet, like 1914 (one storm), It is highly likely there were some others just like we have seen this season so far.  Short-lived, weak TSs that we simply did not have capability of detecting them well or at all way back.

But it does not really impact the climo, at least when you go by ACE.  10 weak, short-lived TSs don't even come close to a single, long-tracked, intense Cabo Verde hurricane for total ACE!

[cptcatz]

The UK has been hinting at this system forming in front of Dolly along the SE coast. It was kind of a mystery until now but check out this satellite presentation. Looks like it was on to something.